Tag Archives: remittances

Kyrgyz imports fall

AUG. 28 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The value of imports into Kyrgyzstan fell by nearly 17% in the first half of the year, media reported by quoting official statistics. The data, while not giving specifics, still highlighted the economic slowdown in the region. Kyrgyzstan, like the other Central Asian countries, has been dealing with dropping remittances from Russia and a sharp fall in the value of its currency.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)

Comment: Remittance drop

JULY 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — For Kyrgyzstan, gold is its most important commodity, the Kumtor gold mine in the east of the country is its most important mine and Switzerland is its most important export market.

Last week, the government released data on trade turnover, which showed a marginal downturn, due mostly to the regional crisis triggered by the downfall of the rouble. A strong dollar and low oil prices have damaged the economic outlook for the whole region, especially for countries, like Kyrgyzstan, which rely heavily on foreign remittances. It was not a surprise to see trade shrink by 12% in January-May 2015, as compared to the same period last year.

An accurate data analysis, however, also told of another underlying story. Out of the eight major markets for Kyrgyz exports, the only two to grow were Switzerland (2.2 times larger than in 2014) and the British Virgin Islands (almost 4 times larger).

Centerra Gold, owners of the Kumtor gold mine, had a much better start in 2015 than it had in 2014 and trade with Switzerland, the main importer of Kyrgyz gold, was automatically boosted. Switzerland now accounts for 48% of Kyrgyz exports.

Kyrgyzstan is heavily betting on Switzerland to keep its cash flow steady. The one warning sign on the horizon is that gold has dipped to a 5-year low.

By Paolo Sorbello, Deputy Editor, The Conway Bulletin

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(News report from Issue No. 241, published on July 23 2015)

Money transfers to Georgia drop

JULY 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – TBILISI — Overall money transfers to Georgia in the first half of 2015 declined by 22.7% to $538m, media reported quoting the sta- tistics agency, a heavy dent in Georgia’s overall income.

Remittances from Russia, which is suffering from a downturn in its economy, dropped by over 40% to $204m and from Greece, which is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, by 19% to $83m.

Last year, the data showed, remittances accounted for nearly 9% of Georgia’s overall GDP, a figure which highlights their importance to the country.

Georgia’s lari currency has also lost around 25% of its value since November 2014, putting more pressure on the economy.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)

Remittances to Armenia drop

JULY 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Remittances to Armenia in the first half of the year were down 33% to $408m, the Central Bank said. This is consistent with other countries in the south Caucasus which are struggling to cope with the fall out from a recession in Russia and a drop in oil prices.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)

Greek econ woes hit Georgia

JULY 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – TBILISI — Remittances from Greece to Georgia have dropped by nearly a fifth this year because Greek financial meltdown, deputy finance minister Giorgi Kakauridze said.

And Greece is a vital of income for Georgia. Russia, Greece is Georgia’s most important source of remittances.

“The situation in Greece will of course affect money transfers to Georgia, but remittances are already significantly reduced not only from Greece, but from other sources as well, so it will not have a significant effect on the Georgian economy anymore,” Mr Kakauridze told the Rustavi-2 television station.

Georgia, Russia and Greece are all predominantly Christian Orthodox countries.

Overall remittance flows to Georgia have fallen by 23% to $438m in the first five months of this year. Remittances from Greece were down 18% to $69m. From Russia, remittances had fallen by 42% to $163m.

Greece has defaulted on an IMF loan repayment and it is holding a referendum on Sunday to decide whether to accept tighten bailout rules. It’s banks have placed currency controls on withdrawals.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 238, published on July 2 2015)

Remittances to Tajikistan fall sharply

JUNE 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – DUSHANBE – Remittances from Tajik workers in Russia to Tajikistan have dropped by 44% this year, the Russian Central Bank said.

This is inline with World Bank projections and highlights the economic problems facing Tajikistan and other countries in Central Asia. Russia’s economy has dipped into recession because of a combination of falling oil prices and economic sanctions imposed by the West in retaliation for the Kremlin’s alleged support for rebels in east Ukraine.

And this recession has hit Tajikistan and other countries in Central Asia hard. Remittances account for roughly half of Tajikistan’s economy.

In Dushanbe, the mood on the streets was glum.

Amirbek Saidbekov, a Dushanbe resident, said life had gotten harder.

“The money they send home has declined by about a half,” he said. “The money my uncle sends is not enough to provide for his family. The life quality of his family has worsened now.”

