OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Net profits at Kazakhstan’s Eurasia Bank fell to 2.6b tenge ($9.1b) in the first nine months of the year, a fall of 67% from the same period in 2014. The bank, owned by businessmen Alexander Mashkevich, Alijan Ibragimov and Patokh Chodiev, declined to disclose further details of the results. In 2014, net profit fell by 13% compared to 2013.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — London-traded KMG EP said sustained low oil prices had halved revenues in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2014, a heavy warning for Kazakhstan that the near-term outlook for its economy is poor.
KMG EP saw its revenues fall, in US dollar terms, by 54% to 349b tenge ($1.8b), mirroring a 48% fall in Brent oil prices. Net profit dropped to 138b tenge ($703m), a fall of 49% in US dollar terms.
And it said that oil prices would remain weak.
“There is a risk that prices for the domestic market supplies for October to December 2015 will be significantly lower than the prices set in September 2015,” KMG EP said in the report.
KMG EP is among the top three producers of oil in Kazakhstan and participates in several international oil and gas projects.
It’s one of the Kazakh government’s main cash earning companies and its financial performance acts as a barometer on Kazakhstan’s economy. If Kazmunaigas, and KMG EP, is doing well, the Kazakh economy is generally doing well too.
KMG EP also said that in tenge terms, its salary costs have increased by 22%.
“This was largely due to an indexation of salary for production personnel by 7% in January 2015, the introduction of a Unified System of Wages for production employees from April 2014 onwards, a 10% increase in wages related to the devaluation of the Tenge from April 2014 onwards, and an increase in production bonuses from 25% to 33% for supporting production personnel from September 2014 onwards,” KMG EP said.
The Kazakh Central Bank stripped the tenge of its peg to the US dollar in August, effectively allowing the currency to devalue by 25%,a second devaluation in two years which has halved the tenge’s value. Businesses have had to promise employees salary increases to compensate for the fall in the value of the tenge, pushing up inflation across the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh Senate passed a bill that will regulate financing for NGOs, a move criticised by the West as cutting back on civil liberties. The new bill is similar to a law passed in Russia and limits NGOs’ access to funding from overseas.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
OCT. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – NASA published satellite pictures of earthworks found in north Kazakhstan which have baffled scientists. The photos of the Turgai region show massive stone circles. It’s unclear exactly what they represent, how old they are or who built them.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an effort to tame inflation, Georgia raised its key interest rate by 50 base points to 7.5%
In October, annualised inflation in Georgia rallied to 5.8%, above the Central Bank’s target of 5%. Since the beginning of the year, the lari has lost over 27% of its value against the US dollar. The Central Bank intervened heavily in the currency market last month, keeping the lari steady. It sold $20m during its latest intervention on Oct. 27.
Across the Caspian Sea, the Kazakh Central Bank postponed a monthly interest rates meeting, scheduled for Nov. 6, a decision that baffled observers and made the Central Bank look amateurish.
After the sacking of former chief Kairat Kelimbetov and the appointment of Central Bank veteran Daniyar Akishev, investors and savers were eager to hear what the new chief would say at his first press conference. It looks like people will have to wait a little longer.
Instead, the Bank issued a short statement the day before the monetary policy meeting was due, saying it will no longer intervene heavily in the currency market to preserve the exchange rate, as it wants to avoid depleting its reserves. In its statement, the Bank failed to fix a date for the next monetary policy meeting.
If anyone is still wondering why everyone has lost trust in the tenge and the Central Bank, here’s why.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Kairat Kelimbetov as head of the Central Bank, two years after he was handed the job.
He promoted 39-year-old Daniyar Akishev, a former deputy head of the Central Bank and his personal economic adviser, to take over from Mr Kelimbetov.
Under Mr Kelimbetov’s watch a combination of low oil prices and a recession in Russia has battered Kazakhstan’s economy. The tenge currency has lost around half its value since Feb. 2014.
Mr Nazarbayev said that he had lost confidence in Mr Kelimbetov. “The lack of confidence in the economy and the national currency — the tenge — should not be allowed to continue,” he said in a statement on his website. “It’s important to work to fix this poor performance.”
The Kazakh Central Bank has lost credibility over the past couple of years. It has flip-flopped on monetary policy and has spent billions of US dollars propping up its currency before defaulting first in Feb. 2014 and then in August this year.
On each occasion, events have appeared to wrong-foot Mr Kelimbetov.
In 2014, he admitted at a press conference after the devaluation that he hadn’t expected it to happen. In August he said that the tenge had moved to a free float against the US dollar before presiding over several more interventions to prop up its strength.
But news that he had been sacked failed to halt the slide in the value of the tenge. By Friday, Nov. 6, it had touched an all-time low against the US dollar of 310/$1.
