NOV. 6 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Nobody is in any doubt what the result of a presidential election in Tajikistan on Nov. 6 will be. Incumbent president Emomali Rakhmon will win with a thumping majority.
The authorities in Tajikistan have already disqualified Mr Rakhmon’s only serious contender, a female human rights campaigner. He is left to face five loyal candidates who lend only the facade of an opposition movement to the election.
In power since the end of a civil war in the mid-1990s, Mr Rakhmon, 61, does not brook opposition and this election will rubber stamp his grip over Tajikistan for another seven years.
Democracy advocates, human rights campaigners and anti-corruption lobbyists may complain but the realpolitik of the situation is more complex.
When NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan next year, Tajikistan moves onto the frontline of the fight against militant Islam. What NATO and Russia and China want more than anything else is a strongman in power who is able to impose stability and act as a bulwark against the potential move north of the Taliban.
For them, a clear win for Mr Rakhmon is their preferred option. And they’ll get it.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 159, published on Nov. 6 2013)