Tag Archives: Tajikistan

EDB to support Tajik Nurek

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Russo-Kazakh Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said it is ready to consider supporting the modernisation of the Nurek hydropower plant, the largest in Tajikistan. In an interview with Avesta, EDB chairman Dmitri Pankin said that, if the government asked for help, the EDB would help fund reconstruction work at the dam together with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The Tajik government had previously said the modernisation will cost $700m.

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(News report from Issue No. 305, published on Nov. 18 2016)

Tajikistan’s debt to GDP ratio rises

NOV. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a speech to parliament to present the government’s budget plans for 2017, Tajikistan’s finance minister Abdusalom Kurboniyon said that the government’s debt measured 36.3% of its GDP, slightly higher than last year. Tajikistan’s debt ratio has been rising over the past couple of years because of an economic downturn triggered by a fall in oil prices and a recession in Russia. In 2014, Tajikistan’s debt to GDP ratio had been around 28%.

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(News report from Issue No. 305, published on Nov. 18 2016)

Stock market: Tethys Petroleum,Olisol

NOV. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — After hovering at around 1.5p for several months, Tethys Petroleum’s share price reached rock bottom at around 0.9p in early November, following increasingly worse news coming from its operations in Kazakhstan.

Its prospective local partner, Olisol, first missed a payment of 9.8m Canadian dollars ($7.3m) and later cancelled Tethys’ gas sales contract in Kazakhstan. It then pulled out completely from its initial offer to become a major shareholder in Tethys.

In addition, Tethys’ local subsidiaries were raided by the Kazakh police and their asset frozen.

The stock price picked up again this week after new potential investors came forward and a Kazakh court dropped the charges against the local subsidiaries. But with much work still to be done before a financing agreement is reached and with a pending legal dispute in Tajikistan, Tethys is far from having found a safe harbour.

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(News report from Issue No. 305, published on Nov. 18 2016)

Tajikistan holds first President’s Day

NOV. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan celebrated its first President’s Day, the latest in a series of awards designed to virtually deify President Emomali Rakhmon.

According to press reports, school children read poems they had written about Mr Rakhmon, libraries displayed various books that Mr Rakhmon has written and military units paraded under the slogan “Our president, our leader”.

Officially, the new holiday was designed to celebrate 25 years of independence but critics of Mr Rakhmon have said that this is just the latest step in an increasingly aggressive move to create a dominating personality cult. They say that this is a knee-jerk reaction to worsening economic conditions, the growing threat of the Taliban in Afghanistan and, simply, old age and an accelerating sense of his own mortality.

Mr Rakhmon has accrued a number of titles over the years including Leader of the Nation, and Founder of the Peace and Accord.

Earlier this year, too, he introduced a national flag day and the Eurasianet website reported that Tajikistan had introduced a Diplomat Day on Sept. 29, the 23rd anniversary of his first speech to the United Nations General Assembly.

Over the past few years, Mr Rakhmon has rounded on his opponents – tracking down and imprisoning alleged Islamists, outlawing his nearest rivals, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan – and promoted his son and daughter into increasingly powerful positions.

In power since the mid-1990s, Mr Rakhmon, who is 64-years-old, has also changed the constitution to, seemingly, allow his son to take over as president from him.

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(News report from Issue No. 305, published on Nov. 18 2016)

Uzbeks and Tajiks face Taliban threat

NOV. 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A senior Afghan army commander in the north of Afghanistan said that the Taliban was encouraging Uzbek and Tajik radical militants to infiltrate Central Asia. The Pajhwork reported that Lt. Gen. Sher Aziz Kamawal had said that the Taliban was using instability in Kunduz region, on the border with Uzbekistan, as a launchpad for militants to move into Central Asia. Governments in Central Asia have been increasingly concerned about Taliban encroachment north.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Comment: C.Asia and S.Caucasus eye up a Trump presidency, says Kilner

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Donald Trump, the incoming US president, has a long list of issues that need tackling in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, not least the dominance of China and Russia.

Central Asia, in particular, has traditionally been an arena where the world’s great powers have shadow-boxed, testing each other’s strengths and weaknesses. This is just as true today as it was during the 19th century’s Great Game between Russia and Britain. Now, though, China has entered the fray and the West is led by the US and not Britain.

Since NATO withdrew most of its forces from Afghanistan in 2013/14, US interest in Central Asia has waned and it has ceded diplomatic, economic and cultural influence to Russia and China.

When she was Secretary of State between 2009 and 2013, Hillary Clinton promoted a new north-south Silk Road running from Central Asia to India. This was to be US soft power in action, a commercial push to rival influences exerted by China through its loans and by Russia through its diplomatic and energy levers. It hasn’t shaped up to much, and Clinton wont now be able to see it through, but Trump, a businessman and reality TV star, may be well-placed to invigorate this north-south Silk Road.

