JULY 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Central Bank chief Elman Rustamov told local media that he expected the manat currency to remain stable if oil prices steadied at around $50/barrel. The Central Bank devalued the manat by a third in February.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Elman Rustamov, the Azerbaijani Central Bank chief, said that at current oil prices, Azerbaijan’s economy will continue to grow. Mr Rustamov may have been trying to reassure a jittery public. Azerbaijan’s economy has been coping with the fallout of a drop in oil prices and a downturn in Russian economic prospects.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Central Bank reported that foreign currency exchanges increased by more than 50% in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2014. In Feb., Azerbaijan devalued its manat currency by a third.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s foreign currency reserves declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2015, data from the Central Bank showed. Kazakhstan, like other countries across the region, has been defending the value of its currency by spending its reserves.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – GM Uzbekistan, a joint venture between the Uzbek government and US carmaker GM, sold 10,357 cars in Russia in the first half of this year, media reported quoting the company.
This is 57% less than in 2014 and highlights the economic problems rebounding around Central Asia linked to the decline in Russia’s economy.
Russia is one of GM Uzbekistan’s biggest market, so for it to drop away so seriously is bad news for the company.
GM Uzbekistan is based near the city of Andijan in eastern Uzbekistan.
In 2010, GM Uzbekistan employed 5,000 people. If demand for its cars, and it mainly produces mid-range Chevrolet cars at this plant, falls away significantly then these jobs may be under threat.
The drop in car sales is symptomatic of a general decline in economic conditions around the Central Asia region.
As well as a drop in exports to Russia, remittance flows back to Central Asia from workers in Moscow and beyond have dropped across the region by around 40%. Currencies have also dropped in value by around a third.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Around 30% of the Kyrgyz population live in poverty, media quoted the National Statistics agency as saying. People are considered living in poverty if they survive on less than $45/day. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in the world.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The amount of som held in Kyrgyz bank accounts has fallen by 11% since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank said, a reflection of the reduced confidence that people in Kyrgyzstan have of their national currency. The som, like other Central Asian currencies, has lost around a third of its value since November 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
TBILISI, JULY 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Bank scorned as inadequate the government’s plan to cut spending in the face of a region-wide economic downturn.
The statement will increase tension between the Central Bank and the Georgian Dream Coalition government which have become embroiled in a row about oversight of commercial banks.
Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze, who was appointed by the former government of President Mikheil Saakaashvili, and his allies have said the government’s criticism of him is politically motivated.
“Expenditures should be cut mostly at the expense of current spending,” the Central Bank said in a statement. “If the goal of the Parliament is to ease the loan burden caused by lari depreciation or to offset further downward pressure on lari, appropriate changes should be made in the [budget], which are not envisaged by the proposed draft of the budgetary amendments.” This is rare criticism.
Last month MPs voted to cut spending across different ministries. The lari has lost just over a quarter of its value since November 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 6/7/8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Indian PM Narendra Modi started an eight day tour of Central Asia and Russia with stops in Tashkent and Astana, an expedition he hopes will generate energy deals and shore up business links.
This is the first grand tour of Central Asia by an Indian leader, underlining just how seriously the country is now taking the region. But India is also playing catch up with China which has already established deep business and government level links in Central Asia.
The need to deepen relations was acknowledged by Mr Modi in a statement to media he released after meeting Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev.
“I spoke about my vision for India’s relations with Central Asia,” he said.
“Kazakhstan is our biggest economic partner in the region. But, our relations are modest, compared to our potential. We will work together to take economic ties to a new level.”
Despite the rhetoric and good will that Mr Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov before him greeted Mr Modi with, no major deals were announced.
In Tashkent, the two sides said they discussed speeding up a deal to deliver uranium from Uzbekistan to India. In Astana, the Indian and Kazakh delegations also agreed a uranium supply deal and a mechanism to broaden military cooperation.
Mr Modi headed to the Russian city of Ufa on July 9 for a two day break from Central Asia to attend a meeting of the so- called BRICS, and a group that also includes Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, and a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). India is an observer member of the SCO, an economic/security group headed by Russia and China and focused on Central Asia.
He returns to Central Asia on July 11 with a meeting in Ashgabat with Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov before travelling to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Mr Modi’s meeting with Mr Berdymukhamedov is arguably the most important.
India is the end destination for gas in an ambitious plan to build a pipeline from Turkmeni- stan across Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Year-on-year inflation in Georgian in May hit 4.5%, up from 3.5% a month previously, the official statistics said. This was the highest rate of inflation since September 2014 and confirmed an upward trend in 2015 driven mainly by alcohol, food and cigarettes.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)