Tag Archives: economy

Returning Tajik migrants pressure social systems

JAN. 29 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — A recession in Russia and the collapse of the rouble has slowed remittances to Tajikistan and forced thousands of migrant workers back home, pressuring jobs, resources and social infrastructure.

Last week, Russia’s migrant service said that there were only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by a third from last year.

Tajikistan, with its poor, agricultural economy, cannot absorb the increasing number of returning migrants.

Toshboltaev Bozorboy, a 50-year- old man, was one of the returnees. He arrived back in December and said

that he’s been unable to find a job since he flew back to Tajikistan.

“I used to work in construction sites in Moscow earning 20,000 roubles a month ($263) but there is still no other option for me except to leave for Russia,” he said.

The economic downturn started in mid-2014 when oil prices started to fall and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia started to bite. Remittances from workers abroad make up around half of Tajikistan’s GDP and the economic slowdown has had a huge impact. Most Tajiks who lost their jobs in Russia said they were unable to find new jobs in Tajikistan.

Firuz Iskandarov, 23, quit Russia in August 2014. He has been out of work since then.

“Since coming back from Russia, I have done some farming and selling fruits. But that is a seasonal work. I don’t know what we are going to do,” he said, his voice choking with emotion.

For the authorities, returning migrants are a serious issue. A migration expert in Dushanbe said: “For most it will be difficult to find a decent job, and they will not be able to provide for their families. And this can lead to an increase in domestic violence, suicide, and a deterioration in criminal situations in the country.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Kazakhstan’s EXPO-2017 cuts budget

JAN. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) -The organisers of Kazakhstan’s flagship EXPO-2017 event have cut its budget by 53b tenge ($140m) to keep pace with demands from the government to slash spending during this period of low oil revenue. Previously, nothing had seemingly been too expensive or too extravagant for EXPO-2017.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Azerbaijan’s electricity exports halve

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s customs agency said electricity exports had halved in 2015 compared to the previous year. Azerbaijan exported 276.8m kWh of electricity in 2015 against 588.3m kWh in 2014. Demand for electricity in Azerbaijan has soared, forcing it to divert exports for domestic consumption.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Azerbaijan cuts defence spending

JAN. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan has cut its defence spending by 40%, IHS Jane’s Defence reported, part of its efforts to slash government costs as revenues falter in the worsening economic climate. Jane’s said that Azerbaijani government documents had shown that it had cut the so called Special Projects part of the defence budget which it estimated ran to 40% of its total budget.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Azerbaijan’s Central Bank reserves collapse

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The reserves of Azerbaijan’s Central Bank fell by 60% in 2015 to $5b, it said, highlighting just how much cash it had burned through trying to prop up its ailing manat currency. The Central Bank was forced to devalue the manat twice last year as oil prices stayed stubbornly low. The manat is now worth around 50% of its value of a year ago.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Kazakh currency rate rise

JAN. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s Central Bank increased interest rates on tenge held bank deposits by four percentage points to 14% in an attempt to defend the value of its currency. The Central Bank has maintained different interest rates on tenge and US dollar deposits for several years. US dollar deposits now earn interest of 2%, down from 3%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Thousands of migrant workers return to Tajikistan from Russia

JAN. 20 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Hundreds of migrant workers are returning to Tajikistan everyday from Russia where an economic recession has destroyed once solid jobs.

At the international airport, flights from Russia were packed full of swathy, downcast young men dejectedly carrying their belongings in bags.

They told the same story.

They had moved to Moscow, or St Petersburg, or Yekaterinburg, or a host of other Russian cities, in search of work. The usual seasonal jobs, working in factories, on construction sites, cleaning roads. These jobs had seemed safe but a recession in Russia, triggered by a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West, have wiped these out.

According to the Russian Federal Migration Service, there are now only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by nearly 30% from the 1.2m employed this time last year.

Idibek, a 24-year-old man, was standing outside the airport’s terminal building waiting for a friend to pick him up. He had just left his job in a St Petersburg chocolate factory.

“The money I earn is enough only for my living expenses in Russia,” he said.

“I used to make 30,000 roubles, which was around $800, and that was enough for me and my family in Tajikistan. Nowadays, the money I earn is a little bit more than $300.”

He didn’t know whether he would find any work now that he had returned to Tajikistan.

Russia’s economy is so important to Central Asia and the South Caucasus that its woes have hit its near-abroad like a tsunami and wreaked havoc.

Most currencies in the region have fallen by a third or half. Economic forecasts are down and Central Banks and governments are scrambling to rework budgets.

Tajikistan, with its reliance on remittances, is one of the countries hardest hit by the economic downturn in Russia. Its Central Bank has said remittances have dropped by around 40%, a heavy burden for the rest of the economy to shoulder.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Editorial: Tajikistan’s remittances

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – When it comes to worker remittances from abroad, Tajikistan is the most heavily reliant country in the world.

Transfers from migrant workers, mostly residing in Russia, made up 42% of the country’s GDP in 2014.

But the economic downturn in Russia, which sent the rouble to its historical lowest against the dollar this week, and tougher border controls and regulations have made the life of many Tajiks impossible in Russian cities. Their return en masse to Tajikistan will undoubtedly put pressure on the local job market, which isn’t flourishing either, and also strain the Tajik somoni.

This week, Georgia also published remittances data, highlighting a 39% fall in transfers from Russia.

Together with shrinking trade turnover data, low remittances volumes are a barometer of the worsening economic environment across the entire former Soviet Union. They also underscore Russia’s role as the engine-room of economies in the former Soviet Union.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Inflation doubles in Kazakhstan

JAN. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan in 2015 measured 13.6%, nearly double the rate of 2014, media reported quoting the state statistics agency. The final tally confirms that prices increased rapidly after a tenge devaluation in August. The tenge has lost around 55% of its value since Feb. 2014.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Russia quits Kyrgyz hydropower project

JAN. 20 2016, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan started the hunt for a new investor for its $2b Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project, which was supposed to transform the country into a major electricity exporter, after MPs officially voted to cancel a deal with Russia.

At the end of last month, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev said that Russia simply didn’t have enough money to finance the project any more. MPs said that they had little choice but to cancel the deal with Russia so that a search for a new investor could begin in earnest.

Dastan Bekeshev, considered a liberal progressive MP, told a Conway Bulletin correspondent that it would be hard to find a new investor at the moment.

“Kyrgyzstan will seek investors, but I am sceptical to this idea because this is an issue of geopolitics and not simply investment from foreign countries,” he said.

The cancellation of the Kambar- Ata-1 project, signed between Kyrgyzstan and Russia in 2008, is a major blow to Kyrgyzstan and one of the biggest casualties of the deepening economic malaise. And, as Mr Bekeshev said, in the current economic climate, it may be difficult for Kyrgyzstan to attract another investor.

China, the most obvious substi- tute, is trying to deal with its own economic slowdown.

Russia’s withdrawal from the Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project also shows that Russian influence in Central Asia is waning as its economic power dips.

On the streets of Bishkek, opinion was divided on the impact of Russia’s withdrawal from the project.

Aliaskar, 23, said that Russia had promised and failed to build many infrastructure projects in Kyrgyzstan.

“They said they would build gas pipelines and improve infrastructure under the Eurasian economic union, but all these things would be implemented in 50 years from now,” he said.

But Alisher, 24, said the scuppered hydropower project deal wouldn’t damage relations between Kyrgyzstan and Russia. “There are other spheres in the Kyrgyz economy where Russia has positively contributed like importing Russian gas, forgiving debt, providing security in the region and other pillars,” he said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)