JAN. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Tajikistan want to build six new cement-making plants, media reported quoting government officials. Currently Tajikistan is an importer of cement. It wants to become a net exporter of cement. Chinese investment has fueled a building boom in Tajikistan over the past couple of years.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
>>Tajikistan is heavily linked to Russia economy>>
JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan is actively considering applying for membership of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, Belarusian news agency BelTA quoted Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, as saying at a meeting of the Russian parliament.
This is the first major statement this year that Tajikistan still intends to join the trade bloc. It’s also significant because it implies Russia wants Tajikistan in the club.
The Eurasian Economic Union came into existence at the start of the year, replacing the Customs Union. It’s a trade bloc although analysts have said that the Kremlin is looking to use it to promote its own political agenda.
Armenia joined the Eurasian Economic Union on Jan. 1. Kazakhstan and Belarus were already members and Kyrgyzstan is due to join later in the year.
“Tajikistan is also interested and is mulling over the prospects of joining the Eurasian integration processes,” BelTA quoted Mr Nebanzya as saying.
Tajikistan’s economy is closely linked to Russia. It relies on jobs in Russia for its workers, who send back remittances which make up roughly half the country’s GDP.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Libya have said three Tajik nationals died in an attack by Islamic extremists on a luxury hotel in Tripoli. Altogether seven people and three attackers died during the raid. It’s unclear who the Tajik nationals were. The hotel was used by visiting business and political delegations.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
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JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s electricity exports to Afghanistan increased by 38% last year compared to 2013, the Tajik news agency Avesta reported. This is important because hydroelectric power has the potential to become one of Tajikistan’s biggest exports. It needs a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan to realise this potential.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan has formally asked Turkey to extradite Umarali Quvatov, an opposition figure who previously had good links to Tajik president Emmomali Rakhmon. In October the Tajik authorities banned Mr Quvatov’s organisation Group 24. They also said that they wanted to charge him with bribery.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyz media reported that one border guard was killed and two more injured during a gunfight near the frontier with Tajikistan. It is unclear if the gunfight was linked to the ongoing border dispute between the two neighbours or if it is related to smuggling or other crimes.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Tajik CBank can’t afford aggressive defence of somoni again>>
JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s rouble crisis is pushing Tajikistan to the brink of bankruptcy. The Tajik Central Bank has said that it spent half the country’s reserves last year trying to prop up its currency against the falling rouble.
These are worrying times for Central Asia’s governments. A combination of falling oil prices and Russia’s economic turmoil is pressuring their own finances.
Remittances from Russia have fallen sharply in value over the past six months or so, undermining economies in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan especially.
Central Banks have been spending heavily to try to bolster their currencies against a falling Russian rouble but this has proved difficult.
Despite spending half its national reserves — there is now less than $500m left in the Central Bank’s reserves — the value of the Tajik somoni has still fallen over 10% against the US dollar. Inflation has also risen.
All the signs are that 2015 will be complicated too. What the Tajik government can’t afford, though, is another costly battle to defend the somoni.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Tajikistan sentenced one of the country’s most prominent lawyers to nine years in jail for bribery and fraud.
Supporters of Sukhrat Kudratov, the jailed lawyer, said that his real crime was to defend opposition activist and former government official Zaid Saidov in 2013. Saidov was jailed for corruption as well as polygamy.
Certainly the case against Kudratov seems weak and the punishment meted out excessive.
On twitter, Steve Swerdlow of the New York-based Human Rights Watch said: “Jailing of Shurat Kudratov is a serious setback for the freedom of expression and the independent legal profession in Tajikistan.”
As well as being a high profile lawyer prepared to take on human rights cases that others would ignore, Kudratov was a member of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, an opposition party. His name was on their list of candidates for a parliamentary election in March.
Human rights and democracy groups have long criticised Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon for his authoritarian policies. He has been Tajik president since the end of a civil war in the mid-1990s.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan has given the go-ahead for Turkish Coca-Cola Icecek, which produces and distributes Coca-Cola products across Central Asia, to build its first bottling plant in Dushanbe, media reported. The project will cost $50m and generate up to 500 new jobs.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)