AUG. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The rebel Georgian region of Abkhazia voted in Raul Khajimba as its new president. Bucking expectations, Mr Khajimba won the vote in the first round, providing Abkhazia and Russia, its patron, with a show of unity. Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 2008. Georgia described the vote as illegal.
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(News report from Issue No. 197, published on Aug. 27 2014)
AUG.10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian president Vladimir Putin hosted talks between Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.Fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh has intensified over the past few weeks threatening a 1994 cease-fire.
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(News report from Issue No. 195, published on Aug. 13 2014)
AUG. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – At least 15 soldiers died around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh on probably the worst week of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan since a cease-fire in 1994.
Both sides accused the other of breaking various promises and aggravating the stand-off. International observers said they were worried the situation may slide into open conflict.
“We are seriously concerned about the recent upsurge in violence along the line of contact. The cease-fire needs to be respected,” James Warlick, a US mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia, wrote on Twitter.
The Nagorno-Karabakh stand-off is considered one of the world’s most dangerous so-called frozen conflicts.
Armenian-backed rebels have controlled the region since the UN-brokered 1994 cease-fire. Azerbaijan, though, has always pledged to re-take the enclave and has spent millions of dollars, earned through its booming energy industry, re-arming its military.
In a sign of just how sharply the situation has worsened around Nagorno-Karabakh, reports said that President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia have agreed to meet up to discuss the situation. This is rare but is a positive sign.
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(News report from Issue No. 194, published on Aug. 6 2014)
JULY 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to jointly investigate a shoot-out along its shared borders earlier this month that killed one person, media reported. The announcement was an important step in deescalating tension along the border. There have been several clashes on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 193, published on July 30 2014)
JULY 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Afghan security forces killed 14 Taliban fighters in a gun battle along the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border, media reported. Although the battle didn’t involve Turkmen forces, it acts as a reminder the Taliban operates on the edge of its border. Turkmenistan has blamed several attacks on its border posts on the Taliban.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan appears to be ramping up the pressure on Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh by holding a series of high profile military exercises along the border.
Armenian backed rebels have held Nagorno-Karabakh since a 1994 UN negotiated cease-fire but barely a week goes by without reports of isolated shootouts and casualties. Over the past decade, as Azerbaijan have become increasingly rich from oil and gas, it has also built up its weapons systems and military.
And increasingly bellicose language about war with Armenia has built up.
“Servicemen shouldn’t forget that 20 percent of the Azerbaijan’s territories are under occupation and the main task is to free these lands from invasion,” Azerbaijani Defense Minister Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov said at a ceremony to honour the militar earlier this month.
This 20% is Nagorno-Karbakh and adjacent regions.
Europe’s peace monitoring watchdog, the Organisation for Cooperation and Secutriy in Europe (OSCE) has consistently called the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh the most dangerous of the South Caucasus’ frozen conflicts.
Azerbaijani media reported that 10,000 soldiers, 300 armoured vehicles, 100 artillery pieces, 20 aircraft and 15 air defence pieces were taking part in the 3-day exercise.
This exercise is certainly large but it needs to understood in context. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan mobilised 20,000 soldiers for an exercise on the border.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia accused Azerbaijan of intensifying shelling of pro- Armenian forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tension has been rising around Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia’s defence minister, Seyran Ohanyan, also rejected calls for the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to monitor the cease-fire around Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)
JUNE 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – There seems little doubt now that security along the Afghan-Turkmen border has deteriorated markedly this year.
According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) militants from Afghanistan attacked another Turkmen border post on June 4, injuring six soldiers.
Six soldiers have already been killed this year in at least two other attacks. These are the only attacks that we’ve been told about. There could be more.
Now Daulat Mawin, an Afghan regional security chief, has confirmed the worst. RFE/RL quoted him saying that security has worsened and that the Turkmen military are now patrolling the border with helicopters.
What Central Asian states fear is the march northwards of the Taliban once NATO leaves Afghanistan. Turkmenistan is an increasingly important source of gas for the Western world and targeting it would, therefore, hit the West.
The Turkmen authorities have been tight-lipped on what is going on along their borders but they are worried and senior officials have travelled to Kabul to discuss the situation with their Afghan counterparts.
Mr Mawin, the Afghan regional security chief, appeared to have confirmed the Turkmens’ worst fears. He described the attackers of the Turkmen border post as militants rather than smugglers.
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(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)
JUNE 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia and Russia met for their 28th round of talks since the two neighbours fought a war in 2008. The two-day talks in Geneva are an important step towards normalising relations. Georgia- Russia ties have improved since 2012 when the party of Georgia’s former leader Mikheil Saakashvil started to lose power.
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(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)
JUNE 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The authorities in southern Kyrgyzstan have evacuated 35 families from the enclave of Barak, roughly half its population, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Barak is surrounded by Uzbek territory and the exodus is another indicator of growing tension between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)