Governments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus will also be watching his policies on NATO, Russia and Iran.

Georgia has, perhaps, the most to be concerned about. It has struck out on a determinedly Western direction and needs a strong US and NATO as a counterpoint to Russia. If the US’ commitment to NATO wanes, Georgia will be more vulnerable to Russian aggression. Certainly its two breakaway states, Russia-backed Abkhazia and South Ossetia, will feel emboldened.

Barack Obama brought Iran back into the international community by partly lifting sanctions linked to the development of its nuclear sector. Its reemergence was heralded in Central Asia and the South Caucasus as an opportunity. They will be looking to a US led by Trump to boost, and not deflate, Iran’s place in the world. They want Iran to be an economic driver.

And the US’ relationship with Russia is important too. If US-Russia relations don’t improve, and the Russian economy continues to shrink, this filters through to Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

They will be looking for an improvement in US- Russia relations to generate a boost for the Russian economy.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Tajiks and Russian resolve aviation row

NOV. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Tajik aviation authority agreed to give Russia’s Ural Air a licence to fly from Moscow’s Zhukovsky airport to Dushanbe and Khujand, dampening a row that had been intensifying. Last week, after Tajikistan’s initial refusal to allow flights from Zhukovsky, Russia’s aviation committee threatened to cut air links with Tajikistan. Under the new agreement, Tajikistan also won permission to open new routes to Ufa, Chelyabinsk and Barnaul.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Georgia and regional governments welcome Trump election win

TBILISI, NOV. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Governments across Central Asia and the South Caucasus welcomed Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election on Nov. 4 and heralded it as an opportunity for the US to increase its engagement in the region.

Analysts have said that under President Barack Obama, the US’ interest in Central Asia and the South Caucasus has dropped. Both President Obama’s Secretary of States, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, visited the South Caucasus and Central Asia but since the US and NATO pulled most of its forces out of neighbouring Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014, its interest has waned.

The only US president to have visited the region was George W. Bush in May 2005. He visited Tbilisi when Mikheil Saakashvili was president. Georgia is the US’ biggest ally in the region, sending its army to fight in both Iraq and Afghanistan and Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili welcomed Mr Trump’s win.

“I would like to extend my sincere congratulations to Donald J. Trump on his victory in the presidential elections,” he said. “American people voted for change, oriented on making US even stronger.”

His sentiments were echoed by other regional leaders but reaction on the street was less clear cut. In Almaty Aidana Omarova, a university lecturer, said she was appalled that Mr Trump had won the election.

“I cannot even imagine how such a sexist, racist and rude person can lead the US,” she said.

In Tbilisi Nana, a lawyer, was worried. “He wants to improve relations with Russia, that’s not very good for Georgia, in case we need support from the US,” she said. “Secondly he was extremely negative about immigrants and I know there are lots of Georgians who work in America and send money to their families.”

But in Dushanbe, Jakhongir, 29, a website developer, had a different viewpoint. He said the US election had been a great democratic exercise.

“I wish we could have such interesting elections debates here in Tajikistan, too,” he said. “Let’s see how Trump will behave, I think he will be more restrained in his words and actions now.”

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Grounded flights in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Air traffic in Central Asia and the South Caucasus continues to suffer from the regional economic slump, as major international carriers cut flights and leave the market to fickle domestic players.

Most notably this year, British Airways cut its London-Baku link, the last remaining destination for the British flag carrier in the region. The connection had lasted over 20 years, ever since BP started to negotiate the so-called Contract of the Century.

Demand for air transport, however, has shrunk, especially in the business market. Low

commodity prices have made many regional business unprofitable. This, added together with some damaging reputational issues, such as the delisting of Kazakhstan’s ENRC from the London Stock Exchange, have made many Western businesses wary of the region.

So it’s not surprising that Turkish Airlines dropped its connections with Osh and Khujand when it decided to downsize its global network because of a drop in demand. The second-largest cities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan just cannot make the cut for commercially viable air links.

Turkmenistan’s new flights to Georgia were also postponed indefinitely this week, a sign that even diplomatically-motivated aviation routes need to be profitable.

On the positive, the Russian and Tajik aviation committees agreed a deal to end their short-lived dispute over routes. This is important, vitally important, for Tajikistan’s migrant workforce who rely so heavily on Russia for their income.

Air routes have become part of a modern-day annual commute for people in developing countries, needed to carry them to waiting jobs.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Turkish cuts flights to Tajik and Kyrgyz cities

NOV. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish Airlines, Turkey’s flagship carrier, dropped Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city, and Khujand, a major city in northern Tajikistan, as destinations in a global revision of its connections. Turkish said it was suspending flights to 22 destinations and making around 30 aircrafts redundant in an effort to focus only on profitable routes.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)