OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan said it has reopened its embassy in Minsk, three years after it broke off relations with Belarus. In 2012, Belarus refused to extradite former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who had been sentenced to prison in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan joined the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union in August. Belarus is also a member.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 4 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — At a parliamentary election, Kyrgyzstan held what observers said was the most democratic and transparent vote in Central Asia’s post-Soviet history.
The Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, the party of Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev, won the elections with 27% of the vote, taking 38 seats out of parliament’s total of 120. This is an increase on the 2010 election when the Social Democrats won 28 seats.
The Central Election Committee said that of the 14 established parties at the election, six won more than a 7% share of the vote and would enter parliament.
Other than some technical issues with equipment designed to read some people’s identification, Western vote monitors from Europe’s OSCE passed off the election as broadly democratic and fair.
“Voting was assessed positively in 95% of polling station observed, it was orderly and well organised in the large majority of polling stations observed, and only relatively minor technical problems with the voter identification equipment and ballot scanners were reported,” the OSCE said in a statement.
And ordinary Kyrgyz took much pride in the Western monitors’ democratic assessment of the election.
Cholpon Dzhaparkulova, a 22- year resident of Bishkek, said: “Compared to other Central Asian and post-Soviet countries, elections in Kyrgyzstan went fairly and transparently.”
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 5 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Observers from Europe’s main election watchdog the OSCE said that parliamentary elections on Oct. 4 were “unique” in post-Soviet Central Asia.
At a press conference the day after the election, Ignacio Sánchez Amor, head of the short-term OSCE observer mission said: “These lively and competitive elections were unique in this region as, until 8 o’clock last night, nobody knew what the composition of the parliament would be.”
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
BISHKEK, SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Alluding to concerns about the impact of the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union, Kyrgyzstan’s deputy PM Vladimir Dil said cheap products from Russia and Kazakhstan have been flooding the market.
Many politicians and government officials in Kyrgyzstan were sceptical in August about the benefits of joining the trade block that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. Some said that the Kremlin views the Eurasian Economic Union as a political project and that it pressured Kyrgyzstan, which has become increasingly reliant on Russia for economic and military support, into joining.
Now Mr Dil has stepped out and seemingly openly criticised the Eurasian Economic Union.
“We are seeing a very large flow of goods from Kazakhstan and Russia to our side. The changes in the exchange rates of the rouble and the tenge has turned goods in markets of our allies far cheaper than ours,” Mr Dil said. He didn’t explicitly mention the Eurasian Economic Union but the inference was clear. Kazakhstan cut its peg to a US dollar towards the end of August. The Kazakh tenge immediately lost around a quarter of its value.
A large drop in the value of the tenge and entry to the Eurasian Economic Union, it appears, has exposed Kyrgyzstan to cheap imports.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 2 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — By the standards of Kyrgyzstan’s febrile politics, the build up to its Oct. 4 parliamentary election has been calm but an often disinterested public and frustration over biometric data requirements have tarnished the vote.
Five years ago, in the aftermath of a revolution that ousted the unpopular Kurmanbek Bakiyev and the switch to a parliamentary democracy, it was a very different story. The mood was positive.
Now, ordinary Kyrgyz say that the political elite have gripped the political process making it less transparent and more self-serving.
“I am disappointed in representativeness of political parties, there are no parties for which I can vote,” said 23-year old Atabek, a student.
His friend, Temirlan, agreed.
“I wont go as there is no party in which I could be confident,” he said. As well as the usual complaints over the quality of the candidates, controversy has focused on requirements set out by the Kyrgyz Central Election Committee which insisted that people had to submit various personal data to the authorities before they could vote. Roughly a third of the population failed to register for the vote.
Still, some voters are upbeat.
Jenish, a 45-year-old taxi driver waiting for clients in a main Bishkek street said: “I will go to elections to fulfil my civic duty.”
Another Bishkek resident, 32-year old Mira, was excited about voting.
“I will vote for a party where a leader is a young and successful businessman,” she said.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with a local newspaper, an official from Pakistan’s ministry of water and power said it was $142m short of its promised $297m investment for the so called CASA- 1000 power transit project. This is a serious concern for the project which is set to cost a total of $1.2b. If completed it will boost Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan power exports to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s hard to believe that Kazakhstan has really moved to a free-floating currency market. The roller-coaster of the past 40 days has hit the Central Bank’s credibility. Investors and citizens alike are wary of the potential consequences of their tenge-denominated portfolios.
And over the last two weeks, the Central Bank has sold around $1b to keep the tenge away from the frightening 300/$1 floor it momentarily touched on Sept. 16.
The tenge has since traded at around 271/1$. In August, the Central Bank chose to move away from a dollar peg of around 188/$1 to avoid draining its reserves. Now, it seems, the tenge has found another, unofficial, peg.
In other countries, the situation was fairly stable this week. The Kyrgyz som kept its rate through the week at around 69/$1. The Georgian lari held below 2.39/$1.
In Tajikistan, the Central Bank seems to be allowing a weekly 0.5% decline for the somoni, now at around 6.5/$1.
And finally, in a recent Central Bank survey, 41% of Tajikistan’s population is in favour of letting the somoni float free.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 2% to 10% to combat rising inflation. The Kyrgyz interest rate has yo-yoed this year. It started at 10.5%, rose to 11%, was cut to 9.5% and then to 8% before being increased again.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Looking to court China, Kyrgyzstan’s deputy PM Valery Dil said China should buy one of the country’s commercial banks. China is a vital investor for Central Asian states.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The three countries in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region with currencies floating freely (or partially so) have all increased their key interest rate.
Kazakhstan was the last to do so, bringing its key interest rate to 16% from the previous level of 12%. The 12% mark had only been set at the start of September, highlighting just how seriously the Kazakh Central Bank had underestimated the threat from inflation in its initial calculations. The Kyrgyz Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 10%, up by 2 percentage points. Last week, Georgia increased rates to 7% from 6%.
The bottom line is that all three countries fear inflation. Kyrgyzstan has tried to hold off, while the Central Bank intervened lightly in the currency market to defend the som, but both foreign trade and remittances from abroad have declined, putting the Kyrgyz economy in an uncomfortable position.
Although probably necessary, these measures might not be enough to avoid climbing inflation in the coming months.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)