FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank ordered all remittances sent from Russia to be paid out in the local somoni currency. The Central Bank said the move was designed to support the somoni. It has lost around a third of its value over the past few months. Remittances to Tajikistan, vital to the economy, are down. Russia is the main source of remittances.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)
FEB. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – IMF representatives met with Tajik government officials in Dushanbe to draw up funding plans for the $2b Rogun hydropower plant. The IMF has said that the World Bank-backed Rogun project, strengthening its banking sector and diversifying the economy are priorities for Tajikistan. Down- stream Uzbekistan has lobbied hard against the Rogun dam.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)
FEB. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – National identity for the countries of Central Asia is still a major issue, far more so than for their neighbours in the South Caucasus.
When independence was thrust on the five Central Asian states in 1991, the leaders of these newly created countries had to build a sense of nation- hood from scratch.
And so they turned to their history books. They dug up some famous names from the past and wrote them up as national heroes and icons.
For Tajikistan, the most significant national hero was Ismail Somoni, the founder of the Samanid dynasty. Tajik officials have pinned their national story, the narrative that they use to give people a sense of nationhood, around the Samanid dynasty. A statue of Somoni dominates central Dushanbe and the national airline and currency are all named after him, as are a host of other institutions and buildings.
Branding is important, even for a country, and Pres. Emomali Rakhmon is probably right to pursue it. He has to make sure, though, that branding doesn’t distract from governing.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(Editorial from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)
JAN. 26 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Taliban militants attacked and badly damaged a power line sending electricity to Afghanistan from Uzbekistan, a warning sign for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan who are hoping to develop a power-supply network to Pakistan across Afghan territory.
The attack in the northern Baghlan district cut power to Kabul and underlined the Taliban’s ability to attack targets, seemingly at will, in the north of the country. Last year it captured the town of Kunduz near the border with Tajikistan. Russia and Central Asian governments have warned that a powerful Taliban threatens to destabilise the region.
Afghanistan has become an increasingly important trade and diplomatic partner for Central Asia. It has developed a series of power supply deals with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Most ambitiously Afghanistan will also host an electricity power line running from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Pakistan, dubbed CASA-1000, and a gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to India, called TAPI.
Both projects need a stable Afghanistan to be successful. The attack on the power line running from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan has severely reduced electricity to Kabul in the short-run and will make policy makers in Central Asia the West nervous in the long-run.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)
JAN. 27 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon appointed his daughter, Ozoda, as head of the Presidential Administration, drawing accusations of nepotism.
Mr Rakhmon has form with appointing family members and friends to important government posts. One of his two sons, Rustam, is head of the government’s anti-corruption agency and had been head of the Tajik football association.
Earlier this month, Tajik MPs also voted to change the country’s constitution and lower the minimum age that a person can stand to be president to 30 from 35. This would allow Rustam, aged 28, to stand for president in 2020.
As for Ozoda, little is known about her. She had previously been a deputy foreign minister and her husband is the deputy head of the Central Bank. She has also studied in the United States.
Mr Rakhmon has been in power in Tajikistan since the end of a civil war in the mid-1990s. He is accused of setting up an authoritarian state. Last year Mr Rakhmon effectively closed down the only legal opposition party, consolidating his grip on power.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)
JAN. 29 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — A recession in Russia and the collapse of the rouble has slowed remittances to Tajikistan and forced thousands of migrant workers back home, pressuring jobs, resources and social infrastructure.
Last week, Russia’s migrant service said that there were only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by a third from last year.
Tajikistan, with its poor, agricultural economy, cannot absorb the increasing number of returning migrants.
Toshboltaev Bozorboy, a 50-year- old man, was one of the returnees. He arrived back in December and said
that he’s been unable to find a job since he flew back to Tajikistan.
“I used to work in construction sites in Moscow earning 20,000 roubles a month ($263) but there is still no other option for me except to leave for Russia,” he said.
The economic downturn started in mid-2014 when oil prices started to fall and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia started to bite. Remittances from workers abroad make up around half of Tajikistan’s GDP and the economic slowdown has had a huge impact. Most Tajiks who lost their jobs in Russia said they were unable to find new jobs in Tajikistan.
