Tag Archives: economy

Cashless payments grow in Kazakhstan

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Compared to the first quarter of last year, cashless payments in Kazakhstan grew by 26%, media reported. As of February 2016, cashless payments make up 15% of the total payments in the country, highlighting cash’s dominant position. The number of terminals used to take debit or credit cards in shops grew on a year-on-year basis by 24%.

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(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Tajik Sodirot Bonk forces leave

APRIL 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tojik Sodirot Bonk, one of the biggest banks in Tajikistan, is forcing staff to take unpaid leave, media reported, an indication of the serious impact of an economic downturn. There were reports earlier this year of runs on banks. Tajikistan has been hit hard by a recession in Russia which has dried up remittance flows.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Azerbaijan’s oil exports drop

APRIL 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Oil exports from Azerbaijan’s state- owned energy company SOCAR shrank by 10% in 2015 compared to 2014. In 2015, SOCAR exported 22.1m tonnes of oil, out of total country exports of 35.2m tonnes. Its share of Azerbaijan’s oil exports also fell from 70% in 2014 to 63% last year.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Kazakhstan’s $1 stores profit in tough economic times

ALMATY, APRIL 26 2016, (The Conway Bulletin) — A chain of shops touting themselves as ‘$1 stores’ has opened up in Kazakhstan, one of the few retailers apparently prospering during an increasingly vicious economic downturn.

The stores, which operate under the Russian franchise Odna Tsena, carry a classic pared-back budget look and only sell products for 300 tenge (90 cents). Under the slogan “Buy without stress!”, they sell everything from washing up liquid and toilet rolls, to processed food and toys.

And they are busy. On a midweek trip to Odna Tsena, which means One Price, in Almaty, a Bulletin correspondent spoke to four shoppers. They were all women and all appreciated the shop’s discount value.

Nataliya said that she visited the shop almost weekly.

“There is a lot of choice, it’s very comfortable. I usually buy plates and dishes and some toys for my child,” she said. “Compared to other shops it is much better.”

This store opened in December 2015, in the middle of an economic storm which has forced a 50% devaluation of the tenge, pushed up inflation to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9 and pressured cost-cutting companies to scrap thousands of jobs.

Across the world, discount stores have tended to prosper during the tougher times and Odna Tsena is bullish about its own prospects.

Botagoz Tlemisova, a director at Odna Tsena, said that the chain planned to open 50 more stores across Kazakhstan in the next three years.

“We’ve been operating for just a few months, but already we’ve seen the loyalty of our customers. Our research has shown that more than 50% of shoppers come back to our shops every two to three weeks,” she told media.

In the Almaty shop, Svetlana said she had popped in because she had heard about the knock-down prices.

“I am surprised that everything here has one price, and it is cheap. It is very relevant nowadays when prices are rising on everything,” she said. She also said she would return soon.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on  April 29 2016)

 

 

 

Kazakh Samryk-Kazyna’s income to fall

APRIL 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, said its income in 2016 would fall by around 65% due to an economic downturn, low commodity prices and high debt. In 2015, Samruk-Kazyna’s income stood at 308b tenge (around $1b), up 30% from 2014. Samruk-Kazyna also projects a slower growth in its assets. By 2020, the fund expects to hold 23.7 trillion tenge ($71b).

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Moody downgrades Kazakh sovereign debt

APRIL 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign debt rating to Bbb3 from Bbb2 and gave it a negative outlook because of sustained low oil prices and a currency devaluation last year which is said had weakened Kazakh banks. Moody’s said: “The negative outlook reflects ongoing pressure on the banking sector’s solvency, which also constrains the growth outlook and poses financial and fiscal risks.”

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Banking activity drops in Georgia

APRIL 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Data from Georgia’s Central Bank showed savings held in Georgian banks dropped by 2.4% between February and March. At the end of March, Georgia’s commercial banks held 24.7b lari, a drop of 800m lari. This is the lowest savings level since November last year. The Central Bank is concerned that inflation has slowed. Like the rest of the region, Georgia has been vulnerable to a fall in its lari currency.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

Georgia cuts interest rate for the first time in 3 years

TBILISI, APRIL 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate for the first time in three years, performing a policy U-turn designed to boost its flagging economy.

It cut its key refinancing rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, having steadily raised it from 4% throughout 2015. It said this was the first step towards a rate of around 5 or 6%.

“The Monetary Policy Committee considers it necessary to start phasing out the tight monetary policy, which means the gradual reduction of the refinancing rate down to the neutral level in the medium-term,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

“The rate of further monetary policy softening will depend on the revised inflation forecasts.”

In March, annualised inflation fell to 4.1% from 5.6% in February.

The Central Bank also dropped the lari-denominated minimum capital requirements for its commercial banks from 10% to 7% and increased the US dollar-denominated requirements.

It did this to try to push more lari into circulation and to take the US dollar off the market.

Alongside the less-than-rosy economic news, the Central Bank said that there had been signs of improved economic activity, especially in construction, but that high interest rates and other issues were a brake on potential growth.

“Another factor keeping the economic growth low is the negative impact of the economic situation in Georgia’s trade partners, reflected in the decrease of remittances and weakening of external demand,” it said.

Russia and Greece have traditionally been Georgia’s main source of remittances. Russia is currently in a recession linked to low global oil prices and Western imposed sanctions. Greece’s economy remains in recovery-mode after the impact of the 2008/9 Global Financial Crisis.

Like inflation, GDP growth has also been sluggish. The Statistics Committee said GDP grew by 2.3% in Q1, one percentage point slower than the expectations. The Central Bank expects 3% GDP growth in 2016.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Editorial: Georgia’s Central Bank

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s Central Bank sounded confident in its review of the country’s monetary policy, but looking at the data, the cheers are a bit more muted.

Yes, high interest rates have curbed inflation and stabilised the lari exchange rate — together with a few interventions in the currency market, that is — but economic activity and GDP growth have suffered.

The Central Bank has now hinted that the country needs to reach a new normal and said it will lower interest rates further in the next months.

Should Georgia be able to weather what analysts deem to be the last months of a two-year crisis, it could see growth pick up again in 2017.

The crucial issue, though, is how to boost the economy without pushing inflation too high.

Georgia is moving towards a more West-friendly economic environment, changing the tax code and giving incentives to foreign companies looking to set up shop in the country.

Both the IMF and the government now hope that their bet on the neo- liberal model will work.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

IMF schedules mission to Tajikistan

APRIL 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF said it will send a mission to Tajikistan in the next few weeks to work on a programme that could lead to a bailout, the FT reported. The IMF had previously offered help to Tajikistan, provided the government embraces a series of proposed reforms. Tajikistan has been hit hard by a regional economical downturn that has crashed into currencies and knocked out vital remittance flows from Russia.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)