APRIL 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Central Banks in Central Asia are boasting about de-dollarisation these days, painting a rosy picture of their success in combating their economies’ dependence on the greenback.
A closer look at the stats, however, reveals that a combination of heavy interventions in the currency markets and interest rate tweaking were the main drivers of healthier Kazakh tenge and Kyrgyz som.
But now Central Banks have to grapple with inflation, which continues to grow, and demand for credit, which continues to shrink.
Central Banks propped up local currencies, against a US dollar that has now slowed its rise against Emerging Markets currencies and commodities.
Restrictions on exchange points, bans on pricing goods in dollars and public calls for confidence have all contributed to curbing the use of dollars.
But Central Banks might have run out of options now and they need to steer away from “crisis mode” if they want to really restore confidence in their still ailing currencies.
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(Editorial from Issue No. 275, published on April 8 2016)