Firuz Iskandarov, 23, quit Russia in August 2014. He has been out of work since then.
“Since coming back from Russia, I have done some farming and selling fruits. But that is a seasonal work. I don’t know what we are going to do,” he said, his voice choking with emotion.
For the authorities, returning migrants are a serious issue. A migration expert in Dushanbe said: “For most it will be difficult to find a decent job, and they will not be able to provide for their families. And this can lead to an increase in domestic violence, suicide, and a deterioration in criminal situations in the country.”
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)
JAN. 20 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Hundreds of migrant workers are returning to Tajikistan everyday from Russia where an economic recession has destroyed once solid jobs.
At the international airport, flights from Russia were packed full of swathy, downcast young men dejectedly carrying their belongings in bags.
They told the same story.
They had moved to Moscow, or St Petersburg, or Yekaterinburg, or a host of other Russian cities, in search of work. The usual seasonal jobs, working in factories, on construction sites, cleaning roads. These jobs had seemed safe but a recession in Russia, triggered by a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West, have wiped these out.
According to the Russian Federal Migration Service, there are now only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by nearly 30% from the 1.2m employed this time last year.
Idibek, a 24-year-old man, was standing outside the airport’s terminal building waiting for a friend to pick him up. He had just left his job in a St Petersburg chocolate factory.
“The money I earn is enough only for my living expenses in Russia,” he said.
“I used to make 30,000 roubles, which was around $800, and that was enough for me and my family in Tajikistan. Nowadays, the money I earn is a little bit more than $300.”
He didn’t know whether he would find any work now that he had returned to Tajikistan.
Russia’s economy is so important to Central Asia and the South Caucasus that its woes have hit its near-abroad like a tsunami and wreaked havoc.
Most currencies in the region have fallen by a third or half. Economic forecasts are down and Central Banks and governments are scrambling to rework budgets.
Tajikistan, with its reliance on remittances, is one of the countries hardest hit by the economic downturn in Russia. Its Central Bank has said remittances have dropped by around 40%, a heavy burden for the rest of the economy to shoulder.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)
JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – When it comes to worker remittances from abroad, Tajikistan is the most heavily reliant country in the world.
Transfers from migrant workers, mostly residing in Russia, made up 42% of the country’s GDP in 2014.
But the economic downturn in Russia, which sent the rouble to its historical lowest against the dollar this week, and tougher border controls and regulations have made the life of many Tajiks impossible in Russian cities. Their return en masse to Tajikistan will undoubtedly put pressure on the local job market, which isn’t flourishing either, and also strain the Tajik somoni.
This week, Georgia also published remittances data, highlighting a 39% fall in transfers from Russia.
Together with shrinking trade turnover data, low remittances volumes are a barometer of the worsening economic environment across the entire former Soviet Union. They also underscore Russia’s role as the engine-room of economies in the former Soviet Union.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(Editorial from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)
JAN. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tethys shares dropped to their lowest price since listing in 2011, falling 18% over the last week to 1.75p. Our graph shows its fall since the start of December.
Problems at its operations in Tajikistan may have dented investors’ confidence. China’s CNPC and France’s Total, its partners in the Bokhtar oil project, have said they want Tethys to exit the venture.
Last week, also, the Tajik government joined the fray and said it might expropriate 25% of the licensed area, as production hasn’t started yet.
Commodities prices were stable, after months of depreciation against the US dollar. But this has not helped all miners in the region. In fact, Centerra shares fell, due to the ongoing controversy with its Mongolian operations. On the upside, KAZ Minerals continued its upward trend, thanks to the continued depreciation of the Kazakh tenge. Its costs are in tenge. Its earnings in US dollars.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)
JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon signed a decree forcing all internet traffic into Tajikistan to pass through a single entry point controlled by state-run Tajiktelecom, media reported. The authorities in Tajikistan regularly turn off access to social media websites which they say are being used by Islamic radicals to infiltrate Tajik society.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)