Tag Archives: international relations

Uzbekistan develops ties with Pakistan

DEC. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — On a trip to Pakistan, Uzbekistan’s deputy PM Ulugbek Rozukulov agreed with Pakistani business minister Khurram Dastgir Khan to set up a joint business council to improve ties between the two countries. Since former president Islam Karimov died in September, Uzbekistan has worked to improve relations with its neighbours. Pakistan has also invested more time into developing ties in the Central Asia region. It is part of both the CASA-1000 project to import electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and also part of the TAPI gas pipeline project to import gas from Turkmenistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Iranian president Rouhani tours Kazakhstan, building support for Iran’s trade routes

ALMATY, DEC. 21/22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iranian Leader Hassan Rouhani toured Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, a tour that underlines Iran’s ambitions in the region.

Western sanctions on Iran were eased this year, triggering a wave of enthusiasm of a potential return of Western business but, aside from a handful of high-profile deals, this has failed to materialise. Analysts have said that, instead, Iran and Mr Rouhani have turned their focus on Central Asia where they have built up strong business and economic ties over the past few years.

This was highlighted in a statement released by Mr Rouhani’s press team before he left Tehran. He said that Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan formed a vital part of Iran’s trade corridors.

“We will gain access to Europe and the Black Sea through Armenia, and to the northern and eastern countries through Kazakhstan,” he said.

“Also, China is seeking to connect its railway to Tajikistan, Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran through Kyrgyzstan”.

And positive bilateral relations were on show throughout Mr Rouhani’s trip. Speaking after his meeting in Astana with Mr Rouhani, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev said: “An agreement was reached to strengthen the political influence of the two countries within the framework of international organizations such as the UN, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, SCO.”

The issue of the UN is particularly important as Kazakhstan is starting two years as one of the non-permanent Security Council members.

Prior to landing in Kazakhstan, Mr Rouhani had visited Armenia. It has developed ties based on swapping its gas for Armenia’s electricity.

From Kazakhstan, Mr Rouhani travelled to Bishkek where he received public support from president Almazbek Atambayev for Iranian membership of the Russia and China led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Iran applied to join the group in 2008 but Western sanctions slowed its application. Now those sanctions have been lifted, Iranian membership has been talked of again.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Belarus opens embassy in Georgia

DEC. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Belarus officially opened its first embassy in Tbilisi, promising to improve ties between the two former Soviet states. Belarus has been increasingly active in bilateral diplomacy with the South Caucasus over the past year.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Kyrgyz President meets Indian PM Modi for talks

BISHKEK, DEC. 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A few days after hosting Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon, Indian PM Narendra Modi held talks with Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev.

At the talks, Mr Modi praised Kyrgyzstan for a being a beacon of democracy. “Our societies share a sense of warmth. We are also bound by a common belief in democratic values and traditions,” he was quoted by media as saying.

India has been pushing to improve its links with Central Asia. It has built relations through gas projects, mainly the TAPI gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan, and has also been accepted as a member of the Russia and China led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which focuses on Central Asia.

Mr Atambayev said that he wanted to strengthen economic links with India.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Kazakh President’s Syria peace talk offer

DEC. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> So Kazakhstan is hosting peace talks on the war in Syria. This sounds like a major deal.

>> It is and it isn’t. This is actually the third talks in Kazakhstan on the Syria war. The previous two rounds have proved to be more of a talking shop than a forum to find peace. They were only attended by the disparate opposition groups and so were limited. They produced a declaration that called for parliamentary elections and fighting terrorism but little else. Fairly anodyne stuff when there is a vicious civil war going on. There are also other peace talks going on, mainly the UN-backed Geneva talks, to try to sort out the war in Syria that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced many more to flee their homes.

>> When were the previous talks? Who was involved?

>> There were two rounds of talks last year, in May and in October. The only groups to attend were the disparate rebels. The extremist group IS was not invited. The talks generated a lot of headlines for Kazakhstan but no tangible impact to the war in Syria. These next talks also feature Russia, Turkey and Iran and could be altogether more serious if they do go ahead. These are the three powers who are exerting the main influence over Syria at the moment. The US and other Western powers have been left out in the cold. These talks though are more aimed at influencing the main talks going on in Geneva, rather than coming up with a stand-alone solution.

>> Right. So negotiations with the US are happening elsewhere?

>> Yes. They are not officially going to be at the peace talks in January in Astana.

>> So, what is Kazakhstan’s role?

>> It hosts the talks and will also mediate, if needed. It’s a great headline generator for Kazakhstan. President Nursultan Nazarbayev craves more attention. He wants to be taken more seriously and has tried to position Kazakhstan as a neutral venue to solve the world’s problems. He organised a summit of the OSCE member states, something that hadn’t been done since 1999, in Astana in 2010. He has also hosted a meeting of the Iran talks. This involves the US, Russia, Britain, France and China. Next year, Kazakhstan starts a two year posting as a non permanent member of the UN Security Council. And, perhaps most brazenly, Nazarbayev has also created his own peace prize.

>> What do you mean? Nazarbayev has a peace prize?

>> Yes, that’s right. We reported on it when it was announced in October. It comes with a $1m cheque. The first prize went to King Abdullah of Jordan for taking in 1.5m Syrians refugees and for making the Middle East a nuclear free zone. Nazarbayev plans to hand it out every year so it’ll be interesting to see who he gives the prize to in 2017. A Syria connection would be a good bet.

>> Back to these Syria talks. What will come out of them?

