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Editorial: Georgia PM rules

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – It may sound like a technicality but the move to allow Georgia’s PM to keep his position and campaign to be an MP is an important one.

Rules that meant a sitting PM had to resign before an election were archaic and a hangover from the previous system of government that had steered more power to the president. Then, the PM and parliament were democratic window dressing, a talking house designed to buffer a highly centralised presidential system.

This system needed reform, and it has finally been given this makeover.

Changes to Georgia’s political system, which shifted power from the presidential palace to parliament and the PM, have made its politics more open and vital.

A parliamentary election in October promises to be a hard-fought affair between rivals who have grown to hate one another.

By allowing PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili to keep his job and campaign to become an MP, Georgia is strengthening and modernising its parliamentary system of government.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Chinese payments system expands in Uzbekistan

JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – UnionPay International, the global branch of Chinese bank organisation UnionPay, said it will expand its operations in Uzbekistan, through an agreement with UzCard, an interbank payment system. The company, which operates in all Central Asian countries except Turkmenistan, is looking to expand its coverage at ATMs and card payments across the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

CNPC and Total start arbitration against Tethys over Tajikistan delays

DUSHANBE, JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — China’s CNPC and France’s Total have started arbitration proceedings against Tethys Petroleum, a British oil company focused on Central Asia, for failing to make payments to their joint oil project in Tajikistan.

Tension has been rising between Tethys and its partners at the Bokhtar oil field over the perceived slow progress of its development. Earlier this year, the Tajik government said that it would take back the 25% stake in the Bokhtar field that Tethys, CNPC and Total were developing if progress wasn’t speeded up.

Last year Tethys, the lead partner, missed two payments towards the Bokhtar field. Like the rest of the oil industry, Tethys has been hit by the sharp fall in oil prices over the past year. At the start of this year it was forced to patch together a deal with Olisol, a Kazakh oil company.

In a wide-ranging statement that discussed various parts of its business, Tethys said that CNPC and Total had filed their lawsuit against its subsidiary, Kulob Petroleum, at the International Court of Arbitration in Paris in May. Tethys, CNPC and Total each own one-third of the Bokhtar licence.

“The filed arbitration request is in relation to the Notice of Dispute received by Kulob Petroleum on Jan. 8 2016,” it said in a comment on the press release. Neither CNPC nor Total have commented.

The reference to Jan. 8 was to a notice that CNPC and Total filed against Tethys for breaking the terms of production sharing agreement (PSA) at the Bokhtar development.

For Tajikistan, the disagreements and delays to developing the Bokhtar field are a major disappointment. When Tajikistanagreed the deal to develop a 36,000 square km area in 2013, optimism was high that the development would deliver some of the hydrocarbon wealth it has watched neighbouring Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan grow rich off.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Business comment: BREXIT, Oil & Crisis

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As the results of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership came in early on Friday, the decision to leave the EU has shaken the global market.

The Leave vote has hit the London stock market, where most of the companies focusing on Central Asia and the South Caucasus are listed. Economists now expect more volatility in the short term for the London Stock Exchange.

The so-called Brexit also negatively affected oil prices, sending both Brent and WTI down by 6% in just a few hours. Analysts have said that the period of uncertainty regarding oil prices will now last longer.

Currency markets were also hit, as the British pound lost value against the US dollar, effectively strengthening the greenback.

This had an immediate domino effect on currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where local currencies weakened against the US dollar.

The increasing uncertainty and volatility is now poised to harm, at least in the short term, local markets in the region, prompting elites in from Tbilisi to Astana to brace for more tough times. It will also hit global markets in general, forcing investors to flee to safety and this means missing out Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Now both the Fed in the US and the Bank of England will have to revise their economic policies and this is likely to insulate further their economies and pull investment back from Emerging Markets.

In these uncertain times, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus cannot but hope that Western investors will go against the tide and continue investing in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Azerbaijan’s electricity production falls

JUNE 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Statistics Committee said electricity production fell by 7% in the first five months of the year to 9.3b kWh, compared to the same period last year. Azerbaijan’s thermal power plants, which generate the bulk of electricity in the country, produced 10% less electricity than last year. Hydroelectric power plants increased production by 15%.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

EU bans Kazakh and Kyrgyz airlines

JUNE 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union published an updated list of banned airline companies, which included 19 Kazakh and 13 Kyrgyz companies. Airline safety is still below international safety standards in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, according to most aviation agencies. Air Astana, part-owned by British BAE Systems, is the only airline allowed to fly to the EU.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Auchan opens hypermarket in Tajik capital, its first in Central Asia

DUSHANBE, JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — French hypermarket brand Auchan opened its first store in Tajikistan to local acclaim with crowds of residents thronging to the shop, which has been built on the side of a new shopping mall.

The hypermarket, one of 3,000 Auchan shops around the world and the first in Central Asia, was built by France’s Schiever Group.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also invested 5m euros. According to the EBRD, Tajik people buy products from small shops and at high prices, and building a new hypermarket offers them a new alternative.

The opening of Auchan is also a boost for President Emomali Rakhmon who is under increasing pressure because of the country’s poor economic performance over the past few months.

The currency has dropped in value, inflation has risen and jobs have disappeared.

The four-storey Dushanbe Mall, home to the new Auchan store, has been built next to the headquarters of Tojiksodirotbank, one of the country’s biggest banks. This year, Tojiksodirotbank went into administration.

And Tajiks were excited at the prospect of shopping at the hypermarket. “Everything was good. Some products were cheaper than at street shops,” said Malika, 45.

Others were more skeptical.

“Many say that people do not have any money but look at how crowded this place has become,” said Sharif, a 38-years-old NGO worker.

“As time passes, though, less and less people will come.”

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajik President sets power output goal

JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said electricity generation in his country will grow by three times by 2030. Mr Rakhmon set the power output goal at 45b kWh/year, compared to 17b kWh last year. In addition, Mr Rakhmon said the country’s export potential will grow to 10b kWh/year. Tajikistan is tasked with generating most of the electricity for the CASA-1000 power transmission line to Pakistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

OSCE to monitor contact line between Azerbaijan and Armenia

JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting in St Petersburg hosted by Russian president Vladimir Putin, Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbiajani leader Ilham Aliyev agreed to continue discussions reaching a permanent peace deal over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

They also said that an OSCE mission would be sent to the region to monitor the contact line between the two sides.

The Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe is Europe’s democracy watchdog and conflict resolution group. Its involvement in the disputed region of Nagorno-Ka- Karabakh, which suffered its worst outbreak of fighting in April since a UN-brokered peace deal in 1994, is considered vital.

“The OSCE [will] monitor the line of engagement between the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops near the village of Agdam in Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district on June 22,” Azerbaijan’s defence ministry said in a note following the meeting.

The fighting in April between Azerbaijan’s army and Armenia-backed forces killed several dozen people and looked at one time that it would drag in neighbouring countries and spread.

The two presidents had previously met in Vienna in mid-May. After the St. Petersburg meeting they are likely to schedule another summit to evaluate the progress made in Nagorno- Karabakh. Analysts have said that continued meetings between the two leaders is important.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Manas halts trading before announcing Kyrgyz acquisitions

JUNE 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Australia-based Manas Resources said it halted trading on the Australian Stock Exchange as it prepares the announcement of new acquisition at its Kyrgyz operations. Manas is developing two gold mines in southern Kyrgyzstan. The trading halt is a precautionary measure adopted to avoid speculation over the company’s share price. Trading will resume on June 27, the company said.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)