DEC. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s Democratic party formally put President Kurbangkuly Berdymukhamedov forward as its candidate in an election set for February. Mr Berdymukhamedov has been in power for a decade. He is likely to easily win the presidential election. No Western vote monitors have ever judged an election in Turkmenistan to be either free or fair.
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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)f
DEC. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shavkat Mirizoyev was formally sworn in as Uzbekistan’s second post- Soviet president.
At his swearing-in ceremony, Mr Mirizyoyev promised to continue along the path that had been set by his predecessor Islam Karimov.
“Today, as I assume the post of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, I comprehensively and deeply feel and realise as a head of state the very enormous responsibility on my shoulders,” he said according to his press office. “And (I promise) to continue the work of the great state and political figure, our dear teacher Islam Karimov.”
Although he has pledged to follow a course set by Karimov, Mr Mirizoyev has already worked to open up the country, making peace deals with neighbours, granting visa-free entrance to foreign nationals and promising to liberalise Uzbekistan’s strict currency rules.
Mr Mirziyoyev also announced key positions in his cabinet including promoting Abdulla Aripov, his ally, as PM and demoting Rustam Azimov who had been finance minister. Mr Azimov’s demotion took analysts by surprise as he had been seen as one of the key ministers now running the country. By contrast, Mr Aripov had been sacked by Karimov in 2012 and only reinstated to the cabinet after he died in September.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)
TASHKENT, DEC. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Even last month, it was clear to Uzbeks who was going to win a presidential election on Dec. 4.
“It is already known who is going to be our new president,” laughed Farkhod, 55, a resident of Samarkand. “But still I am fine with him.”
The “him” is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan’s PM and acting president since Islam Karimov died on Sept. 2.
And on a tour of Uzbekistan’s two main cities — Tashkent and Samarkand — Mr Mirziyoyev appeared to be a genuinely popular choice to replace Karimov. He’s also had the advantage of looking presidential by leading Karimov’s funeral and hosting various world leaders, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Erdogan.
For Saidaziz, 21, a student in Tashkent, stability was the key issue. “I am going to vote for Mirziyoyev, as it seems that he is going to continue the line of Islam Karimov,” she said.
Not everybody is as enthusiastic, though. An Uzbek academic who preferred not to be named said that Mr Mirziyoyev had a reputation for being excessively strict.
“As far as I know, Karimov did not choose Mirziyoyev as his successor, as he was aware of the methods the latter prefers to use,” he said in hushed tones between sips of tea in a Tashkent cafe.
Still, for most Uzbeks, Mr Mirziyoyev’s moves to open up the country and to create jobs through major infrastructure projects are welcome.
The economy has been in the doldrums for two years and needs stimulating. Alexander, a 54-year-old plumber in Tashkent said that a change of president would have little impact on ordinary people.
“The elite will decide who becomes president, without our participation, but there won’t be any revolution from ordinary Uzbeks,” he said. “Creating a stable political system, like the one in America is more important task.”
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(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
NOV. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a carefully orchestrated show of modesty, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev declined to rename Astana, the capital city he built on Kazakhstan’s windswept steppe, after himself. He made the announcement during an interview with Russia-24. Parliament had made the suggestion earlier in November. Mr Nazarbayev critics accuse him of building a personality cult. Mr Nazarbayev has appeared more interested in burnishing his image and legacy over the past few years, allowing statues of himself to be built and appearing on a new bank note. Analysts had said he may fancy renaming Astana after himself.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
DEC. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s State Commission on the Protection of Economic Competition said the government had wasted millions of dollars after it gave a contract in 2012 to a single company called Berriutyun to supply fertilisers across the country. There had previously been multiple suppliers. The commission said Berriutyun, linked to a former finance minister, had artificially increased prices by 36%.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
ALMATY, NOV. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in western Kazakhstan sentenced the organisers of a land protest earlier this year to five years in prison, triggering outrage from their supporters and human rights workers.
The two men, Max Bokayev and Talgat Ayan, were convicted of inciting social unrest, spreading false information and creating public disorder. They pleaded not guilty and have said that they were just exercising their right to protest against land reforms which the government planned to introduce.
Reports from the courtroom said that supporters of the two men sung the national anthem and shouted “Freedom!” when they were driven away in a police van.
Mihra Rittmann, Europe and Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the two men had been jailed for political reasons.
“Jailing Bokayev and Ayan for nothing more than peacefully expressing dissenting views is an outrageous miscarriage of justice,” she said. “Max Bokayev and Talgat Ayan should be freed immediately.”
For the authorities, the jail sentences marked the final clampdown on a unprecedented period of unrest.
It started in April in Atyrau with a local protest organised by Bokayev and Ayan against the government’s reforms which focused on making it easier for foreigners to buy and own land in Kazakhstan.
The protests, though, gathered pace and within a fortnight had spread to major urban centres across the country, worrying Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev. In some cities, protesters fought with riot police. They only stopped when he intervened, repealed the proposed reforms and sacked a handful of government officials.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
DEC. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shavkat Mirziyoyev will be confirmed as Uzbekistan’s president at an election on Dec. 4, a move that bodes well for ordinary Uzbeks, for the country’s neighbours and for investors. Potentially at least.
Mirziyoyev will govern with a core team of ministers that includes Rustam Inoyatov, the Uzbek intelligence chief, and finance minister Rustam Azimov. They take over from Islam Karimov, a difficult, cantankerous man who died from a stroke on Sept. 2 after ruling for 25 years.
