Tag Archives: remittances

Remittances to Georgia fall, again

MARCH 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Remittances to Georgia fell again in February to $79.9m, a 2.6% decline on the year. Notably, money transfers from Russia and Greece continued to decline sharply while remittances from Italy, the US and Israel showed positive growth. As transfers from Greece have dramatically declined to around $8.5- $9.5m/month, Italy now ranks second behind Russia in the ranking of countries sending money to Georgia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 273, published on March 25 2016)

Moody downgrades Armenia’s bonds

MARCH 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – International ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Armenia’s government bonds to B1 from Ba3, as the economic crisis continues to bite. Moody’s said Armenia continues to be vulnerable to external factors, such as “declining remittances from Russia that have not yet bottomed out,” the agency said in a press statement. Moody’s also said the downgrade is linked to the worsening debt/GDP ratio.

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(News report from Issue No. 273, published on March 25 2016)

Economic downturn threatens to shut Georgian factories

MARCH 11 2016, RUSTAVI, Georgia (The Conway Bulletin) — The growing economic malaise is starting to bite in Georgia. Just ask 51-year-old Manana who works at the Azot chemical plant in Rustavi, an industrial town around 25km from Tbilisi.

The factory, which employs 2,000 people, is faced with closure within a month unless it can secure a reduction in the price it pays for gas.

“I don’t know what I would do, if they really close for good,” she said. Her face wrinkled, she sighed and then turned towards the entrance of the Soviet-built factory. Today she would work but she wasn’t sure what the future held.

This is a story playing out across Georgia, where industrial unrest is growing as the lari currency drops in value and inflation starts to rise. Like the rest of the region, vital remittances from abroad, mainly Russia, have fallen and frustration is growing with the government.

Factories and mines are reporting worker unrest and bosses are warning of closures and redundancies.

Revaz Karanadze is an activist with the Tbilisi Solidarity Network, a grassroots organisation supporting regional labour protests. She said falling global oil prices had undermined the economy.

“The economic situation in the region, and especially oil-producing neighbour Azerbaijan, hits the factory and mining,” she said.

The Azot chemical plant produces fertilisers, as well as ammonia, sodium cyanide, nitric acid and liquid oxygen. It uses more than 300m cubic meters of gas per year, the highest consumption in Georgia. Two-thirds of its costs are gas.

The problem is that it negotiated an 8 year price deal for gas in 2011 when oil prices, which drive gas prices, were around $115/barrel. They are now around a third of that price.

Georgian ministers and SOCAR, the Azerbaijani state-owned company that supplies the gas, have said that a deal is in sight but Manana, the factory worker, was less optimistic.

“They always say it’ll get better, but we are not the only ones struggling. Who knows what tomorrow will bring,” she said.

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(News report from Issue No. 271, published on March 11 2016)

Tajikistan raises interest rate

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 9%, its first rise since December 2014. It said it needed to try to protect the value of its somoni currency which has lost around half its value over the past year. A recession in Russia has hit Tajikistan hard, as its economy relies on remittances sent back by workers living in Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Economic woes take Tajikistan

FEB. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The amount of cash flowing into the Tajik government’s coffers is slowing, media reported quoting the ministry of finance. It said, without giving specifics, that in January, it only hit 87.7% of its target inflow. Tajikistan has been heavily hit by the worsening economic conditions across the region. Remittances from Russia, a vital source of income, have fallen by 50%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 268, published on Feb. 19 2016)

Tajikistan pays remittances in somoni

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank ordered all remittances sent from Russia to be paid out in the local somoni currency. The Central Bank said the move was designed to support the somoni. It has lost around a third of its value over the past few months. Remittances to Tajikistan, vital to the economy, are down. Russia is the main source of remittances.

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(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Returning Tajik migrants pressure social systems

JAN. 29 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — A recession in Russia and the collapse of the rouble has slowed remittances to Tajikistan and forced thousands of migrant workers back home, pressuring jobs, resources and social infrastructure.

Last week, Russia’s migrant service said that there were only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by a third from last year.

