APRIL 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The grey economy in Armenia generates roughly 40% of GDP, media quoted human rights activist Karen Andreasyan as saying. Mr Adreasyan said that the high proportion of GDP generated by the grey economy creates problems in tax and customs areas.
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(News report from Issue No. 178, published on April 2 2014)
MARCH 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy grew only a sluggish 1.6% in the year to end-February, media reported quoting the state’s statistics agency. Most international organisations have predicted GDP growth of around 5% for Azerbaijan this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP rose 7.1% in Q4 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, the statistics office said. The data is more evidence that Georgia’s economy is bouncing back after a sluggish 2011 and 2012. The Central Bank increased interest rates last month for the first time since 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Predictions on how Armenia will perform economically over the next year don’t make pretty reading.
First, deputy economy minister Vahram Avanesyan was blunt about the impact of a downturn in the Russian economy on Armenia.
In particular he said that the drop by 10% of Russia’s rouble currency would affect the value of remittances to Armenia and also exports from Armenia.
“The first potential security risk is decline in real value of private transfers, the second is lower revenues of Armenian exporters to Russia,” media quoted Mr Avanesyan as saying.
The economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are closely linked to the fortunes of Russia. Remittance flows are particularly strong from Russia out to these peripheries of the former Soviet Union.
Armenia, though, is probably more vulnerable than most. Russian companies are bank rolling most of the country’s commerce and Russia’s state-owned companies are large investors.
Shortly after Mr Avanesyan’s assessment the IMF released its forecasts for the Armenian economy.
It said that growth would hit 4.3% in 2014 but that inflation would rise to 5%.
In line with other currencies in the region, Armenia’s dram also weakened earlier this month with the rouble. On March 3, it dropped from 350 drams to the dollar to 400 drams.
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(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
FEB. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP grew by nearly 8% in the 12 months to the end of January, the Georgian statistics agency reported. It said a surge in domestic demand at the end of last year had carried over into the start of 2014. Georgia predicts full year GDP growth for 2014 of 5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 174, published on March 5 2014)
JAN. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The UN is the latest international agency to predict strong economic growth for Uzbekistan in 2014. In its World Economic Situation and Prospects report it said that the Uzbek economy would grow by 7.1% next year compared to 8% growth last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 169, published on Jan. 29 2014)
JAN. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s economy, according to President Islam Karimov at least, is buoyant.
In a briefing to government ministers on how Uzbekistan’s economy performed last year, Mr Karimov was fairly unequivocal.
He rattled off the numbers. GDP grew last year grew by 8%, industrial output—by 8.8% and agriculture by 6.7%. Meanwhile, he said, inflation was a lower-than-expected 6.8%.
These are all handsome numbers indeed. They’re also the official numbers. Uzbekistan’s economy probably doesn’t look in such rude health at street level where unemployment, spiralling prices and energy shortages are prevalent.
International financial organisations such as the IMF, though, have also said that Uzbekistan’s economy is growing at a rate similar to the one quoted by Mr Karimov. Mr Karimov said that the official 8% economic increase last year had been due mainly to a surge in foreign investments and also jumps in production in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
He was, though, modest enough to suggest that improvements could be made in a handful of sectors including boosting the efficiency of state-run companies and replacing aging infrastructure used on farms
The problem for Uzbekistan is that while the numbers sound good, the reality is different and ordinary people in Uzbekistan are not benefiting from the economic expansion that is so often touted as part of Mr Karimov’s legacy. NGOs in Moscow report a steady stream of Uzbeks heading to Russia for seasonal work.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said Azerbaijan’s economy would grow by between 3-4% in 2014, a drop from 5.8% in 2013. In a report, the EBRD said a pre-election government spending spree in August and September had distorted and boosted Azerbaijan’s growth rates last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s economy is booming, Uzbek President Islam Karimov told ministers. Last year, Mr Karimov said, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8%, boosted by foreign investment. But while Mr Karimov’s numbers might suggest a booming economy, it doesn’t feel that way on Uzbekistan’s streets.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 6% in 2013 up from 2.2% in 2012, media quoted President Ilham Aliyev as saying. The strong growth figure will be a boost for Mr Aliyev. One of the government’s key targets is to increase inflation. Last year, Mr Aliyev said, inflation roughly doubled to 2.4%.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)