JAN. 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s GDP grew at 10.2% in 2013, one of the quickest growth rates in the world, according to the economy ministry. The biggest growth spurt came in the construction sector which grew by 17%. Most of this economic expansion, though, is fuelled by gas exports to China and beyond.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
NOV. 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The EBRD raised its GDP growth outlook for Uzbekistan this year to 7.7% from 7.5%, media reported. Inflation, though, it said, would grow at 11% in 2013, one of the quickest rates in the region. Uzbekistan is cagey about releasing economic data.
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(News report from Issue No. 160, published on Nov. 13 2013)
OCT. 17 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fitch, the rating agency, confirmed a BBB- rating for Azerbaijan after its latest economic assessment. It predicted GDP growth of 5% this year, driven by government spending, up from 2.2% in 2012. Fitch said, though, that this growth would slow slightly in 2014 and 2015.
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(News report from Issue No. 157, published on Oct. 23 2013)
OCT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The IMF has predicted strong economic growth for Kyrgyzstan because of rising output at the Kumtor gold mine, Reuters reported. Kumtor is Kyrgyzstan’s largest industrial asset. Problems with the pit at Kumtor slowed production last year. This year, the IMF said, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP would grow by nearly 8%.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
SEPT. 6 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — An increase in business outside Azerbaijan’s dominant energy-sector will boost overall GDP growth rates next year, Azerbaijani economy minister Shahin Mustafayev said. The economy will grow by 6.7% in 2014, Mr Mustafayev said, up from a predicted 5% this year and 2.2% in 2012.
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(News report from Issue No. 151, published on Sept. 11 2013)
JULY 16 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The proportion of bad loans in Azerbaijan will drop to 11% from 14% within the next 12 – 18 months, the ratings agency Moody’s said in a new report on the Azerbaijani banking sector. Moody’s regarded bad loans as those overdue by more than 90 days. It gave an upbeat assessment of Azerbaijan’s banking sector and said that real GDP would rise by 3.5% this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 10 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s economy yo-yos. Last year, it shrank by nearly 1%; this year estimates predict that it will grow by 7%.
The yo-yo effect depends on political stability, Kyrgyzstan has suffered two violent revolutions since 2005, as well as the health of its biggest industrial project, the Kumtor gold mine. Last year Kumtor, owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, had a poor year and dragged down the entire national economy (it accounts for about 12% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP).
And mitigating this yo-yo effect is one of the main reasons that international donors have pledged $1.7b in grants and loans to Kyrgyzstan over the next five years.
Earlier this year, the Kyrgyz government, led by President Almazbek Atambayev unveiled an ambitious $13b growth plan. Much of this, the government said at the time, relied on the financial might of Western donors and investors underpinning this ambition.
At a conference in Bishkek on July 10, the World Bank, the IMF and others matched this ambition, giving Kyrgyzstan the chance to stabilise and grow its economy. This should improve the investment environment for foreign companies looking for a foothold in Central Asia too.
The alternative for Kyrgyzstan is more economic, and political, instability
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
JULY 13 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — There are 1,865 investment projects worth $41b in Turkmenistan, Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said on state TV. The figure could not be independently verified but it does underline Turkmenistan’s investment potential. A major gas exporter, the IMF has estimated Turkmenistan’s 2013 GDP growth at 8%.
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
APRIL 15 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 3.1% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2012, Reuters quoted official data as showing. This rate is far quicker than the first quarter of 2012. Most of the growth occurred outside the energy sector.
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(News report from Issue No. 132, published on April 22 2013)
MARCH 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) – Although probably not wholly unexpected, the IMF’s assessment of Azerbaijan’s economy was still relatively blunt.
Instead of increasing public spending the Azeri authorities need to reduce government expenditure while improving its efficiency, as well as enhancing the business climate in general, media quoted Raja Almarzoqi, head of the IMF’s mission to Azerbaijan, as saying.
Like other energy-rich former Soviet states — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for example — Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily tilted towards cash earned from gas and oil.
Most of Azerbaijan’s energy-fuelled growth has occurred over the last decade. Now the government wants to boost other sectors of the economy and has promised various cash injections.
But the IMF said this strategy comes with risks.
According to Bloomberg news agency, Mr Almarzoqi cut straight to the point. “The 2013 budget is expansionary and creates overheating risks,” he said.
He backed up this statement with figures. Public spending and a significant increase in the non-energy economy will nearly double Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to 4.5% in 2013. Inflation, though, will also increase to 7% from 1.1% last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 127, published on March 15 2013)