Tajikistan, with its poor, agricultural economy, cannot absorb the increasing number of returning migrants.

Toshboltaev Bozorboy, a 50-year- old man, was one of the returnees. He arrived back in December and said

that he’s been unable to find a job since he flew back to Tajikistan.

“I used to work in construction sites in Moscow earning 20,000 roubles a month ($263) but there is still no other option for me except to leave for Russia,” he said.

The economic downturn started in mid-2014 when oil prices started to fall and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia started to bite. Remittances from workers abroad make up around half of Tajikistan’s GDP and the economic slowdown has had a huge impact. Most Tajiks who lost their jobs in Russia said they were unable to find new jobs in Tajikistan.

Firuz Iskandarov, 23, quit Russia in August 2014. He has been out of work since then.

“Since coming back from Russia, I have done some farming and selling fruits. But that is a seasonal work. I don’t know what we are going to do,” he said, his voice choking with emotion.

For the authorities, returning migrants are a serious issue. A migration expert in Dushanbe said: “For most it will be difficult to find a decent job, and they will not be able to provide for their families. And this can lead to an increase in domestic violence, suicide, and a deterioration in criminal situations in the country.”

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(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Thousands of migrant workers return to Tajikistan from Russia

JAN. 20 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Hundreds of migrant workers are returning to Tajikistan everyday from Russia where an economic recession has destroyed once solid jobs.

At the international airport, flights from Russia were packed full of swathy, downcast young men dejectedly carrying their belongings in bags.

They told the same story.

They had moved to Moscow, or St Petersburg, or Yekaterinburg, or a host of other Russian cities, in search of work. The usual seasonal jobs, working in factories, on construction sites, cleaning roads. These jobs had seemed safe but a recession in Russia, triggered by a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West, have wiped these out.

According to the Russian Federal Migration Service, there are now only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by nearly 30% from the 1.2m employed this time last year.

Idibek, a 24-year-old man, was standing outside the airport’s terminal building waiting for a friend to pick him up. He had just left his job in a St Petersburg chocolate factory.

“The money I earn is enough only for my living expenses in Russia,” he said.

“I used to make 30,000 roubles, which was around $800, and that was enough for me and my family in Tajikistan. Nowadays, the money I earn is a little bit more than $300.”

He didn’t know whether he would find any work now that he had returned to Tajikistan.

Russia’s economy is so important to Central Asia and the South Caucasus that its woes have hit its near-abroad like a tsunami and wreaked havoc.

Most currencies in the region have fallen by a third or half. Economic forecasts are down and Central Banks and governments are scrambling to rework budgets.

Tajikistan, with its reliance on remittances, is one of the countries hardest hit by the economic downturn in Russia. Its Central Bank has said remittances have dropped by around 40%, a heavy burden for the rest of the economy to shoulder.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Editorial: Tajikistan’s remittances

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – When it comes to worker remittances from abroad, Tajikistan is the most heavily reliant country in the world.

Transfers from migrant workers, mostly residing in Russia, made up 42% of the country’s GDP in 2014.

But the economic downturn in Russia, which sent the rouble to its historical lowest against the dollar this week, and tougher border controls and regulations have made the life of many Tajiks impossible in Russian cities. Their return en masse to Tajikistan will undoubtedly put pressure on the local job market, which isn’t flourishing either, and also strain the Tajik somoni.

This week, Georgia also published remittances data, highlighting a 39% fall in transfers from Russia.

Together with shrinking trade turnover data, low remittances volumes are a barometer of the worsening economic environment across the entire former Soviet Union. They also underscore Russia’s role as the engine-room of economies in the former Soviet Union.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Remittances fall to Georgia

JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Total remittances to Georgia fell by 25% in 2015 to $1.08b, mainly because of a sharp slowdown in the Russian economy, the Central Bank said. Remittances from Russia fell by 39% to $433m and from Greece (Georgia’s second largest remittance originator) by 42.5% to $118m. A slowdown in Russia’s economy has rippled out across the former Soviet Union.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)