SEPT. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), the country’s main official opposition, has indefinitely postponed a congress it had planned for Sept. 15, media reported. The IRPT linked the decision to attacks in Dushanbe last week. Earlier this month the authorities also said the IRPT was illegal.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The signs have been there for all to see for the past two or three years. Now there can be no denying it. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appears to want to set his daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, up as his successor.
Her rehabilitation into the mainstream of Kazakh politics has been carefully managed. First she won back a seat in the 2012 parliamentary elections, then in 2014 she appeared next to her father after his State-of-the-Nation speech and then she started to take over increasingly important roles, including deputy speaker of parliament.
More recently, Mr Nazarbayev has spoken about the Asian model of democracy. This was, it now appears, code for managed dynastic succession.
Kazakhstan needs stability at the moment. It is moving through difficult economic territory and it needs strong, talented, leadership.
But it also needs choice.
Ms Nazarbayeva, who has sung opera at the Bolshoi Theatre in Moscow, certainly has the charisma, authority and the most famous surname in Kazakhstan, but is she the right person to lead Kazakhstan in the post-Nursultan era?
Infamously in 2013, at a parliamentary committee meeting, she described disabled children as freaks birthed by teenagers having sex too young. She sounded out of touch with ordinary people and drew heavy criticism.
There are other candidates, but Ms Nazarbayeva does now appear to be in pole position. What is certain is that the succession issue in Kazakhstan is, once again, at the forefront of the country’s politics.
By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Last week Tajikistan experienced some of its bloodiest fighting in recent years. Although the regime has been quick to label the rebels as “terrorists” sponsored by outside forces, the conflict is in fact the product of internal factors.
Tajikistan remains a mafia state. Different factions compete over the resources it has to offer. Government posts are not merely daytime jobs; they offer elites access to power and wealth.
With such a contested political economy, conflicts boil to the surface intermittently.
After the country’s civil war ended in 1997, some opposition warlords were incorporated into the regime.
Since signing the power-sharing deal, Emomali Rakhmon’s government has reneged on its promises, imprisoning, killing and exiling many of its former foes.
Not all of them have laid down their arms without a fight. Last Friday’s armed uprising is just the last in a series of conflicts involving former opposition strongmen.
Until recently, Major-General Abdukhalim Nazarzoda was one of the last remaining opposition commanders in government.
A skilful player of the political game, he rose to the rank of deputy defence minister in 2014. At the same time, he amassed a fortune through control of a bread factory, a poultry farm and other assets.
But last week his position came under threat.
According to a statement released by his supporters on September 6, the regime plotted to remove Nazarzoda for refusing to agree with the recent ban on the government’s main opponents, the Islamic Renaissance Party.
Instead of going quietly, he decided to go out fighting. And fight he did, leaving over forty people dead.
Dushanbe seems to have the situation under control for now. Despite sustaining heavy casualties, the security services have now neutralised most of Nazarzoda’s supporters, killing the general himself on September 11.
With the move against Nazarzoda, the regime has sent a clear warning signal to other commanders of dubious loyalty.
Not all of them will step aside without a fight.
Over the next few years Tajikistan’s fractious post-conflict state will sporadically erupt into violence.
By Edward Lemon, PhD candidate at Exeter University focusing on Tajikistan
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek media reported that Usman Khaknasarov, described as a local political analyst with good access to the ruling elite, had said that Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov may be lining up his youngest daughter, Lola, to succeed him. The 77-year-old Mr Karimov has yet to announce a successor. His eldest daughter, Gulnara, has lost her power and influence.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 8 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — More than a quarter of Kyrgyz citizens eligible to vote in next month’s parliamentary election have not submitted their biometric data to the authorities ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline, the State Registration Service said.
Under new election rules, if people fail to submit their personal biometric data before the deadline their right to vote will be withdrawn, drawing criticism from human rights defenders who have said this is a breach of civil liberties. They also said government agencies were not competent enough to protect the data.
The State Registration Service said it still hadn’t receive data from 1,072,080 people of the 3,777,500 electorate. The data people need to submit includes an electronic signature, photos and fingerprints.
