JAN. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked the head of the government’s budgetary committee Aslan Musin. Mr Musin used to be head of the presidential administration, one of the most powerful jobs in the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Aslan Musin as head of the government’s budget committee, completing the fall from grace of the man once dubbed the Grey Cardinal of Kazakhstan.
A few days later Mr Nazarbayev wielded his axe again, this time taking out Marat Tazhin, Secretary of State, and Ghalym Orazbaqov, the Kazakh ambassador in Moscow.
These were serious power plays by Mr Nazarbayev. He may have been looking to bolster his supporters as he decides how to deal with the thorny succession issue.
The risk for Mr Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan and investors, is that he may also have created powerful enemies.
Mr Musin’s decline has been fast. In 2012 he was the head of Mr Nazarbayev’s presidential staff and one of the most influential people in the country. Analysts discussed him as a potential presidential successor, building his power-base in the west of the country.
In September 2012, that changed when Mr Nazarbayev replaced Mr Musin with Karim Massimov, the PM. Mr Musin, who had been the head of the presidential administration for four years, was sent to head the government’s budgetary committee, a relative backwater.
Now Mr Musin has dropped out of government entirely. He was replaced by Dzhanburchin Kozy-Korpesh, who worked under Nurtai Abykayev, head of the National Security Council and an adversary of Mr Musin.
The sacking of Mr Tazhin also demonstrates the power of Mr Massimov. Mr Nazarbayev delegated the responsibilities of the Secretary of State temporarily to Mr Massimov.
Neither Mr Tazhin nor Mr Orazbaqov had strong links with Mr Musin but what comes next, and who replaces them permanently, is important.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — In its annual report on human rights across the world, New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said Kazakhstan’s record worsened in 2013. It said the authorities overused rules governing freedom of speech and the freedom to gather in order to crush dissent. Torture, HRW said, also remains prevalent in prisons.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — As part of its stated strategy to boost energy production, Kazakhstan intends to auction the right to explore eight or nine oil and gas fields this year, media reported quoting energy minister Uzakbay Karabalin. In 2013, Kazakhstan auctioned off three exploration blocks after a moratorium lasting a few years.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brushing aside growing speculation over the Kazakh economy, Kairat Kelimbetov, head of Kazakhstan’s Central Bank, said there were no plans to devalue the Kazakh tenge. Media reports quoted Mr Kelimbetov after analysts openly questioned whether the tenge was too expensive.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Wearing a pin-striped suit, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev delivered his annual state-of-the-nation speech in Astana to the massed ranks of favoured party officials and members of the political elite.
His speech concentrated on the economic tasks ahead for Kazakhstan including the goal of joining the world’s top 30 economies by 2050.
In the more short term, Mr Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan planned to build its first nuclear power station within four years and to bolster the hi-tech sector.
He also set a growth target of between 6% and 7% this year and inflation of between 3% and 4%.
None of this is particularly new, Mr Nazarbayev has never been short of ambition and high rhetoric. He also knows full well that it won’t be him dealing with the headache of trying to hit ambitious targets set for 2050.
Interestingly, standing alongside him as he met delegates after his speech was his eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva. Some analysts have talked of her as a potential presidential successor.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — In 2013 the port of Aktau, on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast, handled 8% less trade compared to 2012.
This is significant because Aktau is one of the biggest trading posts into and out of Kazakhstan. Unsurprisingly oil and oil-based products form 60% of Aktau Port’s trade volumes. Last year oil shipments through Aktau dropped by 20%, a significant drop and one that needs to be analysed.
The drop is probably down to a shift in the direction that oil has been travelling. Previously, Kazakhstan had sent most of its oil West across the Caspian Sea to Europe via Azerbaijan or north through Russia’s pipeline network. This has changed significantly over the past few years and Kazakh oil is now flowing east to China.
The drop in trade at Aktau is important as it is probably a byproduct of increased Chinese demand for Kazakh energy.
Of course, as Kazakhstan’s economy grows, so should all trade volumes at Aktau — especially, and importantly, non-oil trade volumes.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The consortium of companies developing the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea said it was working on restarting production but declined to give a date. A gas leak shut down production at Kashagan, Kazakhstan’s most high-profile energy project, in October around a month after the project officially opened.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Provence, southern France, ruled that Mukhtar Ablyazov, the former chairman of Kazakhstan’s BTA Bank, can be extradited to Russia or Ukraine to face various money laundering charges.
This is a clear victory for the Kazakh authorities over the human rights lobby and they will be quietly celebrating in Astana and the Akorda, President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s palace.
Ultimately the Kazakh authorities want Ablyazov extradited to Kazakhstan to face charges of funding terrorism and plotting a revolution. Shifting him from a prison in southern France to either Moscow or Kiev is, literally and figuratively, a move in the right direction for Kazakh prosecutors.
It also underlines their determination to hunt down enemies of the state.
After the collapse of BTA Bank in 2009, Ablyazov fled Kazakhstan and set himself up in London in opposition to Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
In 2012, Ablyazov lost a civil case against the Kazakh government in London. The British court ordered him to pay millions in damages and sentenced him to 22 months in prison for perjury. Ablyazov fled, again, and was eventually arrested by French police in southern France in July last year.
In Russia and Ukraine, Ablyazov faces charges of money laundering . His supporters, though, say the main threat is being bounced along to Kazakhstan. They have said that because Kazakhstan had no extradition treaty with France it has had to work with prosecutors in Russia and Ukraine to propel their man east.
A final decision on Ablyazov’s extradition destination and date will be taken later this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in France ruled that Mukhtar Ablyazov, a Kazakh opposition leader, could be extradited to either Russia or Ukraine to face money laundering charges. Mr Ablyazov’s lawyers had argued that the authorities in Russia and Ukraine will simply hand him over to Kazakhstan where they said he would face an unfair trial.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)