Inflation data for October presented Mr Nazarbayev and his advisers with more bad news. Pushed up by the devaluation in August, inflation for the year to end-October measured over 9%.
And the disorganisation surrounding the Central Bank also appeared to continue. Shortly after it released a statement saying it would no longer spend millions of US dollars propping up the tenge, the Central Bank cancelled its monthly interest rate meeting without giving a reason or setting a new date.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Daniyar Akishev’s promotion to head the Kazakh Central Bank may have taken observers by surprise but to those who know the 39-year-old, it is a job he has been groomed for.
Mr Akishev is a veteran of the Central Bank, where he worked in various positions from 1996 to 2014 before moving to the Akorda as economic adviser to President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
In 2007 Mr Akishev was rumoured to be in pole-position for taking on the role of new chief of the financial regulator.
Instead has was named deputy head of the Central Bank, a position he held for seven years, under three different bosses.
In particular, Central Bank insiders said he achieved professional maturity under Grigori Marchenko, a respected liberal economist, who often clashed with Mr Nazarbayev on economic policies.
There have been wobbles, though, in Mr Akishev’s rise to the top. In December 2008, ominously, he said the economic situation was ideal for Kazakhstan.
“The Central Bank has no problems with the exchange rate of the tenge, quite the contrary,” he told RIA Novosti in an interview.
Two months later, the Bank devalued the tenge by 19%.
Media quoted some local analysts as saying that Mr Akishev lacks independence because of his young age and his lack of political authority. But Mr Akishev is the same age as Mr Marchenko was when he was named head of the Central Bank for the first time in 1999 and is five years older than Oraz Dzhandosov was, when he became Central Bank chief in 1996.
Mr Akishev’s predecessor, Kairat Kelimbetov, who held the job for two years during which the tenge lost half its value, had a different profile and no background at the Central Bank.
Mr Akishev might have accepted possibly the toughest job in Kazakhstan, but he is also one of the few people in the country with the experience and background to take it on.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The tenge finally broke through the 300/$1 level this week. People in Kazakhstan watched their currency lose ground against the US dollar on Thursday and Friday, while the Central Bank, under a new leadership, refrained from any intervention. The official exchange rate reached the record-breaking level of 310/$1 late on Friday, an 11% fall in one week.
The Kyrgyz som lost 1% of its value in one week, hitting 70/$1 on Friday.
Other currencies in the region remained stable throughout the week.
In a rare statement, the Uzbek Central Bank said it would let the sum devalue faster in 2015, compared to 2014. The official exchange rate, currently at 2,692/$1, showed a 10% fall in the first 10 months of the year. But this is about half the unofficial rate. On the black market, $1 can be purchased for as much as 5,900sum, according to the dollaruz.com website.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Swedish telecoms company Tele2 said it will create a joint venture with Kazakhstan’s Altel to grab market share and monopolise access to 4G technology, a bold move in a region where corruption scandals have scarred rival Nordic companies.
Tele2 Kazakhstan is the third-largest operator in the country, after TeliaSonera’s Kcell and VimpelCom’s Beeline (Norwegian Telenor owns a 33% stake in VimpelCom). Altel is a subsidiary of Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazakhtelecom and the only operator with a 4G licence in the country.
Tele2’s CEO, Alison Kirkby, said that the deal will give the company a major lift and position it to attract more customers.
“This transaction will enable our customers to gain access to Altel’s 4G network and to benefit from its accelerated rollout across Kazakhstan,” Ms Kirkby said of the joint venture.
In the past two months, TeliaSonera and Telenor have said they want to sell off their assets in Central Asia and the South Caucasus after US and Dutch authorities started investigations into corruption allegations in Uzbekistan. Tele2 have, possibly, spotted an opportunity and decided to push to form a joint venture with Altel.
But it will be tough, as price battles have pushed down profit margins in the telecoms sector in the past two years. In July, former Tele2 CEO Mats Granryd said: “Kazakhstan is turning into a real bloodbath when it comes to pricing.”
When the joint venture is formalised in 2016, Tele2 will own a 49% stake and will also be the company’s operator. Pietari Kivikko, Tele2 Kazakhstan’s chairman, will serve as the top manager in the new joint venture.
The depreciation of the tenge in August, after the Central Bank cut its US dollar peg, has hit profits at telecoms companies which earn tenge but accrue costs in foreign currencies.
This year, Tele2 Kazakhstan has fared better than the competition. In Q3, it increased its revenue by 34% compared to last year and in the first nine months of 2015, it increased its customer base by 33% to over 4m users.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh parliament passed a bill which will ban mortgages being given in US dollars unless the applicant earns his or her salary in US dollars. The aim of the bill, which needs to be signed by Pres. Nursultan Nazarbayev before becoming law, is to reduce households exposure to potential bad debt and to give the ailing tenge currency a boost.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)