AUG. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The level of water in the Toktogul reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, vital for the country’s hydroelectric power production, is down by roughly a quarter because of the especially dry Central Asian summer, media reported. Uzbekistan has also reduced gas supplies leading analysts to predict energy shortages this winter.
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(News report from Issue No. 195, published on Aug. 13 2014)
AUG. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan complained to Belarus after reports circulated it had awarded Kurmanbek Bakiyev, a former Kyrgyz president living in Minsk since fleeing in a revolution in 2010, one of its highest awards. A row with Belarus may have implications for Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the Russia-led Customs Union. Belarus and Kazakhstan are already members.
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(News report from Issue No. 194, published on Aug. 6 2014)
JULY 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Profit at Toronto-based Centerra Gold, owner of Kyrgyzstan’s Kumtor gold mine, fell because of low gold prices, media reported. Kumtor is Centerra Gold’s main asset and the focus of a major row with the Kyrgyz government. Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold CEO, also said he was confident of a deal with the Kyrgyz government soon.
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(News report from Issue No. 194, published on August 6 2014)
AUG. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The United States denied it was discussing setting up a base in Uzbekistan after media reports said a deal was imminent. The US pulled out of its base outside Bishkek this year and speculation has been rising that it may be looking to set up a new Central Asia hub.
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(News report from Issue No. 194, published on Aug. 6 2014)
JULY 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Kyrgyzstan sentenced former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev to life in prison for ordering soldiers to fire at street demonstrations in 2010. The sentence is largely symbolic as Bakiyev fled Kyrgyzstan in 2010 and now lives in Minsk.
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(News report from Issue No. 193, published on July 30 2014)
JULY 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh officials travelled to Bishkek to patch up their differences before Kyrgyzstan’s expected entry into the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia in 2015.
The meeting, attended by Kazakh deputy PM Bakitzhan Sagyntayev and Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbayev ended positively with Kazakhstan pledging up to $200m in grants for Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the Union and discussing a possible electricity-for-water swap this winter.
But relations between the two sides have been unusually thorny in recent months.
Since April 14, Kazakh Customs Officials have been holding up wagons carrying petrol from the Russian energy giant Rosneft to Kyrgyzstan. Kazakh officials say they are simply complying with a government ruling banning all petrol exports from Kazakhstan. Kyrgyz officials have said that they are being obtuse.
Kazakh and Russian firms are expected to further dominate Kyrgyzstan’s domestic economy when Bishkek becomes a member of the Customs Union, which is morphing into the Eurasia Economic Union, either at the end of this year or the start of next year.
The Customs Union/Eurasian Economic Union will harmonise trade customs procedures and increase tariffs against non-members such as China. This all increases Kyrgyzstan’s reliance on Kazakhstan, making this week’s meeting even more important.
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(News report from Issue No. 193, published on July 30 2014)
JULY 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to jointly investigate a shoot-out along its shared borders earlier this month that killed one person, media reported. The announcement was an important step in deescalating tension along the border. There have been several clashes on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 193, published on July 30 2014)
JULY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A new report released by the Kyrgyz government’s main think tank, the National Institute of Strategic Studies (NISS), said that joining the Customs Union (CU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) may trigger short term economic and social discomfort.
The report is the first serious analysis of the costs and benefits of membership carried out by the government itself. It will make for troubling reading for President Almazbek Atambayev who is still trying to sell the idea of membership of the CU/EaEU to the general public.
Membership of the CU will probably trigger inflation which may lead to political unrest and possibly even a rise in Islamic radicalism, the report said. The Macroeconomic situation may subsequently improve, the report added, without making predictions as to how long that might take.
The report also stressed several benefits of the CU, including duty-free oil imports from Russia — a benefit Kyrgyzstan already enjoys — and security via the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Kyrgyzstan is already a member.
On Kyrgyzstan’s frail democracy, the report was also incisive. Parliamentarianism would be better developed outside the EaEU than inside it, while norms of governance and nationalist sentiment in Russia could hamper Kyrgyzstan’s political development, the report said.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said the notoriously stand-offish country would open up an embassy in Bishkek, the second new diplomatic outpost it has announced in the last few days.
Last month, Mr Berdymukhamedov said Turkmenistan would also open an office in Tbilisi. The common thread is that these are both countries in the former Soviet Union that Turkmenistan is now partnering with on energy projects.
In Georgia, Turkmenistan is interested in utilising the South Caucasus energy corridor to Europe. In Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan sees an increasingly important partner for sending gas to China, its key client.
Over the past few years, Turkmenistan has transformed itself into a major gas exporter. It has become rich and increasingly open. As well as funding various follies, such as an Olympic stadium and building white marble facades around its government buildings, some funds have gone into burnishing Turkmenistan’s image abroad. This includes opening new embassies.
Mr Berdymukhamedov’s predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, was a notorious recluse. Part of Mr Berdymukhamedov’s recent success has been his willingness to open up to the world, a strategy that appears to be continuing.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – An official at the Tajik ministry for industry told the Asia Plus news agency that the country was a step closer to cement self-sufficiency thanks largely to the work of Huaksin Gayur Cement, a factory completed last year that can produce 1m tonnes of cement annually.
That figure dwarfs the productive capacity of national champion Tajik Cement, which produces four or five times less. Tajikistan consumes 1.5m tonnes of cement per year and imports from Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran and Russia.
The 75% Chinese-owned enterprise in the capital Dushanbe is one of several key Chinese investments to have popped up in Tajikistan over the last year. In addition to building heating plants for Dushanbe and Tajikistan’s second city, Khujand, China has begun construction of an oil refinery in Khatlon province that will almost meet Tajikistan’s domestic fuel needs.
Factory-by-factory, Beijing is also easing the employment crisis in the world’s most remittance-dependent country. Huaksin Gayur Cement has provided over 400 local jobs. The Khatlon refinery will provide a similar number.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
China’s investment surge in impoverished Tajikistan is beginning to show results.