JAN. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s foreign minister Rashid Meredov visited Slovenia for meetings with his Slovenian counterpart, Karl Erjavec (Jan. 26). The talks focused on how to improve business ties between the two countries and are more evidence of stronger links between EU members and Turkmenistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
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JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The drop in the price of gas and oil will hit Turkmenistan’s economy, although it will still grow by nearly 10% in 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its updated growth forecasts. Turkmenistan’s economy is protected somewhat by contracts with China.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan will modernise and increase the size of its military in 2015, media reported quoting the official newspaper. Turkmenistan and other countries bordering Afghanistan have said that they are increasingly worried about the threat from the Taliban.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Ferry service highlights increased trade between Turkmenistan and the rest of the world>>
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Trade between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus and Europe is increasing, a trend underlined by the docking in Baku of a new ferry.
The ferry, operated by a Turkmen company, can carry up to 200 passengers and 53 trucks across the Caspian Sea. Its main role is to cut the journey time down and to aid trade between Turkmenistan and the Europe.
This is a trend which, under current Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, has been accelerating. Mr Berdymukhamedov opened up Turkmenistan in a way that his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, dodged.
Turkmenistan has now not only become a major gas exporter to China and elsewhere but is also a bigger player in global trade.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 10 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran is planning on holding its tenth industrial and trade fair in Ashgabat at the end of February, media reported. This is important because it shows how close relations are between the two countries. US-imposed sanctions have been hitting Iran’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan may increase its gas production by 9% this year, media reported quoting the state information service. Already one of the biggest regional gas producers, Turkmenistan boosted gas exports by 11% last year, mainly to China. The drop in global energy prices will impact the Turkmen government budget.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
>>Sackings come shortly after currency devaluation>>
JAN. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s been a busy start to 2015 for Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. He ordered the devaluation by 20% of the manat on Jan. 1 and now he has sacked both the head of the state gas company Turkmengaz and the head of the Central Bank.
Mr Berdymukhamedov appears frustrated at the relative sluggish nature of recent growth in the Turkmen economy. Much of this can be attributed to the 50% fall in energy prices and the drop in the value of the Russian rouble, so important for the economies of Central Asia.
But Mr Berdymukhamedov said that Turkmengaz head Kakageldy Abdullayev was to blame.
“We could have raised production and exports of liquefied gas and other products which are in great demand on world markets,” Reuters quoted him telling a government meeting.
Mr Berdymukhamedov is fond of culling his top officials. Mr Abdullayev had only been in the job for a year. His replacement was named as Charymuhammed Hommadov.
The day before, Mr Berdymukhamedov had also sacked the head of the Central Bank, the head of the state-run Prezidentbank and also the agriculture bank Daikhanbank.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
DEC. 17 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Villagers in north Afghanistan have threatened to attack Turkmen soldiers who have set up guard posts 30km inside Afghan territory as a buffer against attacks from the Taliban, media reported. Turkmen officials have said that their forces have repelled several Taliban attacks.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
JAN. 1 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan devalued its currency by 19% overnight to try and counter a slump in oil prices.
This was the first manat devaluation in seven years, underlining just how heavily former Soviet states have been hit by the drop in the price of oil and subsequent drop in the value of the Russian rouble.
Bloomberg News quoted data from the Turkmen Central Bank that showed the manat trading at 3.5 to the dollar, a drop from 2.85.
Oil prices are now around $50/barrel, half the price they were trading for earlier in 2014.
Turkmenistan’s economy has boomed over the past few years thanks mainly to gas sales. The price of gas is closely linked to the price of oil. Its main client is China but Europe has also been looking to woo Turkmenistan and so have states in the Gulf and the Indian Subcontinent.
The problem for Turkmenistan is most of its gas contracts are pegged to global markets.
Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov promised plenty of new major infrastructure projects in 2015.
With falling revenues from oil and gas sales, these may now be at risk.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)