JAN. 16/17 2016, ALMATY/Kazakhstan (The Conway Bulletin) – Countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia applauded the end of western sanctions against Iran, a move they hope will turn their southern neighbour into a strong trade and diplomatic partner.
But, as well as adding a hopefully vibrant economy on their southern fringe, the reemergence of Iran also presents a major potential downside.
Low commodity and oil prices have been a major contributor to an economic downturn that has shaken the region. Adding Iran’s large oil reserve to the market will further pressure prices which are already hovering around 12-year-lows of $28/barrel, down from $115/barrel in the summer of 2014.
Most countries in the region issued a statement applauding Iran’s return to the international fold.
The Kazakh foreign ministry said: “It is a critically important step in creating a safer world.”
It also said that Iran had signed its first post-sanctions international agreement with Kazakhstan’s Air Astana to open an Almaty-Tehran flight in 2016.
In the South Caucasus, Armenia and Georgia are trying to negotiate gas supply deals with Iran, and Azerbaijan may be able to persuade Tehran to fill part of its TANAP gas pipeline running via Turkey to Europe.
Elham Hassanzadeh, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said Iran could become an important trade and diplomatic partner for Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
“It will certainly be an easier partner to trade with [than previously],” she told The Conway Bulletin in an interview.
“The cost of doing business with Iran will be significantly lower than that of during the sanctions era while less economic and political restrictions on a given country in the region could be translated into less antagonism and conflict and more collaboration and constructive dialogue.”
She said, though, that energy would be at the forefront of relations. “A good number of Azeri and Turkmen companies are planning to invest in Iran’s oil and gas sector,” Ms Hassanzadeh said.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)