In central Bishkek, a 22-year-old man explained why he had not to submit his data.
“Our people love freedom. I don’t want to be controlled by the state,” he said, without giving his name,
The risk for the government is that if a quarter of the electorate chooses not to register for the Oct. 4 vote, it will fail to deliver a genuine mandate.
Rita Karasartova, head of Institute of Public Analysis, a Kyrgyz NGO, told local media she thought many people were unaware that the deadline to submit biometric data was two weeks ahead of the election itself.
“Citizens will start submitting biometrics at the eve of the elections because they will not be aware of this deadline,” she said, warning this may trigger complaints about voters’
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, owner of the Kumtor gold mine in east Kyrgyzstan, has paid 4.3 trillion som (around $65m) in taxes to the Kyrgyz government in the first 8 months of 2015, the ministry of finance said. In 2014, Centerra accounted for 7.4% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police arrested the governor of the Kostanai region in north Kazakhstan, Akhmetbek Akhmetzhanov, for corruption. Kazakh officials have arrested a handful of senior regional officials over the past year or so for corruption.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 11 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev appointed his daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, to be a deputy PM, triggering an avalanche of speculation that she was being lined up to succeed him.
The appointment caps a remarkable turnaround for Ms Nazarbayeva who in 2007 fell out with her father and was forced to relinquish her seat in parliament and her media business interests.
Analysts said that her appointment as deputy PM was significant.
“It does look like a sign of succession,” Nargis Kassenova, professor of International Relations at KIMEP University in Almaty.
“Now with no danger of Rakhat Aliyev coming back, there seems to be no serious constraint to keep her away from top executive positions.”
Ms Nazarbayeva had been married to Rakhat Aliyev who fled into exile in 2007 and set himself up in opposition to President Nazarbayev. He was later arrested and charged in Vienna with murdering two Kazakh bankers outside Almaty.
Mr Nazarbayev had wanted him extradited but this year, the day before he was to stand trial, Aliyev was found hanged in his prison cell.
The succession issue for President Nazarbayev has become one of his most pressing. The 75-year-old, who has ruled over Kazakhstan since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, has not yet named a successor, which has allowed rumours to swirl and instability to take root.
Ms Kassenova, the KIMEP professor, said that Ms Nazarbayeva’s promotion may already have been trailed when President Nazarbayev earlier this month spoke about the Asian model of democracy.
“This dynastic approach to power is probably what President Nazarbayev had in mind when he recently referred to our Asian traditions to explain a slow move to Western-style democracy,” she said.
Ms Nazarbayeva returned to parliament in the 2012 election and has since held the position of deputy speaker of parliament.
There are other potential rivals for power. These include PM Karim Massimov, defence minister Imangali Tasmagambetov and Timur Kulibayev, the former head of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund and the husband of Mr Nazarbayev’s second daughter.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Norway’s foreign minister Boerge Brende visited Georgia to meet with President Giorgi Margvelshvili and PM Irakli Garibashili. In Tbilisi Mr Brende underlined Norway’s support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. Importantly for Georgia, Norway is a NATO country.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
SEPT. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a conference in Tashkent this week, Deputy Premier Rustam Azimov said corruption and extortion were among the hurdles that private entrepreneurs face in Uzbekistan.
This is important because it is rare for government officials to admit that corruption blights Uzbekistan and its officials.
“Businesses in Uzbekistan are today experiencing a lot of problems related to the illegal interference in entrepreneurial activity. There is excessive bureaucracy, as well as bribery and extortion,” media quoted him as saying. Mr Azimov was speaking at national conference on the security forces’ role in reforming and diversifying the economy.
A Tashkent-based analyst said Mr Azimov’s comments may be a signal the government was about to launch an anti-corruption purge.
It may also be a way of deflecting problems that have hit Uzbekistan. Remittances have fallen by half and inflation is rising. Most of these problems are regional and linked to a weak Russian economy and a fall in oil prices, but the Uzbek government will want to shift responsibility.
Transparency International, the global anti-corruption watchdog, ranks Uzbekistan as one of the worst countries in the world for corruption.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)