FEB. 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Price inflation in Armenia is increasingly diverging between food and non-food items, the presidential adviser to the National Statistics Agency, Gurgen Martirosyan, said. In January, he said, food prices were 7.4% higher than in December 2016. Non-food prices, though, fell 3.4% and services by fell 1.8%.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 8 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmen TV said that economic growth in Turkmenistan had fallen to 6.2% in 2016, down from 6.5% in 2015. Growth of 6.2% would still mark a major achievement for Turkmenistan which is reliant on gas sales for its revenues. Political observers have often challenged the veracity of the official data coming out of Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan holds a presidential election this month that incumbent president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is set to win.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Azerbaijani manat and the Georgian lari jumped by 6.6% and 5.7% in the week to Feb. 9, a sharp jolt against their predominantly downward trajectories.
The manat was valued at 1.82/$1 on Feb. 9, a one month high. The lari was valued at 2.63/$1, a two- month high.
In Baku, some currency analysts said that this was the start of a realignment of the national currency that would see it appreciate back up to around 1.5/$1, a level not seen since mid-2016. They argued that the currency was undervalued and that as oil prices continue to rise, even slightly, and the economy improves, the manat will strengthen.
Other analysts are more cautious and have said that a multi- million dollar one-off transfer from Azerbaijan’s state oil fund to the government has boosted the value of the manat temporarily and that the decline will continue in the longer term.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Apparently looking to extend its influence in Uzbekistan and Central Asia, Kuwait said that it would funnel another $60m into various social projects, according to a notice on the Uzbek foreign ministry website. Last year Kuwait’s Fund for Arab Development pledged to give $24m to buy urology equipment for Uzbekistan’s health service.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Inflation in Georgia has started to pick up, as the Central Bank predicted. In January, prices in Georgia were 2.9% higher than they were in December, the state’s statistics service said. Annualised inflation in January 2017 measured 3.9%. In January, the Georgian Central Bank raised interest rates because it said that inflation was rising.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s government has finally admitted that prices are rising across the country, pushed up by a sharp fall in the manat currency and a dire economic outlook, but that these rises are not going to hurt ordinary people.
In a press release aimed at dampening growing frustration with the government, deputy PM Ali Ahmedov said that the government was investing in schemes that should suppress prices.
“I do not think the current level of increase in prices will affect the level of poverty in Azerbaijan,” he said.
Although evidence on the streets of people’s frustration with price rises is muted, social media sites, and especially Facebook, are full of disgruntled posts. Facebook in particular has become an important medium for ordinary people to express their views relatively freely.
One Facebook user, Elnur, said that the government was not doing enough to prevent price rises and was supporting big business over small.
“The government is guilty of not preventing large holdings and companies that create monopolies in imports, impacting price increases,” he wrote.
Irada Bayramova, a school teacher who lives in Baku, described the price rises to the Conway Bulletin.
“I used to pay 2.40 manat for tea. Now the price of the same tea is 3.27 manat. Previously 1 kg of potatoes was 1.05 manat but now I need to pay 1.59 manat,” she said.
“Everything is too expensive and the prices do not fit salaries. We cannot buy products in the market. The government needs to help us as we are in a hard situation.”
Azerbaijan’s oil-backed economy has been hit particularly hard by the economic downturn.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank chief Daniyer Akishev said that he wanted to use state funds to prop up big banks that are listing under the pressure of an economic downturn linked to a drop in oil and gas prices and a recession in Russia. He told a government meeting that the Central Bank was going to evaluate the quality of the banks’ assets later this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)
JAN. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev ordered his government to spend $2.6b developing the area around the Aral Sea, a major investment in a region that was decimated by one of the Soviet Union’s most notorious economic development policies.
Reporting on the decree, RFE/RL said that that the investment would create new jobs and homes as well as improve sanitation and medical service.
The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth largest inland water but in the 1960s, the Soviets diverted water from the great Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers that flow from the Pamir mountains into the Aral Sea, toirrigate their cotton fields. The Aral Sea was, literally starved of water. Since then the Aral Sea has lost 90% of its water and become a watchword for man-made environmental disasters.
The eye-catching initiative to regenerate the region comes at a time when Mr Mirziyoyev is trying to set himself apart from his predecessor, Islam Karimov, who died in September. He has ordered officials to repair damaged relations with neighbours and also boosted domestic investment.
Although light on detail, the plan will give Karakalpakstan, the most western and poorest region in Uzbekistan, a boost.
And it needs it. Karakalpakstan’s main city is Nukus, a former secret city built by the Soviets to house workers for their chemical weapons plants. Moynaq, 120km north through the desert, was the main city on the Uzbek side of the Aral Sea. It used to house various industries, including a plant that canned fish for export across the Soviet Union. That plant and the rest of the town now lies rotting and rusting having been abandoned in the 1980s.
Eeking out a living in Moynaq is difficult. One of its main revenue earners now is from tourists travelling from Nukus to walk around and photograph the rusting fishing fleet now marooned 60km from the Aral Sea. It is described as a ships’ graveyard.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)
JAN. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Exports from Armenia grew by 20% to $1.8b in 2016, the state statistics service reported. Russia remains the biggest trade partner with total bilateral trade of nearly $1.4b, compared to China which has bilateral trade with Armenia of $454m. Bilateral trade with Russia was up by 15%, indicating a general pick up in the economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)
JAN. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s economy grew by an estimated 2.2% in 2016, the slowest growth rate since 2009, media reported quoting the statistics service. This was a drop from 2.9% in 2015 and 4.6% in 2014. Georgia, like the rest of the region, has been trying to deal with an economic slowdown linked to a recession in Russia and an overly strong US dollar.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)