AUG. 10 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Tashkent jailed the former chief metallurgist of British miner Oxus Gold for 12 years for spying. Oxus said that Said Aushurov, a Tajik, was innocent and that the Uzbek government was using him as a pawn in its drive to take control of a gold mine.
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(News report from Issue No. 53, published on Aug. 17 2011)
AUG. 10 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Attention may have focused on Western Europe and the US but Central Asia’s biggest financial centre, Kazakhstan, did not escape the turmoil that has gripped world financial markets over the last week.
A ratings downgrade for the United States and worries about eurozone debt have spooked investors. There has been a flight to safety — gold and the Swiss Franc have boomed — as investors have become more wary of risk. Not good news for emerging markets, then.
Tellingly, Kazakhstan has been one of the worst hit stock markets in the world. Between Aug. 1 – 9 Bloomberg data showed the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) lost about 22% of its value.
To throw in a few numbers, KASE — which includes the state oil and gas company Kazmunaigas, miner ENRC, copper producer Kazakhmys and the country’s biggest banks — is now valued at around 63% of its mid-February value. Many of the companies listed on KASE have their main listing on the London Stock Exchange where the drop was far less dramatic.
KASE recovered 7% of its value on Aug. 10 but it hasn’t been this low since the start of March 2009 when the world was tentatively starting to emerge from the global financial slowdown.
Of course volatile oil prices play their part in pushing KASE up and down but so does general investor sentiment and they worry about emerging market risk.
KASE may be a relatively minor stock market but it is still a decent weather mast. That said, emerging markets with their potential for high growth rates will always attract investors.
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(News report from Issue No. 52, published on Aug. 10 2011)
JUNE 30 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Miner Oxus gold quit London’s AIM stock market after it failed to file financial results for 2010, required under the market’s rules. Formerly one of Uzbekistan’s most high profile foreign investors, Oxus Gold is locked in an increasingly acrimonious dispute with the Uzbek government over ownership of the Amantaytau gold field.
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(News report from Issue No. 47, published on July 6 2011)
JUNE 22 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan will award a licence to develop the important Konimansuri Kalon silver deposit by the end of the year, Reuters quoted the first deputy head of the Tajik geology agency as saying. Developing the deposit will give Tajikistan’s economy a boost.
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(News report from Issue No. 46, published on June 28 2011)
JUNE 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – It is difficult to overstate the potential importance of the Konimansuri Kalon silver deposit in Tajikistan.
The IFC, part of the World Bank, which is advising the government on how best to exploit the deposit, reckons that mining the silver could earn Tajikistan $2b. In 2010 according to the CIA World Factbook, Tajikistan’s total national income was just under $6b.
Reuters reported that the Chinese companies considering bidding for the contract have pulled out and that only Kazzinc, which is owned by Switzerland-based Glencore, and BHP Billiton remain in the race to partner the government.
Tajikistan is poor and mountainous. Inflation is rife and living standards are dropping.
Alongside battling a growing insurgency in the mountains, the government is pursuing a heavy-handed policy against practising Muslims which analysts say is likely to back fire and push people towards militant Islamists.
Corruption is rife in Tajikistan and the economy is reliant on a Soviet-era copper smelter with opaque finances and cash from remittances. Estimates say that money from people working abroad accounts for 50% of the Tajik economy. The illegal drug trade from neighbouring Afghanistan is also an important source of income.
The Konimansuri Kalon silver deposit, located around 50km from Tajikistan’s second city of Khujand in the northwest of the country, isn’t going to change the situation overnight but it does offer some hope.
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(News report from Issue No. 46, published on June 28 2011)
JUNE 13 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The China Development Bank agreed to lend Kazakh copper producer Kazakhmys $1.5b, deepening Chinese influence in Central Asia. The deal was agreed when Chinese President Hu Jintao met Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Astana, the second Kazakhstan-China state visit this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 44, published on June 14 2011)
JUNE 6 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Hoping to distance his government from the corruption of the past, Kyrgyz PM Almazbek Atambayev promised more transparency in mining tenders, Reuters reported. The fragile coalition government is looking to boost its support and brush off allegations of graft.
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(News report from Issue No. 43, published on June 6 2011)
MAY 16 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh copper producer Kazakhmys has won regulatory approval for a secondary listing in Hong Kong in June, media reported. Global companies are choosing to list in Hong Kong to improve their links to China. Kazakhmys is already listed in London.
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(News report from Issue No. 40, published on May 17 2011)
MAY 9 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A row between the Uzbek government and London- listed gold producer Oxus Gold over control of Amantaytau Goldfields, their joint venture, escalated. Oxus Gold said the Uzbek government had accused it of violating tax regulations and replied that the Uzbek government was trying to run it out of the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 39, published on May 9 2011)
APRIL 15/16 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Indian PM Manmohan Singh visited Kazakhstan and signed a number of deals. The deals included Indian state energy company ONGC Videsh buying a 25% stake in the Satpayev exploration block, one of the biggest in the Caspian Sea, and for Kazakhstan to supply India with 2,100 tonnes of uranium by 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 36, published on April 18 2011)