Uzbekistan is one of the most secretive and closed-off regimes in the world but if the early signs are borne out, and there needs to be plenty of caveats, the tantalising prospect of a more open Uzbekistan is in sight.
Uzbeks need permission to leave, a deeply entrenched network of informants keeps tabs on people’s activities, forced labour is used each year to pick the massive cotton harvest, opposition journalists and politicians are locked up, corruption is beyond rife and foreign investors have found it all but impossible to keep their assets from being grabbed by the state.
Now Mirziyoyev has appeared to want to move Uzbekistan onto a new trajectory. He has talked up the prospect of investing in large infrastructure projects which will create jobs. He has also promised to strengthen the independence of the Uzbek courts and said that police will now no longer be able to raid businesses and shops on the pretext of various transgressions, an issue which had stifled private business.
Of course, talk and signing documents is cheap but importantly, also, Mirziyoyev has looked to improve relations with Uzbekistan’s neighbours, in particular with Kyrgyzstan.
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have for years argued over their shared border around the Ferghana Valley and at times this year, conflict has appeared likely. Now, since Karimov’s death, Mirziyoyev has ordered his officials to mend relations with Kyrgyzstan. Officials from both sides have posed for photo-ops shaking hands and documents have been signed agreeing deals on the border disputes.
Under Karimov, this detente had never seemed likely. Under Mirziyoyev Uzbek-Kyrgyz relations have suddenly never been better.
These are early days, and we are not about to witness a tectonic shift towards full-scale liberalism but increments are important and Uzbekistan under its new leadership may be headed in a more benign direction.
By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
NOV. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE’s election monitoring arm, ODHIR, started its short-term mission in Uzbekistan ahead of the Dec. 4 presidential election. ODHIR’s long-term mission has been in Uzbekistan since the start of November. This is its biggest ever mission to Uzbekistan, where ODHIR has never judged an election to be either free or fair. Islam Karimov died in September after ruling the country for 25 years.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
ALMATY, NOV. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with Bloomberg News, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appeared to cautiously rule out a straight handover of power to a family member.
The 76-year-old leader also said that he would be prepared to govern for another five year term from 2020 if he felt well enough and had strong enough public support.
Speculation has been mounting for years over Mr Nazarbayev’s succession plans. Many analysts have suggested that Mr Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Dariga who is now a senator, may be being lined up to take over from him.
“I’m not envisaging succession for my children, I don’t think that’s a question for us,” he said. “Our transfer of power is spelled out by the constitution.”
This nuanced reply appears to suggest that Mr Nazarbayev’s successor will have to win power through an election, as the constitution states. Western vote monitors, though, have never judged an election in Kazakhstan to be either free or fair.
And, on the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election this month, Mr Nazarbayev said he was confident the incoming US President would mend US-Russia relations, a positive step forward for global international relations.
“The best democratisation, say of Russia and all countries, is to have the West in friendly relations with all of us,” he said.
Kazakhstan is dealing with a sharp economic downturn triggered by a collapse in oil prices and a recession in Russia. Mr Nazarbayev also said in the interview that he was looking to strengthen the banking system.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)
NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> In his interview with Bloomberg, Nazarbayev says that he won’t hand power to his children. What do you think he means by this?
>> If you read the interview closely, it is not as clear as that. He says in the interview that he “doesn’t envisage succession for his children” and that it is “not a question for us”. Instead he says that it is up to the Kazakh people to decide through the constitution. This, of course, means through an election. I think that Nazarbayev has deliberately left this ambiguous. He is certainly not ruling out encouraging one of his two daughters, or their children, to take over form him but he is saving that whoever does will have to win a presidential election to earn legitimacy.
>> So you don’t think it is as clear cut as the Bloomberg headline writers make out. They were definitive and gave the story the headline: ‘Kazakh President Nazarbayev Says Power Won’t Be Family Business’.
>> That’s right. I think that he is leaving his options open, fully open. Of course, he can’t sit there in a Bloomberg interview and say that he favours handing over power to Dariga which, as we have said, is a likely scenario. Instead he has to say that the constitution has to be respected and the people have to decide. This can easily be manipulated to give Nazarbayev the result he wants. He just needs his Nur Otan party to select his chosen candidate and then for an election to pass this off successfully. Don’t forget that Western observers have never judged an election in Kazakhstan to be free fair. This generally means that the Kazakh elite can host can election but still generate the results that they need.
>> Right. So, when the time is right, Nur Otan picks Nazarbayev’s favoured candidate. An election is called which this candidate wins. This means that the constitution has been respected and the people have made their choice. Is that right?
>> That process would certainly fit with the process that Nazarbayev described in his Bloomberg interview. We don’t know who he favours but his interview with Bloomberg, in our view, certainly did not reduce Dariga’s chances of becoming his successor.
>> What else was important to pick up on in the interview?
>> I actually think that it’s important that Nazarbayev said he’d be happy to stay on as president past 2020. This had been the date we’d been expecting him to stand aside, he will be 80-years-old in 2020, but he’s now signalled that he is no rush to sort out the succession issue in Kazakhstan and that he’d be prepared to wait until 2025 or, dare we say it, beyond that to sort out this troublesome issue. I thought that Nazarbayev looked spritely in the interview. For a man of 76, he is clearly in good nick.
>> And, what about his comments on Trump? Surely they were important too?
>> Yes and no. I wouldn’t have expected anything else. He has to welcome Trump as the next US President. All the leaders of the Former Soviet Union do. Hillary Clinton would have meant more of the same, which essentially was poor Russia-US relations souring the whole ex-Soviet space. With Trump it’s a clean slate. Nobody is sure what he is going to do.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)