OCT. 8 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — International human rights groups have been lining up to criticise the run up to Azerbaijan’s presidential election on Oct. 9. In a new report, London-based Amnesty International described the situation for media and human rights workers as a “downward spiral of oppression”.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 6 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Around 12,000 supporters turned out for a rally in Tbilisi by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, media reported, one of the biggest of the year. A presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 27. Mr Saakashvili is ineligible for the election but the rally will act as a major show of support for his candidate.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijanis vote in a presidential election today that will hand the incumbent, Ilham Aliyev, his third term in power. International observers, who have never judged an election in Azerbaijan to be free and fair, will give a closely-watched verdict of the vote.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Trouble appears to be brewing on the border between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Traditionally, Uzbekistan closes its border with its southern neighbour for 72 hours around its Independence Day celebrations on Sept. 1 each year. This year, though, the border remains shut, more than one month later.
Media also reported that Uzbek officials had cancelled a deal made in June with Turkmenistan that allowed citizens from both countries to visit the other for three days without a visa.
It’s unclear what exactly has happened or when, although officials from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did meet in Bukhara at the end of last month to discuss border issues.
Whatever the official reasons for the border problems, the implications are fairly serious. Business and families are cross border affairs and detouring to the nearest consulates for visas and various permissions to travel is a time consuming tedious business.
One agency that will benefit from the confusion is the border guards’ service. The guards on the borders are notoriously corrupt and, although officially closed, people will still be crossing back and forth. The size of the bribe they need to pay will have increased.
Uzbekistan currently imposes visa requirements on citizens of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan but not Russia or Kazakhstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Where Russia goes, Kazakhstan often follows. This mantra is certainly true of economic and international affairs and now it appears to extend to social law-making.
Kazakh parliamentarians have been making speeches and canvassing support to bring in a law similar to the one passed by Russia earlier this year that banned so-called homosexual propaganda from being taught at schools.
The Russian law triggered an international outcry and calls to boycott Russia’s Winter Olympics in Sochi next year.
But a group of reactionary parliamentarians in Kazakhstan have seized on the Russian experience as their chance to push through a similar law.
Bakhytbek Smagul, a member of the lower house of the Kazakh parliament for President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s ruling Nur Otan party, has been leading the drive to ban so-called homosexual propaganda in Kazakhstan.
And he has built support, despite homosexuality being legalised in Kazakhstan since 1998.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijanis will vote today in their sixth presidential election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
This election, like the last five, will deliver an Aliyev to the presidential palace. Supporters of Ilham Aliyev, 51, will celebrate his third victory but there is much work to do before they can congratulate themselves on building a genuine legacy to bequeath future generations.
Despite the massive resource-driven growth over the last decade, there are major problems. Some of these problems, especially the inequality gap and the human rights and media freedom environments, appear to be worsening.
As well as pushing through major new pipeline plans and continuing to pressure foreign investors, led by BP, to increase oil and gas production from the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan also has to confront major structural problems.
A lob-sided economy is skewed towards the energy sector, inflating Azerbaijan’s currency and making it harder for the non-energy sector to grow.
The World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 noted that excessive and turgid bureaucracy also held back Azerbaijan’s competitiveness position, a mid-ranking 67.
Another area it highlighted was weak infrastructure.
Azerbaijani society is also riven through with inequality and corruption. These two issues have generated frustration which has bubbled over. Earlier this year accusations of corruption against a regional official and his family triggered the worst violence in Azerbaijan for a decade.
Azerbaijan’s fledgling opposition and international pressure groups also accuse Mr Aliyev and his security forces of using repressive reactionary tactics against them, perhaps a reaction to the potential spread of the so-called Arab Spring of 2011.
People are getting richer in Azerbaijan but there are real problems that need to be mended in Mr Aliyev’s third term as president.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — If the outgoing Kazakh Central Bank chief Grigory Marchenko was an independent-minded career finance-man, Kairat Kelimbetov, the new one, could not be more different.
Mr Kelimbetov, 44, has instead picked a career path through the ranks of Kazakh officialdom based on efficiency and party loyalty. Now he has been thrust into the spotlight as the surprise choice of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to replace Mr Marchenko.
Some say Mr Nazarbayev sacked Mr Marchenko, others that he resigned for family reasons. Whatever the reason, Mr Kelimbetov takes over a demanding brief. Mr Nazarbayev has said that he wants to unite Kazakhstan’s pension funds. There is also intensifying downward pressure on the tenge.
Mr Kelimbetov is the son of a well-known Kazakh academic. His peers are the group of Kazakhs in their mid-40s who are now assuming some of the top jobs. These include Timur Kulibayev, the president’s son-in-law.
He started his career at various government planning departments before becoming the minister of economy in 2002. That posting launched his career which began to carry the hallmarks of a favourite of Mr Nazarbayev.
Mr Kelimbetov was made a deputy head of Mr Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan political party in 2007 and for a few months in 2008 he was head of the presidential administration, a powerful position. In 2008, he took over as chairman of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna until 2012 when he became a deputy prime minister.
At each stage of his career, Mr Kelimbetov has parachuted into a role picked for him by Mr Nazarbayev. Heading the Central Bank is another important notch in his distinctive career resume.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 7 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The twitter account of Gulnara Karimova, eldest daughter and potential successor of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, has closed without explanation. Ms Karimova had used her twitter account to respond to criticism and also to post photos from her latest music video or yoga class.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
SEPT. 27 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — An opinion poll commissioned by AzVision.az, a pro-government website, said 88% of people would vote for President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan’s election. The poll is likely to be inflated but not substantially. Mr Aliyev is expected to win a third consecutive term in office at the Oct. 9 election.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 26 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A poll by the US group National Democratic Institute (NDI) said 39% of Georgians want Giorgi Margvelashvili, candidate of PM Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition, to be the next president. The candidate of President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United Movement Party, David Bakradze, polled 18%. A presidential election in Georgia is set for Oct. 27.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)