FEB. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s been a bad week for senior officials in Tajikistan. Media reported that a court in Dushanbe had sent the daughter-in-law of a senior Tajik diplomat to prison for 12-1/2 years for drug smuggling and that President Emomali Rakhmon had sacked the head of the Tajik railway company after his son was involved in a deadly crash.
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(News report from Issue No. 170, published on Feb. 5 2014)
JAN. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state oil fund, SOFAZ, increased by 5.1% in 2013 to $35.9b, media reported. SOFAZ is the rainy day fund that the Azerbaijani government uses to save cash for future generations. It invests in major infrastructure projects such as oil pipelines and railway tracks.
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(News report from Issue No. 169, published on Jan. 29 2014)
JAN. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked the head of the government’s budgetary committee Aslan Musin. Mr Musin used to be head of the presidential administration, one of the most powerful jobs in the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Aslan Musin as head of the government’s budget committee, completing the fall from grace of the man once dubbed the Grey Cardinal of Kazakhstan.
A few days later Mr Nazarbayev wielded his axe again, this time taking out Marat Tazhin, Secretary of State, and Ghalym Orazbaqov, the Kazakh ambassador in Moscow.
These were serious power plays by Mr Nazarbayev. He may have been looking to bolster his supporters as he decides how to deal with the thorny succession issue.
The risk for Mr Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan and investors, is that he may also have created powerful enemies.
Mr Musin’s decline has been fast. In 2012 he was the head of Mr Nazarbayev’s presidential staff and one of the most influential people in the country. Analysts discussed him as a potential presidential successor, building his power-base in the west of the country.
In September 2012, that changed when Mr Nazarbayev replaced Mr Musin with Karim Massimov, the PM. Mr Musin, who had been the head of the presidential administration for four years, was sent to head the government’s budgetary committee, a relative backwater.
Now Mr Musin has dropped out of government entirely. He was replaced by Dzhanburchin Kozy-Korpesh, who worked under Nurtai Abykayev, head of the National Security Council and an adversary of Mr Musin.
The sacking of Mr Tazhin also demonstrates the power of Mr Massimov. Mr Nazarbayev delegated the responsibilities of the Secretary of State temporarily to Mr Massimov.
Neither Mr Tazhin nor Mr Orazbaqov had strong links with Mr Musin but what comes next, and who replaces them permanently, is important.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — An autocrat and an eccentric, Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov started 2014 in flamboyant manner.
First, on Jan. 6, a video surfaced on the internet of Mr Berdymukhamedov behind a DJ deck playing his favourite pop songs to an adoring crowd. He relishes the attention, adding backing vocals and a clutch of confident jiving hand movements.
A few days later Mr Berdymukhamedov got back to the more serious business of governance by sacking his gas and banking chiefs.
Since becoming president in December 2006, Mr Berdymukhamedov has earned a reputation as a shrewd single-minded and flamboyant showman.
Turkmenistan has grown rich over the past few years as Mr Berdymukhamedov expands its client list for gas. This makes the sacking of Kakageldy Abdullayev, previously head of Turkmengaz, the more significant development. He had been in the job for a year and was officially sacked for not diversifying the company fast enough. Mr Abdullayev’s replacement is the little-known Charymuhammed Hommadov. Mr Berdymukhamedov also sacked the head of the Central Bank Tuvakmammet Japarov without specifying why.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s government ordered the country’s largest industries to cut production costs by 10%, media reported quoting an official document. The order is a reflection of the bloated nature of Uzbekistan’s industrial base and also of the poor health of the Uzbek economy. It may also herald potential job cuts in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — A secretly filmed sex video involving Kyrgyz Grand Mufti Rakhmatulla-Hajji Egemberdiev has rocked Kyrgyzstan’s establishment.
The video of Mr Egemberdiev having sex with a younger woman appeared on the internet on New Year’s Eve. His opponents accused him of adultery and organised street demonstrations, common in Kyrgyzstan, to force him to resign.
After a week of resistance, Mr Egemberdiev handed in his resignation. He blamed his opponents for setting up a trap and called on the government to intervene.
The whole tawdry episode means that Kyrgyzstan now has to look for its seventh religious leader in four years — a destabilising effect that even a more secure country would have problems dealing with. Mr Egemberdiev’s predecessor was sacked a year ago because of tax evasion issues.
It also throws up the issue of polygamy in Kyrgyzstan. This is technically banned but is still relatively commonplace in Kyrgyzstan and is accepted in the Sufi form of Islam.
Mr Egemberdiev’s defence was that the woman in the video was one of his additional wives.
The destabilising effect of losing another religious leader, the political in-fighting and open debate about polygamy means it’s been a messy start to the year for Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 166, published on Jan. 8 2014)
DEC. 13 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek President Islam Karimov replaced his long-serving interior minister Bakhodyr Matlyubov. Analysts said the new interior minister General-Major Adkham Akhmedbayev, was a member of the so-called Tashkent clan and that his promotion gave the security services extended reach.
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(News report from Issue No. 165, published on Dec. 18 2013)
DEC. 13 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek President Islam Karimov sacked interior minister Bakhodyr Matlyubov, 62, and replaced him with his deputy, General-Major Adkham Akhmedbayev.
Gen-Maj Akhmedbayev becomes only the third interior minister in Uzbekistan’s 22 year history as an independent country.
His promotion, though, is more interesting than merely as an historical statistic.
In Uzbekistan, the interior minister is an important position, and Mr Karimov’s decision to promote Gen-Maj Akhmedbayev has an intriguing sub-plot. Gen-Maj Akhmedbayev is a member of the so-called Tashkent Clan which is competing for influence with the Samarkand Clan.
The most powerful member of the Tashkent Clan is Rustam Inoyatov, head of the Uzbek security service.
After Gen-Maj Akhmedbayev’s promotion, commentators and analysts immediately said that they detected the hand of the increasingly powerful Mr Inoyatov behind the scenes. Gen-Maj Akhmedbayev is a former member of the Uzbek security services. His control of the interior ministry now extends the power and influence of the Uzbek security services.
It’s also important for the apparent power struggle unfolding in the background. Mr Inoyatov is considered the main protagonist of the fall from grace of Gulnara Karimova, Mr Karimov’s eldest daughter and a potential successor.
Various scenarios could continue to play out in Uzbekistan ahead of a presidential election in 2015. All, though, it seems include a stronger Tashkent clan influence over the country and a weaker president.
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(News report from Issue No. 165, published on Dec. 18 2013)
DEC. 5 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with Bloomberg News in London, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank chief Kairat Kelimbetov said one of his main objectives was to cut the proportion of nonperforming loans in Kazakh banks to 10% by January 2016. Non-performing loans currently make up about 30% of its banks’ portfolio.
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(News report from Issue No. 164, published on Dec. 11 2013)