OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I hear that the Uzbek government sent high-level delegation to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. Why is this news? Surely this is standard practise?
>> It’s certainly not standard practice for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Their bilateral relations have been worse than poor over the past few years. This has been most obvious along their shared borders where soldiers and villagers from each side have squared up. At times it has threatened to develop into conflict, a conflict that the rest of the region has always worried would drag in neighbours. Part of the problem was that Uzbekistan blamed Kyrgyzstan for building a network of hydro projects across its rivers, depriving it of the water that it needs to irrigate its important cotton fields. There are also a series of rows over sovereignty around parts of their shared border in and around the Ferghana Valley. Osh, for example, is in Kyrgyzstan but is home to thousands of Uzbeks.
>> That does sound serious. How was this conflict avoided?
>> Essentially it appears that the death in September of Uzbek president Islam Karimov has been the key to improving bilateral Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations. He had a reputation for being a cantankerous, intransigent man who preferred to keep relations with his neighbours cool. Karimov had been in power since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union and Uzbekistan’s interna- tional relations have been notably cool during this period. The new guy, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, appears to be taking a different tack. Since he was installed as acting president, relations with Kyrgyzstan have improved markedly.
>> So, what specifically has improved?
>> There have been platitudes and visits from either side, handshakes and warm words. This may not sound like a great deal but it is. Impression is every- thing in this instance. The image of Kyrgyz and Uzbek government officials shaking hands and standing together for photo-ops in the Ferghana valley is invaluable for maintaining the peace and reducing tension. The deals and finer details will come later. It’s also important that these get-togethers have been happening around Osh and other towns and cities in the Ferghana Valley. This is the most tense and most ethnically diverse part of Central Asia. Using the Ferghana Valley as the backdrop adds extra weight to these gestures of friendship.
>> Got it. So this is the beginning of something good. What happens next?
>> It’s likely that Mirziyoyev will be confirmed as Uzbekistan’s permanent president at an election in December. If he is committed to improving relations with Kyrgyzstan, this will be a good thing for stability. Central Asia needs Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to be on good terms. We’re also due a meeting between Mirziy- oyev and Almazbek Atambayev, the Kyrgyz president. When this does happen, and it’ll probably be next year as both hold votes in December – Uzbekistan a presi- dential election and Kyrgyzstan a referendum on changing the constitution – we’ll get a better idea of just how far Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations have come.
>> And what is motivating this thaw in relations?
>> It’s not 100% clear. Mirziyoyev may have decided, along with the other Uzbek power brokers, that post- Karimov Uzbekistan needs to set out on a different foreign policy course and that making allies with neighbours and opening up to investors is the right tactics. Of course, the charm offensive may also just be a short-term gimmick ahead of the December election.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
