APRIL 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Defence ministers from Turkey and Azerbaijan flew to Tbilisi to discuss improving cooperation. Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia agreed last year to set up trilateral meetings. Armenia has been cast aside from the group.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev visited Saudi Arabia only a few days after members of the United Arab Emirates’ royal family had travelled to Baku for talks.
Some analysts have said that Mr Aliyev is looking to boost his alliances with Arab states as a potential bulwark against improving US-Iran ties.
“Saudi Arabia will extend its investment in Azerbaijan. We are both Muslim countries and Azerbaijan has good relations with Saudi,” Vahid Ahmadov, an independent MP, told the Bulletin.
In many ways it suits Azerbaijan to have its neighbour, Iran, ostracised and demonised by the international community. The thinking goes that if Iran is considered a rogue state, the US and Israel need Azerbaijan more. This month, at talks in Switzerland, the US moved to relax sanctions imposed on Iran because of concerns about its nuclear programme.
The opposition ReAl movement said that Mr Aliyev had been trying to woo Arab states because he needed more cash for various pipeline projects.
“Azerbaijan will need huge money for the TAP and TANAP projects. Oil revenues are falling and the government needs to find loans,” media reports quoted Azer Gasimli, an opposition activist, as saying.
“The IMF and World Bank set disturbing standards which require economic reforms for Aliyev. For him it is better to find loans from Arab countries.”
The EU and Western companies are investing in Azerbaijani energy and the infrastructure needed to transport it to markets. Azerbaijan, though, needs cash now.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have reportedly broken ranks with other former Soviet states and declined to sign a memo calling for sanctions on Russia to be dropped.
At a meeting of foreign ministers in Bishkek most members of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) agreed to back the petition which was to be sent to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) (April 3).
But Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan — along with Ukraine and Moldova — declined to sign the document, the local language service of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
All three of the Central Asian and South Caucasus countries have form.
Azerbaijan’s cause is probably a sovereignty issue. It doesn’t want to set a precedent that would allow the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh to drift further from its control.
Uzbekistan’s reasons are more deep-rooted and linked to its traditional unilateral stance on issues concerning Russia.
And Turkmenistan could be just aiming to irritate Russia.
It appears that Ashgabat is locked in a worsening row with Russia over gas supplies and the devaluation of the rouble. Earlier this year, Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymkuhamedov blamed Russia for Central Asia’s economic troubles.
Regardless, the failure to secure the full backing of CSTO members in Bishkek is a — largely overlooked — diplomatic miss for Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Mudslides in Tajikistan have killed at least 10 people, media reported. The mudslides highlight the often poor state of infrastructure in Tajikistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan is planning to relax its visa regime for the inaugural European Games in Baku on June 12, the US Chamber of Commerce in Azerbaijan said. Ten days ahead of the Games, people with tickets will be able to apply for a visa on arrival at Baku airport.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Timur Kulibayev, one of Kazakhstan’s richest men and son-in-law of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, criticised the Central Bank’s handling of the growing economic fallout, a rare show of dissent by a senior member of the Kazakh elite.
At a business forum in Almaty, Mr Kulibayev said he was “not satisfied with the work of the Central Bank”, specifically with regards to the lack of liquidity.
“How can entrepreneurs get access to liquidity?” he said. “How can lending become more affordable? When we travel to the regions, these are the questions we are asked.”
The fallout from a slide in the value of the Russian rouble and a drop in the price of oil has hurt economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, piling pressure on its leaders and businesses. Mr Kulibayev owns Halyk Bank, one of Kazakhstan’s biggest banks.
Once feted as a leader–-in-waiting, Mr Kulibayev has become increasingly out-spoken and isolated.
The National Chamber of Entrepreneurs (NCE), a powerful organisation which he heads, has repeatedly criticised the Central Bank’s support for the national currency despite devaluation pressure.
Last month, Umut Shayakhmetova, the CEO of Halyk Bank also said in an interview that the Central Bank was hurting the economy by not allowing the currency to free-float.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek sum dropped by 17% on the black market immediately after incumbent president Islam Karimov won a presidential election at the end of last month, data showed.
In Uzbekistan, the black market is vital to monitor as it most accurately tracks the value of the sum against the US dollar. Bank rates are fixed.
Uzmetronom, an independent news source, said the sum is trading at 4,200-4,500 sums per $1 on the black market, double the official rate. The website didn’t give any reasons why the sum had fallen so sharply after the election. Generally, though, the drop in remittance from Russia, the fall in energy prices and a fall in the value of the rouble have pressured the sum’s value.
Prices for basic goods are also rising, which is putting pressure on minimum wage workers.
Elections in both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this spring were supposed to bring about stability and reinforce trust. Instead, though, they may be bringing more instability.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – India’s external affairs minister, Sushma Swaraj, flew to Ashgabat to meet Turkmen officials to, possibly, push the TAPI pipeline project along. TAPI aims to carry Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan plans to tackle a lack of electricity by building small hydropower plants in different parts of the country over the next few years, media quoted industry minister Batyrkul Baetov as saying. One of Kyrgyzstan’s few natural resources is water.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – British and US soldiers have flown to Kazakhstan to take part in the Steppe Eagle annual military exercise. The exercise is routine but it is still a useful reminder that although Kazakhstan is close to Russia, it has also cultivated close ties with NATO forces.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)