JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The drop in the price of gas and oil will hit Turkmenistan’s economy, although it will still grow by nearly 10% in 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its updated growth forecasts. Turkmenistan’s economy is protected somewhat by contracts with China.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan may increase its gas production by 9% this year, media reported quoting the state information service. Already one of the biggest regional gas producers, Turkmenistan boosted gas exports by 11% last year, mainly to China. The drop in global energy prices will impact the Turkmen government budget.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s Gazprom has given up searching for oil in two of its four exploration blocks in Tajikistan, media reported. Interfax, a Russian news agency, said that Gazprom had been working since 2003 on the projects. It still plans to explore its two remaining blocks. Tajikistan has said that it hopes a major oil and gas discovery will boost its economic prospects.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
>>Sackings come shortly after currency devaluation>>
JAN. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s been a busy start to 2015 for Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. He ordered the devaluation by 20% of the manat on Jan. 1 and now he has sacked both the head of the state gas company Turkmengaz and the head of the Central Bank.
Mr Berdymukhamedov appears frustrated at the relative sluggish nature of recent growth in the Turkmen economy. Much of this can be attributed to the 50% fall in energy prices and the drop in the value of the Russian rouble, so important for the economies of Central Asia.
But Mr Berdymukhamedov said that Turkmengaz head Kakageldy Abdullayev was to blame.
“We could have raised production and exports of liquefied gas and other products which are in great demand on world markets,” Reuters quoted him telling a government meeting.
Mr Berdymukhamedov is fond of culling his top officials. Mr Abdullayev had only been in the job for a year. His replacement was named as Charymuhammed Hommadov.
The day before, Mr Berdymukhamedov had also sacked the head of the Central Bank, the head of the state-run Prezidentbank and also the agriculture bank Daikhanbank.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
DEC. 27 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — With gas supplies limited this winter, Kyrgyzstan has been reverting back to coal to keep its electricity and heating on, media reported. Media reported that state-owned coalminers produced 1.5m tonnes of coal in the first 11 months of last year, up by 22% from a year earlier.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Re-starting gas supplies could improve relations>>
DEC. 30 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan has restarted gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan, ending an eight-month embargo.
This is significant as Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan relations had seemingly been drifting from bad to worse over border rows, water management and energy issues. Analysts had identified the cross-border tension as potentially destabilising to the whole region.
Media quoted Tahir Alimov, deputy director in Osh for Gazprom Kyrgyzstan, as saying that the gas started
flowing once again from Uzbekistan at 3am on Dec. 30. The resumption of gas supplies will be a major boon to Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev.
Kyrgyzstan has been negotiating with other countries across Central Asia to make up for the shortfall in Uzbek deliveries but, realistically, Kyrgyz officials were always going to fall short of making up for the lack of Uzbek gas.
Uzbekistan had switched off the gas supply to Kyrgyzstan in April when the current deal expired. Uzbekistan said that Kyrgyzstan didn’t want to negotiate a new deal.
Kyrgyzstan said that Uzbekistan wanted too high a price. At the same time Russia’s Gazprom completed a deal to buy Kyrgyzstan’s gas company and it seems that it, and not the Kyrgyz government, was able to negotiate a new deal.
Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg said that Uzbekistan and a Switzerland-based Gazprom-owned company had renegotiated the deal.
Perhaps, Gazprom has acted as a peace-maker.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 26 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Chinese energy company CNPC said it wanted to develop new gas fields in Uzbekistan. It wants to invest $277m in three fields — Dengizkul, Khojadavlat and East Alat — over the next five years. The announcement helps to secure China’s place as Central Asia’s biggest gas client.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
JAN. 4 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan may have serious problems making its national budget work with oil prices dropping below $50/barrel, media reported (Jan. 4). The government’s budget estimates are calculated at oil costing $90/barrel. Oil revenues directly contribute over half the government’s revenue.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The consortium developing the Karachaganak oil and gas site (KPO) in west Kazakhstan denied that a gas leak at its plant poisoned 20 children and three teachers at a school in a nearby village.
Ambulances rushed the children and teachers to hospital after they suddenly fainted on Nov. 28.
KPO made the statement after Kazakh media widely quoted the Prosecutor-General for Kazakhstan’s western region, Serik Karamanov, saying that there had been a brief gas leak the day before the mass fainting at the Karachaganak site only a few kilometres away from the village.
The KPO statement said: “A mobile environmental monitoring station has also been despatched to Berezovka village and has reported no exceedances above the official Maximum Permissible Concentration limits.”
Whether the Kazakh authorities agree, remains to be seen.
Mr Karamanov was clear about what he thought may have been the cause of the poisoning.
“It has been established that at 14:19 on November 27 at the gas-processing complex of KPO, there occurred a discharge of condensate for a period of two minutes,” he said according to local media reports.
The incident is a reminder of the tension at local levels between the foreign-led projects in the energy sector and local communities who accuse them of not doing enough to protect their environment.
Karachaganak is important to Kazakhstan. It is considered one of the country’s most successful projects, and produces around 40% of Kazakhstan’s gas and 13% of its oil. Britain’s BG Group and Italy’s ENI own a 29.5% stake each, Chevron owns 18%, Russia’s Lukoil owns 13.5% and the Kazakh state oil and gas company, KazMunaiGas owns 10%.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh PM Karim Massimov said Kazakhstan wanted to develop shale gas sites, industry website shaleenergyinsider.com reported. The website quoted Mr Massimov talking at an energy conference. If Mr Massimov acts on his statement it would mark a change in Kazakhstan’s energy policy.
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(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)