MAY 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF weighed into the debate surrounding the tenge when it said the Kazakh Central Bank had enough cash to defend the currency against a sudden devaluation. The Central Bank has been under increased pressure to follow neighbours and devalue its currency.
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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)
MAY 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbeks’ lack of confidence in the som has weakened Uzbekistan’s banks, reduced their capital and hit their ability to pay salaries and pensions.
This was the withering assessment of Ulugbek Mustafayev, a deputy chairman of Uzbekistan’s Central Bank, according to a report by the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
RFE/RL said it had seen a copy of a letter, dated April 10 and stamped “official use only” written by Mr Mustafayev to Uzbek PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
The letter gives a vital, and rare, insight into official Uzbek thinking on monetary policy. It’s virtually unheard of for a senior official to speak out against his or her bosses.
In the letter, Mr Mustafayev said a lack of confidence by the population in the som currency had pushed people into relying on the black market and US dollar payments over bank accounts. He said that this had created a shortfall in capital of more than 2 trillion som ($620m) and that state pensions and salaries to interior ministry officials, the defence ministry and other government workers were not being paid.
The regional financial crisis and the fall in the som/dollar exchange rate has reduced the population’s trust in the national currency and in financial institutions.
Most transactions in Uzbekistan are reportedly carried out in cash. Mr Mustafayev said that consumers had paid in far less than expected into Uzbek banks in the first quarter of the year.
The Uzbek system, already frail, is becoming weaker, Mr Mustafayev said in his letter.
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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)
MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh Central Bank has created a $700m fund to help people pay their mortgages, a move designed to ease Kazakhstan’s mountain of bad consumer debt.
Banks in Kazakhstan have one of the highest ratios of non-performing loans in the world, a legacy of the 2008/9financial crisis. Now, with a new financial crisis linked to the drop in global energy prices and a sharp fall in the performance of the Russian economy, also hitting Kazakhstan’s mortgage holders, policy makers have been looking for ways to ease the burden.
Low-income households are the principal target of the measure, according to official sources. Families at risk will be able to access new credit at advantageous rates, in order to pay off their outstanding bill.
Around 20,000 loans obtained between 2004 and 2009 should be affected by this measure. The largest contribution will go to Kazkommertsbank, which will receive $205m and refinance the debt of 12,500 borrowers.
The rationale is simple. Policymakers have argued that people taking out mortgages between 2004-9 were relatively uneducated in the practise and may have been mis-sold a product or taken out debt that they could not finance.
Most mortgages during this period were also taken out in US dollars. The
Kazakh tenge has dropped markedly against the US dollar since then, making the loans harder to service.
Some analysts, though, have questioned the spirit of the measure.
Quoted on Forbes.kz, financial analyst Murat Temirkhanov said: “The word ‘refinancing’ has little to do with this measure. It should be described as a restructuring, i.e. an exchange of bad loans for cheap money from the state.”
Still, the new measure has the potential to revive the financial market in Kazakhstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s Central Bank said it would keep its key interest rate at 9% because the economy was set to hit its inflation target. In January the Central Bank raised its interest rate by 1%. Uzbekistan’s main currency exchange exists on the black market but the statement gives insight into the Central Bank.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
MAY 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon sacked the head of Tajikistan’s Central Bank Abdujabbor Shirinov, media reported, an apparent reaction to the continued slide of the somoni currency.
This year the somoni has nose-dived by around 20% against the US dollar as it struggled to cope with a fall in the value of the Russian rouble and a dip in Russia’s economy which has hit remittances.
Mr Shirinov, a previous Tajik ambassador to the United States and head of the Central Bank since 2012 has taken increasingly desperate measures to defend the currency. Last month he ordered exchange kiosks to be banned but instead of giving the government more control over its currency, it just forced money changers into the black market.
The Dushanbe-based ASIA-Plus reported that Jamshed Nourmahmadzoda had been appointed Tajikistan’s new Central Bank chief. Mr Nourmahmadzoda was previously head of Amonatbonk.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Apparently worried about people defaulting on mortgage payments, the Kazakh Central Bank has set up a 130b tenge ($700m) fund. Kazakh media said the Central Bank will loan cash to commercial banks who will then help people who took out mortgages, possibly in dollars, between 2004 and 2009.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, and a former Georgian PM, has once again criticised the Central Bank for failing to stop a depreciation of the lari currency, media reported. The previous government, loathed by Mr Ivanishvili, appointed the current Central Bank chief.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank held interest rates steady at 11% because of slowing inflation, media reported. Previously the Central Bank has aggressively raised interest rates to try and curb inflation generated by the falling value of the som.
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(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Timur Kulibayev, one of Kazakhstan’s richest men and son-in-law of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, criticised the Central Bank’s handling of the growing economic fallout, a rare show of dissent by a senior member of the Kazakh elite.
At a business forum in Almaty, Mr Kulibayev said he was “not satisfied with the work of the Central Bank”, specifically with regards to the lack of liquidity.
“How can entrepreneurs get access to liquidity?” he said. “How can lending become more affordable? When we travel to the regions, these are the questions we are asked.”
The fallout from a slide in the value of the Russian rouble and a drop in the price of oil has hurt economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, piling pressure on its leaders and businesses. Mr Kulibayev owns Halyk Bank, one of Kazakhstan’s biggest banks.
Once feted as a leader–-in-waiting, Mr Kulibayev has become increasingly out-spoken and isolated.
The National Chamber of Entrepreneurs (NCE), a powerful organisation which he heads, has repeatedly criticised the Central Bank’s support for the national currency despite devaluation pressure.
Last month, Umut Shayakhmetova, the CEO of Halyk Bank also said in an interview that the Central Bank was hurting the economy by not allowing the currency to free-float.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Georgia will hit 5% by end-2015, Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze told Bloomberg. Mr Kadagidze said the devaluing lari was the main reason for the predicted inflation rise. Official statistics said annualised inflation measured 2.6% in March.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)