DEC. 26 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Tajik authorities flirted with blocking up to 131 websites ahead of a presidential election at the start of the year, media reported. An order to block the websites, mainly news and social media, was circulated on Dec. 20, only to be cancelled a week later. Tajikistan periodically blocks websites.
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(News report from Issue No. 118, published on Dec. 28 2012)
DEC. 14 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Gagik Tsarukyan, leader of Prosperous Armenia, the second largest party in the Armenian parliament, announced he would neither field a candidate in February’s presidential election nor publicly support any of the other candidates, media reported. His rivals said this move undermined the election.
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(News report from Issue No. 118, published on Dec. 28 2012)
OCT. 5 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and his opposition coalition, Georgian Dream, pulled off a shock victory in a parliamentary election in Georgia on Oct. 1.
They defeated the victor of the 2003 Rose Revolution — Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his political party United National Movement party (UNM).
Final results are not yet out, but estimates suggest that Georgian Dream will claim about 83 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
This was both a stunning and surprising victory. Analysts had predicted an easy win for UNM.
Now, though, Mr Ivanishvili has to show that he is not only a wily campaigner but can also govern. And this is where it will get complicated. Other than vague notions of improving ties with Russia while still moving towards the West, Mr Ivanishvili has been light on policy ideas.
A new constitution, due to be adopted next year further complicates matters. Until then, the president is still the most powerful figure in the country and even appoints the prime minister. After the new constitution comes into play, power shifts to the prime minister.
And there is also the small matter of another election, this time a presidential election, scheduled for Oct. 2013. It’s likely to be an unsettling 12 months in Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 107, published on Oct. 5 2012)
SEP. 28 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Street protests, stirred by revelations last week of abuse in Georgia’s prisons, continued to dominate Tbilisi ahead of parliamentary elections on Oct. 1. Media outlets have also reported that the video of the abuses has pushed people towards voting for the opposition party, Georgian Dream.
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(News report from Issue No. 106, published on Sep. 28 2012)
SEP. 21 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s parliamentary election on Oct. 1 was always going to be a close run affair. The United Movement Party, the party of President Mikheil Saakashvili, has found its most dogged and well-funded opponent yet in the Georgian Dream, the party of the country’s richest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Now, though, after the broadcasting of a leaked video from inside a prison showing guards raping inmates with truncheons, it’s become even more fraught.
Hundreds of people poured out onto the streets of Tbilisi to protest against the videos shortly after they were aired on Sept. 18. A junior cabinet minister resigned immediately and then, a couple of days later the interior minister, Bacho Akhalaia, also quit.
The damage may have already been done, though. It’s not clear yet what impact the video will have on voters’ intention but it does feed into the feeling, shared by many Georgians, that not far below the glossy surface lies a more unsightly side of the current government.
The video, broadcast by two pro-opposition TV channels and apparently timed to have maximum impact on the election, may have had its desired effect.
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(News report from Issue No. 105, published on Sep. 21 2012)
AUG. 21 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man, officially declared himself the PM candidate for the opposition Georgian Dream coalition, at parliamentary elections on Oct. 1, media reported. The day before president Mikheil Saakashvili’s governing United National Movement party, said current PM, Vano Merabishvili, would be its PM candidate.
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(News report from Issue No. 102, published on Aug. 24 2012)
JULY 19 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Voters in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, voted in a presidential election, a vote unrecognised by the international community. Since a war in the 1990s, ethnic Armenians have predominantly populated Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has called the election a “provocation” and analysts have warned the vote may destabilise the area.
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(News report from Issue No. 097, published on July 20 2012)
JUNE 30 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Politics in Georgia can often be messy and spill out on to the streets.
That, possibly, is part of the reason why President Mikheil Saakashvili appointed long-time ally Vano Merabishvili as prime minister.
Mr Merabishvili has a reputation as a tough operator willing to take difficult decisions. He had been interior minister since 2004 and is credited with reforming the police and stamping out corruption — a popular move that has earned him respect and a reputation as a man of action.
Installing Mr Merabishvili as PM will boost the appeal of Mr Saakashvili’s party, the United National Movement.
It’s going to be a busy election season with a parliamentary election in October and a presidential election in January. Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili is a tough opponent. He has already proved that he can galvanise Georgia’s opposition and pulled thousands of supporters on to the streets.
Mr Saakashvili may have played one of his ace cards already by installing the popular Mr Merabishvili as prime minister.
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(News report from Issue No. 095, published on July 6 2012)
MAY 11 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Republican Party defied the doomsayers at Armenia’s parliamentary election on May 6 by increasing its share of the vote and winning a majority of seats for the first time.
The vocal opposition bloc, lead by former president Lev Ter-Petrosyan, was soundly beaten. The numbers point to a clear Republican Party victory. It won 44 percent of the party-list vote, up from 34 percent in 2007. This was topped up by 22 wins in individually contested seats, giving it a total of 69 seats in the 131-seat parliament.
This is the first time in post-Soviet Armenia that a single party has won a majority in parliament. Opinion polls in the build up to the election had predicted a Republican Party win but with a slightly reduced proportion of the vote and certainly not with a majority.
A large victory for his party is a clear boost for President Serzh Sarksyan who will be contesting a presidential election next year, a contest certain to be heated. It is also a blow to the opposition. Predictably, although European election observers declared the vote pretty fair, the opposition said it had been fraudulent and called on their supporters to protest.
Politics in Armenia is far less about policy and far more about personalities and on this occasion, it appears voters in Armenia emphatically preferred the incumbent governing party.
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(News report from Issue No. 087, published on May 11 2012)
APRIL 7 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Fierce campaigning began in Armenia for a parliamentary election scheduled for May 6. The election will be watched closely to gauge the level of support for Armenia’s vocal opposition against the Republican Party, which heads a government coalition. President Serzh Sargsyan belongs to the Republican Party.
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(News report from Issue No. 083, published on April 13 2012)