Tag Archives: interest rates

Armenia cuts interest rates to counter low prices

NOV. 10 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 9.75%, its lowest level since January, because of slowing inflation.

The interest rate move highlights the delicate balance that Central Banks across Central Asia and the South Caucasus are having to strike between defending their currencies and stimulating growth to navigate through a deepening economic crisis.

The Central Bank said a drop in commodities prices and slowing global demand had dented price growth.

It said that inflation last month measured 0.4%, compared to 1% in October 2014. Overall annualised inflation measured 1.9% for the 12 months to the end of October.

“The board estimates that this trend will continue in the coming months and will have a deflationary impact on domestic prices,” the Central Bank said of weakening global commodities prices.

Armenia’ currency, the dram, has dropped by 15% this year against the US dollar. Its interest rates had risen to 10.5% in February but prices in Armenia have slowed, dragging down overall inflation.

The biggest problem for Armenia, like most of its neighbours in the South Caucasus is the recession in Russia.

This has hit vital remittance flows and also savaged is key export market. The Armenian dram is now overvalued against the Russian rouble and demand inside Russia has also dropped, hitting overall export potential.

This month, as the Bulletin reports in this week’s Business News, the country’s biggest fish farm business declared itself bankrupt. Its biggest market had been Russia and this market had disappeared.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Georgia’s Central Bank raises interest rates

NOV. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate to 7.5%, its highest level since Sept. 2011, to try and dampen rising inflation.

In January, Georgian interest rates were 4%, demonstrating just how aggressively its Central Bank has pushed up the cost of borrowing.

In a statement, the Georgian Central Bank said that Consumer Price Inflation now measured 5.8%, pushed up by a rise in the cost of imported goods and a jump in electricity prices.

“According to the current forecast, in the beginning of 2016 the inflation will remain above its target value, will start decreasing afterwards and will return to its target value of 5% in the second half of 2016,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

This year, similarly to other cur- rencies in the region, the Georgian lari has lost around 28% of its value.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Markets: Monetary policies in Georgia and Kazakhstan

NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an effort to tame inflation, Georgia raised its key interest rate by 50 base points to 7.5%

In October, annualised inflation in Georgia rallied to 5.8%, above the Central Bank’s target of 5%. Since the beginning of the year, the lari has lost over 27% of its value against the US dollar. The Central Bank intervened heavily in the currency market last month, keeping the lari steady. It sold $20m during its latest intervention on Oct. 27.

Across the Caspian Sea, the Kazakh Central Bank postponed a monthly interest rates meeting, scheduled for Nov. 6, a decision that baffled observers and made the Central Bank look amateurish.

After the sacking of former chief Kairat Kelimbetov and the appointment of Central Bank veteran Daniyar Akishev, investors and savers were eager to hear what the new chief would say at his first press conference. It looks like people will have to wait a little longer.

Instead, the Bank issued a short statement the day before the monetary policy meeting was due, saying it will no longer intervene heavily in the currency market to preserve the exchange rate, as it wants to avoid depleting its reserves. In its statement, the Bank failed to fix a date for the next monetary policy meeting.

If anyone is still wondering why everyone has lost trust in the tenge and the Central Bank, here’s why.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)

Kyrgyzstan keeps interest rates stable

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kyrgyz Central Bank said after its monthly monetary policy meeting that it was keeping interest rates stable at 10% after pressure on the som currency eased in October. Last month, it raised rates by 2% to halt a slide in the value of the som. It lost 16% of its value in June-Sept.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Armenia keeps interest rates high

OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia will keep its interest rate at 10.25% or higher in the medium term to beat rising inflation and maintain stability, media quoted Nerses Yeritsyan, deputy chairman of Armenia’s Central Bank, as saying. Regional pressures have dented economic growth across the S.Caucasus.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Kazakh Central Bank raises interest rates

ALMATY, OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank raised its new key interest rate to 16% from 12% in an attempt to contain rising inflation.

The increase in the overnight repo rate, made the key interest rate in September, highlights how heavily the Central Bank underestimated the rate that inflation would rise after a devaluation of its tenge currency in August. The tenge is now trading at 272/$1 compared to 188/$1 before it was cut from its US dollar peg on Aug, 20.

