OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Banks in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are bracing themselves for tough times ahead. The currency crisis that has hit the region has, it feels, still a long way to run. Central Banks in both countries have pledged to help commercial banks in the short term to prevent falls in the values of the tenge and som from spiraling into panic and a run on the banks.
This is sensible.
The Kazakh Central Bank said it would compensate savings accounts in tenge that have so far lost 46% in US dollar terms after the regulator moved to a free-float policy. Across the border, in Bishkek, the Central Bank laid out new measures to help customers pay their dollar- denominated mortgages, which have become more expensive as the som lost value.
When people lose confidence in their currency, as is happening across Central Asia and the South
Caucasus, Central Banks intervene. In both countries, new policies were adopted to limit the amount of loans in foreign currencies, to ensure stability in the market.
These short-term measures, however, may have serious repercussions down the road. Bailouts can have an adverse effect on these countries’ sovereign ratings and they could, in any case, be insufficient to reverse the economic downturn.
Let’s see how these policies fair against a falling currency market.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)