SEPT. 23 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy is reliant on oil and gas. It has rebounded this year after a heavy slump in the world economy and oil prices combined in 2009 to knock growth.
In August, the ratings agency Moody’s upgraded the Azeri banking sector to stable from negative, reflecting Azerbaijan’s improving economy. Moody’s said the Azeri economy remained vulnerable to external shocks but “the banks are also benefiting from relatively stable macroeconomic conditions”.
In an interview with Bloomberg, the head of Azerbaijan’s Central Bank, Elman Rustamov, echoed this sentiment. He said Azerbaijan’s economy would grow by 4-5% this year compared to a 14% fall in 2009 but that he wanted to keep Azerbaijan’s currency, the manat, pegged at 0.803 to the US dollar for the rest of the year.
Mr Rustamov said the manat peg was important to stop the currency strengthening too quickly and damaging the non-oil sector’s recovery.
The manat has gained 12.5% against the dollar since redenomination in January 2006.
Oil makes up 93% of Azerbaijan’s exports and the average price per barrel has been 37% higher this year compared to 2009, Mr Rustamov said. Oil production will remain at around 50m tonnes this year, roughly the same as 2009. In 2008, Azeri oil production was 44.5m tonnes.
Mr Rustamov said that inflation would rise to about 10% this year.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 23 2010)