Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Stock market: Roxi Petroleum, KAZ Minerals

NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Stock markets saw commodities-focused companies lose terrain this week, despite a brief surge in oil prices above $50/barrel on Tuesday.

Kazakhstan-focused oil company Roxi Petroleum lost 16% in one week closing at 7.88p, perhaps driven down by technical issues slowing down its drilling operations at the BNG contract area in the western part of the country.

After peaking at 122.4p on Tuesday, mining company KAZ Minerals shares were down 8.5% to 105.7p on Friday. KAZ Minerals used to be called Kazakhmys.

In Toronto, Centerra Gold shares lost 3.5% to 7.15 Canadian dollars, continuing a 3-week slump following debates on the formation of a new government in Kyrgyzstan. The Kumtor gold mine in Kyrgyzstan is Centerra’s main asset and the company is a major taxpayer in the country. Centerra has said, though, that production at Centerra would be down this year on earlier forecasts.

A new government has now been formed in Kyrgyzstan, hopefully giving Centerra a stable partner to work with.

Shares in Bank of Georgia were down 4.5% to £19.11 on Friday.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Kerry visits Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

OCT.31/NOV. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as part of a tour of Central Asia. In Bishkek, Mr Kerry wanted to persuade the government that despite quitting its airbase, the US was still interested in Kyrgyzstan. In Dushanbe, Mr Kerry told the government to ease up on its crackdown of opposition parties.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Kyrgyzstan appoints Sariyev PM

NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament reappointed Temir Sariyev as the country’s PM, one month after an election won by President Almazbek Atamabayev’s Social Democrats. Mr Sariyev will head the coalition government. He has been PM since May 2015.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Currencies: Kazakhstan’s tenge, Kyrgyzstan’s som

NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The tenge finally broke through the 300/$1 level this week. People in Kazakhstan watched their currency lose ground against the US dollar on Thursday and Friday, while the Central Bank, under a new leadership, refrained from any intervention. The official exchange rate reached the record-breaking level of 310/$1 late on Friday, an 11% fall in one week.

The Kyrgyz som lost 1% of its value in one week, hitting 70/$1 on Friday.

Other currencies in the region remained stable throughout the week.

In a rare statement, the Uzbek Central Bank said it would let the sum devalue faster in 2015, compared to 2014. The official exchange rate, currently at 2,692/$1, showed a 10% fall in the first 10 months of the year. But this is about half the unofficial rate. On the black market, $1 can be purchased for as much as 5,900sum, according to the dollaruz.com website.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Business comment: Debt to GDP in Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan has the highest debt-to- GDP ratio of any country in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, spurring a heated debate this week in the Kyrgyz parliament.

MPs questioned Temir Sariyev, seeking endorsement to continue his job as PM, on the sustainability of Kyrgyzstan’s debt which reached $3.4b in November.

Oil and gas importers, like Kyrgyzstan, typically show higher level of debt compared to energy- rich countries. Kyrgyzstan has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 53% debt ratio.

And this is set to continue in the increasingly tight economic climate which has dragged down essential remittances from Russia to Kyrgyzstan. The IMF said Kyrgyzstan’s debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 60% in 2015 and 62% in 2016.

Kyrgyz deputies said they were worried the country might default under these circumstances.

Mr Sariyev dismissed the rumours of default indicating that other countries have far worse debt levels and do not default. According to Mr Sariyev debt is important for the Kyrgyz economy, financing important infrastructure projects.

Still, Kyrgyzstan shows the worst fiscal balance and debt ratios in the region. Armenia, also an energy importer, has a 41% debt ratio, and Georgia 38%, according to the IMF. Tajikistan posted a debt-GDP level of just 28% in 2014, but it will grow to almost 33% in 2015, a direct consequence of the regional economic downturn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Smuggled petroleum flows into Kyrgyzstan

OCT. 28 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The amount of smuggled petroleum products flowing into Kyrgyzstan from Kazakhstan has increased enormously since the country joined the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union in August, Melis Turgunbayev, director of state-owned energy company Kyrgyzneftegaz, said. He said the flood of smuggled goods had halved the trade in legally imported petroleum products.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Kyrgyz som

OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In this current regional economic crisis, when currencies are stable it has to be positive.

The US Federal Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged, giving some more breathing room to currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

This was one of the first stable weeks for currencies in the region after heavy turbulence shook, ravished even, the markets.

The three free-floating currencies followed a similar pattern this week, weakening only marginally.

The Kazakh tenge lost just 0.5% of its value against the US dollar, ending at 279.2/$1 on Friday. The Kyrgyz som followed suit losing 0.7% of its value at 69.4/$1. The Georgian lari was stable at 2.39/$1.

In Tajikistan, the Central Bank said the somoni lost 30% of its value in the year to Sept. 2015. On Friday, it was stable at 6.62/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Markets: Remittances from Russia to South Caucasus and Central Asia fall

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Central Asia and the South Caucasus keep falling, a major problem for countries which are heavily reliant on cash sent back by workers in Russia. Think Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular.

Fresh data from the Russian Central Bank shows a fall of 12% in Q3 2015 compared to the same period last year for all countries in our region, except Georgia, which lies outside the Russian data.

For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, remittances from migrant workers are vital, accounting for around half of their GDP. Uzbekistan and Armenia are also heavily reliant on money transfers from Russia.

Remittances to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan showed a first sign of recovery in Q3, although their overall balance for 2015 remains negative, compared to 2014. According to the Kyrgyz Central Bank, the value of remittances this year has dropped by around $400m to $1b.

Similarly, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have lost as much as 35% of their remittances in the first nine months of 2015.

From rock bottom, it can only get better. Figures from the next two quarters will likely show a growth in the value of remittances, because the benchmark they will be measured against is the nadir of the crisis of last winter.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan attempt to resolve border dispute

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Senior officials from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed to meet on Nov. 5 in Bishkek to try and resolve the long running issue of border demarcation. Border disputes have strained relations between the two countries since independence.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Stock market: Centerra Gold, KAZ Minerals

OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The US Federal Reserve Bank’s hinted that interest rates could be increased in December, hitting stock markets worldwide. South Caucasus- and Central Asia-related shares were no exception.

Miners were hit badly. Kyrgyzstan- focused Centerra Gold saw its shares lose over 9% in Toronto this week, closing at 7.36 Canadian dollars on Friday.

KAZ Minerals shares were also down 9%, closing at 116p on Friday.

After announcing it would pay a dividend to its shareholders on Oct. 30, Central Asia Metals reversed a slow start and closed on Friday, with a marginal positive growth, at 163p/share in London.

Oil and gas producers also suffered, despite oil prices gaining 2% this week with Brent crude closing at $49.5/barrel. Kazakhstan-focused Tethys Petroleum and Nostrum Oil & Gas both lost around 10% this week.

After reaching an 8-month high at £21.35/share last Friday, London-listed Bank of Georgia fell by 6.5% to £20.00. Last week its shares rallied after a healthcare group it holds a large stake in announced an IPO price range that valued the company at around $500m.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)