JAN. 13 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Languishing on the Tajik-Uzbek border are dozens of railway wagons laden with food, fuel and building material bound for Tajikistan. There are plenty of potential flashpoints in Central Asia, but this backlog of railway wagons is potentially one of the most dangerous.

The Tajik authorities say that the Uzbeks are deliberately stopping the wagons from completing their journey and that this threatens to trigger a famine.

The Uzbeks counter that an important bridge which crosses the border has been washed away and it is not possible for the wagons to enter Tajikistan.

This bickering is not new. Relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been strained for most of the region’s 20 year post-Soviet history. At the source of the tension is the countries’ interlinked water-energy dynamic. While the Tajik Pamir Mountains provide vital water for Uzbek agriculture and industry, Uzbekistan provides power and transport links for Tajikistan.

But recently, to the frustration of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan (with Iranian help) has been building new dams across a major river.

The dams change the relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. They will reduce Tajikistan’s reliance on Uzbekistan for its power and, importantly, also increase its control of water supply to downstream Uzbekistan.

There are other issues to add to this combustible mix including US transport contracts and personal animosity between the countries’ leaders. All this make the railway wagons on the Uzbek-Tajik border an issue to watch.

ENDS