Shuhrat Murodilloev, a Dushanbe-based political scientist, said the drop in remittance was having a knock-on effect.

“Market employment is falling because of the decreased sales and the unstable Tajik currency,” he said. “Many people have lost their jobs in the market because there is no money coming from Russia.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 238, published on July 2 2015)

Worker migration from Tajikistan to Russia falls

JUNE 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The number of migrant workers travelling from Tajikistan to Russia fell by 15% during the first half of the year, according to data from the ministry of labour.

The statistics, which run from January to mid-June 2015, showed that about 315,000 workers travelled from Tajikistan to Russia to find work, 52,000 less than in 2014.

Most have been put off by the drop in Russian economic output, which has knocked job opportunities.

Tajik labour migration to Kazakhstan, though, has increased by 33%, although the absolute numbers are small in comparison with Russia. The data showed that 4,800 workers from Tajikistan had travelled to Kazakhstan to find work, up from 1,200 in 2014.

Remittances from migrant workers are key to Tajikistan’s economy. A World Bank report forecast a 40% drop in remittances to Tajikistan this year because of the poor state of the Russian economy and the collapse of the Tajik somoni.

The new ministry of labour data adds credence to this worsening economic picture.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 237, published on June 25 2015)

MoneyGram to operate in Turkmenistan

JUNE 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – MoneyGram International, a money wire transfer service, said that it had set up operations in Turkmenistan. MoneyGram’s entry into Turkmenistan will be boost to remittance flows which rely heavily on easy wire transfer services.

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(News report from Issue No. 237, published on June 25 2015)

Uzbek President signs billion dollar deals in S.Korea

MAY 28-30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek President Islam Karimov completed a three day state visit to South Korea which laid the foundations to further develop relations between the two countries.

Mr Karimov and South Korean president Park Geun-hye signed deals worth $7.7b. The agreements cover many sectors ranging from financial to medical to agriculture sectors.

Compare the $7.7b worth of deals to trade between Uzbekistan and South Korea of $1.9b last year.

Mr Karimov appears to have deliberately chosen South Korea for his first foreign trip following his re-election in March for two important reasons.

South Korea is a close ally of the West, and a reception in Seoul offers Mr Karimov’s recognition and credence, and may serve as a stepping-stone for recognition by other capitals.

It is also important to note that Mr Karimov chose a country to visit that would not irritate either Moscow or Washington.

And there is also a cold, hard economic reason for choos- ing to visit South Korea so soon after winning re-election. Mr Karimov needs hard currency to boost the economy, which has been in a downward spiral since Western sanctions hit Russia and dented remittances.

South Korea and Uzbekistan are closely linked. The Soviet Dictator moved thousands of Koreans to Uzbekistan in the 1930s and 1940s.

There is still a large Korean diaspora living in Uzbekistan and, as well as being an important investor in Uzbekistan, after Russia and Kazakhstan, South Korea generates the most remittance flow.

An agreement from Mr Karimov’s trip to Seoul on the mutual recognition of drivers’ licenses also suggested that the two parties are expecting closer ties between the countries.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 234, published on June 4 2015)

Armenia’s PM bullish on GDP growth

JUNE 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s economic picture this year is emerging. Its GDP increased by 2.2% in the first quarter of the year compared with 3.1% in January-March 2014. A slight drop, but not as bad as it could be.

On a trip to the city of Artashat, outside Yerevan, PM Hovik Abrahamyan said that he was pleased with the how the data was emerging.

“We have 2.3% (economic activity) growth for the first 4 months which is usually passive,” he said.

“The programs that we are implementing and the laws we are adopting can become the basis by which we will surely have more than 2.3% economic growth. We will do everything to reach 4.1% GD growth tar- get,” he said.

Like the rest of the region, the impact of falling oil prices on Russia’s economy twinned with sanctions have rippled wider and hit the South Caucasus and also Central Asia.

Mr Abrahamyan said Armenia may be able to reach GDP growth of 4.1% this year because of a number of projects in the pipeline. He highlighted increased agriculture activity of 6.6% in the first quarter of the year and a redress on the remittances’ reduction expected from Russia.

The IMF and the World Bank have said that remittances will drop by up to 40%. The Armenian Central Bank said that the figure is likely to be nearer 25% or 30%. And this is really the crux. If remittances fall sharply, GDP will too.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 234, published on June 4 2015)