>> It’s all very fluid at the moment. Russia and Turkey appear to have given their consent to Kazakhsta-based peace talks but nothing has been heard from the Assad regime and Iran or the rebels. It’s highly unlikely that the rebels and the Assad regime will convene in one place so, even if they do go ahead, you’re likely to get an unbalanced view of things. The government forces may turn up this time but not the rebels.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Israeli PM visits Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan for first time

DEC. 13/14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) –Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Baku and Astana in a high- profile trip aimed at shoring up bilateral support in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region.

This was the first trip to the region by a serving Israeli PM.

Mr Netanyahu’s visit to Baku was particularly important. Azerbaijan borders Iran, Israel’s arch foe, and the two countries have built up an alliance. Azerbaijan buys Israeli weapons and has previously given its air force permission to use its airbases if conflict did break out with Iran. In return, Israel buys Azerbaijani oil.

In comments which gushed with positivity, Mr Netanyahu was quoted by the Times of Israel as saying: “The world sees so much intolerance and darkness, this (Azerbaijan-Israel cooperation) is an example of how the Muslim-Jewish relationship can and should be everywhere.”

Mr Aliyev was equally enthusiastic about bilateral relations, calling Israel an important partner and describing how his government had spent nearly $5b on buying Israeli-made weapons. The visit triggered a series of anti- Azerbaijan demonstrations in Iran. The Iranian government also officially complained and accused the Azerbaijani government of anti-Islamic tendencies.

From Baku, Mr Netanyahu flew to Astana for a meeting with Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He openly said that he wanted to enlist Kazakhstan’s help in supporting Israel for a non-permanent seat on the UN’s Security Council.

“We helped you get accepted as a member of the Security Council and now we are asking you to help us be a member of the council, as well,” he was quoted by media as saying to Mr Nazarbayev.

Kazakhstan starts a two-year position on the UN Security Council in January. It is one of 10 non-permanent members. The five permanent members are the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)

Tajik President visits Sri Lanka and India

DEC. 12/13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon travelled to India and Sri Lanka to drum up political and economic support. India has redeveloped the Ayni airbase near Dushanbe and there has been on-off talk of the Indian air force taking over running of the base.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)f

Tajik President flies to India for 5-day visit

DEC. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> Why is Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon in India? Is this just another meet and greet trip or something more significant?

>> It’s a five day trip starting on Dec. 14, so the length gives away some of the importance. He’s timed it nicely if he wanted to watch the final cricket test match between India and England down in Chennai, but I don’t think that’s why he’s there. Instead Rakhmon and Indian PM Narendra Modi will hold talks aimed at boosting bilateral relations. For India, Tajikistan has been groomed to be something of a springboard into Central Asia. For Tajikistan, India is a potential major investor.

>> I can understand why Tajikistan wants India as an investor, it must need a counterbalance to China’s growing influence and also to Russia, but why does India need to be in Central Asia?

>> India has been late getting in on the act in Central Asia. Whereas China, its great Asian rival, has developed now fairly substantial political and business ties, India has appeared flat-footed. Central Asia is an energy and mineral rich region virtually on its door- step but India simply hasn’t been able to develop any major footholds. Take the energy sector. India needs more energy supplies, so this is important to Delhi. When ConocoPhillips wanted to sell its 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil project in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea in 2012, it negotiated a deal with India’s state-owned ONGC. This was to be ONGC’s chance to buy into one of the most highly prized pieces of energy real estate in the world. It didn’t work out, though, as Kazakhstan exercised an option that it had on the field and pushed the stake towards China. China’s CNPC ended up buying it for $5b in 2013. India was left looking impotent.

>> That’s certainly a major snub, especially if India has already agreed the deal. What has India done since then to get back into the Central Asian region?

>> It’s been busy. Modi toured all five Central Asian states in 2015. It was a whirlwind tour to each of the region’s capitals and was generally considered a diplomatic success. And India has develop some major projects since losing out on the Kashagan stake. The biggest of these is the TAPI gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan, across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. It’s an ambitious multi-billion-dollar project that will change the dynamic of the region. Suddenly a major infrastructure project is flowing north-south rather than west-east.

>> So where does Tajikistan fit into all this?

>> India’s interest in Tajikistan is more strategic than obviously economic. In 2003, India upgraded the Ayni airbase outside Dushanbe. The theory was, back then, than it was going to station its air force at the airbase but this never came about. When Modi was in Tajikistan last year he visited the base but no deals were agreed, at least publicly. Earlier this year, the members of the influential China and Russia led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation voted in India and Pakistan as members. Tajikistan has been an important ally for India in helping it secure this.

>> Right. What else is likely to come out of Rakhmon’s visit to India this week?

>> It’s difficult to say for sure. This is Rakhmon’s sixth trip to India but his first since 2012. Indian media have speculated that there will be an upgrade of Indian-Tajik relations and that there could be some movement over the Ayni airbase but a pre-visit statement from the Indian ministry for external affairs was tight-lipped.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)

Kyrgyzstan to relax registration rules

DEC. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan is due to relax a rule introduced last month that had required foreign tourists to register at a local OVIR, an interior ministry unit, if they planned to stay in the country for more than five days, the Eurasianet website reported. It said that the Kyrgyz government would publish on Dec. 19 a list of 90 countries whose citizens needed to register within 30 days of arriving in the country. Tourist companies had complained that the rules introduced in November would be unworkable.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)

EU extends its mission in Georgia

DEC. 12 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Council extended by two years the length of its mission monitoring the boundaries separating Georgian forces and Russia-backed separatist forces in the Georgian break away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Officially called the European Union Monitoring Mission, it is now mandated to patrol between the two sides until the end of 2018. It was set up after a war in 2008 between Russia and Georgia. The monitoring mission costs the EU around 18m euro ($19m) per year.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)