“Considering the economic data and prospects for growth the National Bank decided to raise its key interest rate to 16% to keep inflation in the medium-term target range of 6-8%,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

But bolstering the strength of the tenge may have been the Kazakh Central Bank’s main objective for the interest rate rise. Despite promising not to intervene in the currency markets after ditching the US dollar peg, the Kazakh Central Bank has spent $1b propping up its currency and keeping it away from the 300/$1 floor that it has threatened to fall through.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Markets: Interest rates up in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia

OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The three countries in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region with currencies floating freely (or partially so) have all increased their key interest rate.

Kazakhstan was the last to do so, bringing its key interest rate to 16% from the previous level of 12%. The 12% mark had only been set at the start of September, highlighting just how seriously the Kazakh Central Bank had underestimated the threat from inflation in its initial calculations. The Kyrgyz Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 10%, up by 2 percentage points. Last week, Georgia increased rates to 7% from 6%.

The bottom line is that all three countries fear inflation. Kyrgyzstan has tried to hold off, while the Central Bank intervened lightly in the currency market to defend the som, but both foreign trade and remittances from abroad have declined, putting the Kyrgyz economy in an uncomfortable position.

Although probably necessary, these measures might not be enough to avoid climbing inflation in the coming months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Kyrgyzstan increases interest rate

SEPT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 2% to 10% to combat rising inflation. The Kyrgyz interest rate has yo-yoed this year. It started at 10.5%, rose to 11%, was cut to 9.5% and then to 8% before being increased again.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Georgia raises interest rates to dampen inflation

SEPT. 23 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the fifth time this year to dampen accelerating inflation.

At 7%, Georgia’s interest rate is at its highest level since December 2011. At the start of this year, Georgia’s key interest rate measured 4%.

“The monetary policy decision is based on the macroeconomic forecast, which indicates a sharp increase in the inflation expectations given the Lari depreciation against the US dollar, which raises the future risks as a result of a one-time deviation from the inflation target,” The Georgian Central Bank said in a statement.

Georgia’s lari currency has lost 37% of its value over the past year, much like other currencies in the region, and the Central Bank said that this had been a key driver for inflation which now measured around 5.4%, moving towards the top of its 5-6% target range.

It also said that the economic situation in the region was “dire” and that demand would stay weak.

“Domestic demand is also weak, as a result of both the decline in remittances and the increase in the service burden of foreign currency denominated loans,” the Bank said.

On the streets of Tbilisi, though, the economic pain was evident.

“I get my salary in lari, but I pay my mortgage in dollar. Instead of 800 we now have to pay 1200 Lari. How are we supposed to buy food?” said university administrator Anita, 37.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)

Kazakh Central Bank picks new interest rate

SEPT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s Central Bank picked the overnight repo rate as its benchmark interest rate and main tool for manipulating monetary policy, setting it at 12%.

The decision came two weeks after the Central Bank allowed the tenge to free float, abandoning the peg to the US dollar. The free-float pushed the value of the tenge down by 23%, the second devaluation in less than two years.

“This rate is aimed at directing nominal rates in the money market and will become a key instrument of the credit and monetary policy, in the new inflation-targeting regime,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

The tenge traded at around 240 to $1 immediately after the new interest rate was announced, having strengthened from 252 to $1 after the US dollar peg was ditched in August. By comparison, in February 2014, before the first devaluation, the tenge traded at 155 to $1.

Analysts welcomed the relatively high benchmark interest rate, saying that the tenge needed this level of support.

Sabit Khakimzhanov, head of research at Halyk Finance, said that the Central Bank may even need to increase this key interest rate by one percentage point to 13%.

“The interest rate in the money market is the only instrument left at the disposal of the NBK (National Bank of Kazakhstan) to manage inflation and the exchange rate,” he said.

“Only by keeping the rates credibly high, that is, at a level sufficiently high to enforce the necessary discipline and for a sufficiently long time. The interest rate corridor 12-14% meets these requirements.”

Other analysts said the high interest rate may encourage Kazakhs to keep their money in the bank.

“The high rate levels are clearly seen as securing the banking system from deposit outflows and anchoring inflation expectations,” Dmitry Polevoy, a Moscow-based economist at ING Groep NV, told Bloomberg News.

Previously the key interest rate had been the ineffective refinancing rate set at 5.5%.

Earlier this year the Kazakh government said that targeting inflation was going to be the main driver of its future economic policies.

The problem is that with the tenge devaluing and with oil prices remaining stubbornly low, the Kazakh government has already said that inflation is likely to climb above its 6-8% corridor target.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)