NOV. 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan has placed an order for 1,500 trucks with Russian manufacturer Kamaz, Russian news agency ITAR-Tass reported. The deal, worth a reported $125m, is a major coup for Kamaz and also underlines other Turkmenistan’s drive to build new infrastructure.
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(News report from Issue No. 209, published on Nov.19 2014)
NOV. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan signed a deal with Turkey to provide gas for a new pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
The deal means that Europe will take delivery of Turkmen gas directly, part of a major proposed new gas route that will avoid using Russian infrastructure.
Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan singed the deal with his Turkmen counterpart Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov during a visit to Ashgabat.
“We attach great significance to deliveries of Turkmenistan’s natural gas to Europe via Turkey,” media quoted him as saying.
“Europe’s energy security is important for us.”
Over the past few years, Turkmenistan has boosted its exports of gas dramatically. China is its main client but it has also sorted out alternatives. Joining the so-called TANAP pipeline is a major boon for Mr Berdymukhamedov as well as for Europe.
The TANAP programme will pump gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz 2, which is under construction, to Central Europe by 2019 although it was always envisaged that other countries would also use the pipeline.
Turkmenistan has previously expressed some interest in sending its gas to Europe but had not unveiled any specific plans. Now that a deal with Turkey has been struck, it seems that Turkmenistan is committed to sending its gas to Europe.
Importantly, though, neither Mr Erdogan nor Mr Berdymukhamedov revealed any of the details of the deal.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan is looking to bolster its military, media reported quoting Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov from a transcript of a meeting at the National Security Council. Mr Berdymukhamedov is concerned about Taliban activity on its border with Afghanistan. Turkmen forces have built strengthen defences in some border areas this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF completed a mission to Turkmenistan and said that economic growth measured between 10% and 11% this year. Importantly the IMF said Turkmenistan was sheltered from the slowdown in neighbouring economies, and in particular Russia, because of its limited exposure to foreign markets.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
OCT. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan may officially be neutral but it is still discussing regional security issues with NATO.
NATO’s liaison officer for Central Asia Alexander Vinnikov met with Turkmen officials to discuss various bilateral security options, media reported. This was the second major security meeting held by Turkmenistan in October. Earlier in the month President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov met with Uzbek President Islam Karimov to discuss cooperation.
The main worry for Turkmenistan is the growing Taliban threat along its border with Afghanistan. The Taliban has increased their activities, triggering the Turkmen military to bolster its defences.
It’s also concerned about a re-galvanised Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU emerged in the 1990s and had targeted Uzbekistan. In the 2000s it joined the Taliban fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan and this year claimed responsibility for an attack on Karachi airport. More recently, the IMU has publicly declared its support for the so-called Islamic State extremist group which is fighting in Syria and Iraq.
If the IMU did become a major threat to Central Asian states once again, Turkmenistan, with all its gas riches and long border with Afghanistan, could well be in its sights.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
NOV. 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkish president Recep Erdogan was due to visit Ashgabat on Nov. 6 for a two-day visit, media reported, his first to Central Asia since switching from being PM to the presidency in August. Mr Erdogan’s visit to Turkmenistan highlights just how important Turkmenistan has become as a global energy supplier.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
OCT. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz officials flew to Turkmenistan to try to buy more electricity. Kyrgyzstan’s reservoirs are about 25% below capacity and its government has said that it is likely to face a power shortage. Kyrgyzstan has already negotiated to increase power imports from Kazakhstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)
OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Croatia’s foreign minister Vesna Pusic began a tour of Central Asia with a stopover in Ashgabat, a rare visit to Turkmenistan by a senior member of a European Union government.
Ms Pusic was on a sales pitch to win more ship-building contracts for the yards in Croatia but the trip was also important symbolically. The more high-ranking visits by officials from Turkmenistan, the more the country enters the mainstream.
Such a visit would practically have been unthinkable under Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov. But Mr Berdymukhamedov has opened up the country and turned it into a regional energy superpower with all the wealth that goes with it.
For Turkmenistan, Croatia’s interest confers a sort of respectability and gives it an ally within the EU. Human rights activists still describe Turkmenistan as one of the most repressive countries in the world with no free media.
Media reports were also candid on what Croatia had, apparently, offered Turkmen officials as a sweetener for contracts — visa free travel for Turkmens holding diplomatic passports and other special passports.
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(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)
OCT. 23 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Relations between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have often been strained but the challenges of dealing with a potential security void once NATO withdraws from Afghanistan is pushing the two neighbours to work together.
Uzbek president Islam Karimov made a rare visit to Ashgabat specifically to discuss how to deal with the Taliban who are hovering around the borders of Central Asia.
Reports earlier this year have said Turkmen forces have crossed the border with Afghanistan to set up more robust check points and defences. Uzbekistan also borders Afghanistan and Mr Karimov will, no doubt, have been keen to hear about the Turkmen experiences.
Uzbekistan also has to deal with a determined Islamic insurgency of its own with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). It is worried that a resurgent Taliban will inspire the IMU.
With both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan outside the Russia-led Collective Security Organisation, both countries appear eager to pool intelligence and experiences for what analysts have said will be a difficult few months, perhaps years, ahead once NATO completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)
OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s Council of Elders, a sort of perfunctory rubber-stamping chamber of deputies which confers some sort of plurality on President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s decisions, declared 2015 at the Year of Neutrality.
The declaration itself is fairly standard but it is important as a reminder that Turkmenistan follows a strictly neutral policy.
This means that while other countries in former Soviet Central Asia are becoming increasingly involved in the Russia-led Customs Union — Kazakhstan is already a member, Kyrgyzstan is on the brink of signing up and Tajikistan is eager — Turkmenistan won’t be joining them.
It also, according to the doctrine, will prevent Turkmenistan from taking sides over potential disputes over ownership of the Caspian Sea and its riches. This is important as tension between the Caspian Sea littoral states has been rising over the past few years.
And then there is also the small matter of the Taliban to consider. They have been increasing their activity around the borders of Central Asia recently, pressuring
Turkmenistan, even, into strengthening is border security.
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(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)