JAN. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — At the first session of the lower house of parliament after an election, Uzbek president Islam Karimov said Uzbekistan will never join a group that tries to recreate the USSR. Mr Karimov’s comments appear to be a reference to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union which includes Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 1 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — After a year long build up, Armenia joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The EaEU also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus. Kyrgyzstan will join in May. Critics of the project have said that it is a Kremlin power grab.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Membership to become political ahead of elections>>
DEC. 23 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan signed a deal that will make it the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) in May.
At a meeting in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the union, which from Jan. 1 includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia as well as Russia, would benefit from Kyrgyzstan’s membership.
“All the participants of this integration process are already experiencing its real benefits,” media quoted Mr Putin as saying.
“We are convinced that Armenia and Kyrgyzstan’s membership in the Eurasian [Economic] Union meets the key national interests of both countries.”
Many analysts, though, and people on the streets of Bishkek questioned whether there would be any real economic benefit. Instead, they said that Kyrgyzstan had joined the Eurasian Economic Union for political rather than economic reasons.
Kyrgyzstan is, largely reliant on Russia for economic and military support, but its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union is likely to become a political issue later this year in the run up to its parliamentary election, scheduled for October.
In an interview with Russian state-linked newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta before the official signing ceremony, Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev waived aside concern.
“When making decisions, we guide solely by economic expediency,” he said.
“This step will revive our industry, strengthen security, open borders with neighbouring countries, improve the standard of living of the people. Entry into this union opens up new opportunities for economic development.”
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alongside Armenia, Kyrgyzstan will finally join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 despite few analysts deeming it ready or suited to full membership.
Bishkek will sign accession documents on Dec. 23, although it could be May before it adopts the protectionist taxes slapped on goods from outside the union, Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbayev told journalists.
Eurasian Economic Union officials have even said they will allow Chinese goods “for domestic consumption” to enter Kyrgyzstan according to pre-existing Kyrgyz tariffs for an unspecified period of time, a concession that suggests other members view Kyrgyzstan’s membership as symbolic.
Kyrgyzstan first agreed in 2010 to enter a trade bloc with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan — the current members of the Customs Union which will morph into the Eurasian Economic Union next year — so it has been a long wait.
But Kyrgyzstan has an economy a tenth the size of Belarus’, an unresolved row over ownership of the Kumtor gold mine, its single largest industrial unit, and worries about rising inflation. This makes it a potential weak link.
Arkady Gladilov, editor of local analytical website polit.kg noted that Kyrgyzstan has had three prime ministers in the time it has been committed to joining the bloc. He said the government may have been dragging its feet over Eurasian Economic Union accession.
“Russia is facing a difficult time with sanctions, and Kyrgyzstan’s own picture is far from rosy. If I were them, I would probably do the same in their position,” he told the Conway Bulletin.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh government plans to start regulating fuel against prices in neighbouring Russia, media reported. Kazakhstan imports a third of its fuel from Russia and has blamed price disparities and the downturn in the Russian economy for shortages.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbayev said the country would sign treaties on Dec. 23 with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan that effectively amount to an accession agreement to the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union at the start of 2015. Armenia has already signed an accession deal.
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(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia’s lower house of parliament passed a law that ratified deeper economic cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, part of the process towards Kyrgyz accession into the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The deal will mean a $1b windfall in cash and loans from Russia to Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank said it was prepared to spend millions of dollars propping up its currency, the dram, despite increased pressure to devalue.
Like other currencies across the South Caucasus and Central Asia region, falling oil prices and a devaluation in Russian rouble are pressuring the dram.
On Monday, Nov. 24, the dram was trading at 435 to $1, down 4% from Friday.
“The Central Bank reserves are enough to prevent any artificial fluctuations of the rate and secure financial stability,” the Central Bank said in a statement.
Perhaps but the warning signs are increasing and even the Central Bank’s statement smacks of desperation.
In the last three weeks, Reuters reported, the Armenian Central Bank has spent over $60m defending its currency.
Armenia is tied into Russia, politically, economically and emotionally. It has agreed to join the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union in January and Russian business virtually runs the economy.
With oil prices and the rouble falling further it can only be a matter of time before currencies such as the dram also tumble again.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has predicted that inflation in Kyrgyzstan will hit 10% in 2015 after it joins the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. The biggest jump in prices, the ADB said, will be a 30% rise in petrol when prices are brought into line with Kazakhstan and Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia plans to re-establish its Interior Ministry ahead of joining the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.
PM Hovik Abrahamian said that several ministries would be merged together to create an Interior Ministry, which was abandoned in 2002.
“Nineteen ministries is too many for Armenia,” the official Armenpress news agency quoted Mr Abrahamian as saying. “In the future we will turn the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Local Government into the Ministry of Internal Affairs as it is the case in many European countries.”
In the former Soviet space the Interior Ministry is one of the more powerful government institutions. It has its own army and is tasked with imposing internal security and order. In 2002, Armenia disbanded the Interior Ministry and handed these pseudo military powers to the police force. This will now revert back to the Interior Ministry.
Armenia is joining the Eurasian Economic Union in the New Year, a group that already includes Belarus and Kazakhstan alongside Russia. Kyrgyzstan is also intending to join.
All these countries have a strong Interior Ministry. It’s likely that joining the Eurasian Economic Union and re-establishing the Interior Ministry in Armenia are linked.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)