OCT. 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s rebel region of Abkhazia will sign a treaty with Russia to bolster its military. Only Russia and a handful of its close allies recognise Abkhazia. By bolstering its military, Abkhazia threatens to antagonise ties with Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
BISHKEK/Kyrgyzstan, OCT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s new president is on a mission to transform his war-torn country with a shredded economy into a regional force. If he is successful, Central Asia may find in its southern neighbour a strong trading partner and occasional rival rather than the Taliban-tainted bogeyman regional governments have traditionally portrayed it as.
Central Asia’s security-first approach to Afghanistan is understandable. Both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have had to deal with Islamic extremists linked to the Taliban and other Afghan militants. Neutral Turkmenistan is also taking a newly assertive stance towards events in Afghanistan. Turkmen forces were reported as entering Afghan territory to beat back Taliban that had settled on the two countries’ border (Sept 17).
But Central Asia’s economic ties to Afghanistan are expanding. The long-stalled Turkmenistan- Afghanistan-Tajikistan rail link, which will eventually connect the country to China, looks increasingly likely to happen, while Turkmen gas may one day transit Afghanistan on its way to China.
Mr Ghani is keen to see Afghanistan as a player. His stated ambition to turn the country into an exporter of electricity may make Kabul a rival to both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The revival of Afghan agriculture may put pressure on scarce regional energy resources.
It is perhaps noteworthy that upon receiving notes of congratulations from all five Central Asian presidents following his inauguration, Mr Ghani’s warmest words were for Kazakhstan and Nursultan Nazarbayev (Sept.29). “Kazakhstan is an important friend and positive example,” he told Kazakh foreign minister Erlan Idrissov at his inauguration.
If Mr Ghani can take Afghanistan on a similar journey, then the country will be ready to both compete and cooperate with Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)
OCT. 4-6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A visit by the mayor of a French town to the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, controlled by Armenia-backed rebels but claimed by Azerbaijan, triggered an official complaint by the Azerbaijani government. Tensions are increasingly fraught around the Nagorno-Karabakh border zones.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)
SEPT. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan lawmakers want to arm villagers living in disputed areas along its borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
A majority of Parliamentarians debating the plan say they want to help people defend themselves but the military has said the strategy will only worsen already tense cross- border relations.
The initiator of the legislation, Bakyt Torobayev of the Progress parliamentary splinter faction claims the initiative will save budget money. Paying a civilian that already lives on the border will cost less than housing, feeding and paying a soldier, he has argued.
Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Council issued a statement as parliament discussed the legislation. “(Arming) ordinary citizens without higher or military education and preparation for border service, can have consequences, including their potential participation in illegal migration, narcotics trafficking and contraband,” it said.
Medet Tiulegenov, a political science professor at the American University of Central Asia was also against the plan.
“This issue has been raised in the context of insufficient formal security on the border,” Mr Tiulegenov told The Conway Bulletin. He also said that security issues are beyond the parliament’s formal mandate.
“But when government itself lacks a clear vision on border issues and security in the country, MPs exploit that lack of clarity and try to make a name for themselves,” he said.
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(News report from Issue No. 202, published on Oct. 1 2014)
SEPT. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – n a speech to the UN, Turkmen foreign minister Rashid Meredov underlined Turkmenistan’s neutrality. This is important in regards to Afghanistan where reports have surfaced saying that Turkmen forces have crossed over the border to build defence positions against Taliban incursions.
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(News report from Issue No. 202, published on Oct. 1 2014)
I
SEPT. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia swore in Raul Khajimba as its new president after he won an election in August. Georgia has described the election as illegal. Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia after a Georgia-Russia war in 2008. It is considered a Russian vassal state.
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(News report from Issue No. 202, published on Oct. 1 2014)
SEPT.13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Other than providing a forum for bilateral get-togethers and photoshoots it is difficult to see what makes the Shanghai Cooperation multilateral.
To much fanfare, the six members plus observers of the organisation met in Dushanbe, releasing what can only be described as a nondescript Dushanbe Declaration at the closing of the summit.
Containing both Russia and China, the SCO remains the most notable intergovernmental organisation in the region but places no binds on members, several of whom have significant bilateral tensions with one another.
Outcomes of the 13th summit are open to interpretation. The Dushanbe declaration’s blanket statement supporting “continued negotiations” to achieve peace in Ukraine was presented by Russian media as support for Moscow’s controversial policies in the civil war, despite the organisation’s general opposition to separatism.
Neither Pakistan, who Beijing favours as a member, or India, who Russia favours, were admitted to the club, although this may happen in the SCO’s 14th summit held in Ufa, Russia, next year. Islamabad and New Delhi’s rivalry may add further complication within the organisation’s disunited membership.
One big disappointment was that bilateral meetings in the summit’s backdrop failed to resolve Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s border conflict, or the long-standing tensions between Dushanbe and Tashkent.
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(News report from Issue No. 200, published on Sept.17 2014)
SEPT. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan started a week-long military exercise with its closest ally Turkey. The military exercise acted as a major show of force by Azerbaijan which is still officially at war with neighbouring Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 200, published on Sept.17 2014)
SEPT. 4-5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – NATO took, yet another, tentative step towards admitting Georgia to its club at its conference in Cardiff.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish head of the US-led military group, said that a substantive package had been drawn up to help aspiring members join.
“Each aspirant has work to do in different areas and we will give them support they need,” he said. “We agreed on substantive package of measures for Georgia that will help Georgia advance in its preparations towards membership of NATO.”
This is good news for Georgia, and probably as good as it could realistically have expected. Ukraine is another country that wants to join NATO, as well as Australia, a more easy country for NATO to accept.
The 28-member NATO also agreed to boost Georgia’s military defences.
Georgia fought a brief war with Russia in 2008 and is dealing with two frozen conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The problem for the NATO member states is that they want to show a strong face against Russian aggression in the former Soviet Union but they also want to avoid inheriting a load of problems that could well drag them into somebody else’s war.
All-in-all, the NATO summit probably lived up to expectations from Georgia.
“We will have very important steps taken in regard of NATO standards by the next summit (in Poland in 2016),” said Georgian president Giorgi Margvelashvili.
It remains to be seen if Mr Margvelashvili is being realistic or just optimistic.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
AUG. 26 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Two Tajiks — a civilian and a soldier — died in a shootout with Kyrgyz forces on the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border, the most serious violence along the disputed boundary this year. The row between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan threatens to destabilise the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 197, published on Aug. 27 2014)