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Comment: Uzbekistan’s smooth power transition

SEPT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In some quarters it had been feared that Islam Karimov’s death in Uzbekistan would set off instability in Central Asia’s largest country as rival groups battled for control. So far, though, the power transition in Uzbekistan since Karimov’s death on Sept. 2 has been smooth.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the former PM, has been installed as acting president and will, presumably, be given the job on a full-time basis at an election in December. There is still some time before his coronation can be complete but, so far, there doesn’t appear to be any other actors coming to the fore to challenge Mirziyoyev’s ascension.

There are several striking characteristic about the smooth Uzbek power shift. Firstly, it appears to have been well-organised and well-rehearsed before Karimov’s death. The authorities were able to control the information flow, apparently even delaying the official announcement of Karimov’s death until they were ready, put together a state funeral and arrange for the Speaker of the Senate to decline taking over in favour of Mirziyoyev.

There was planning and agreement in all this. Deals were made on how to retain power and status in Uzbekistan well before Karimov died.

And the second point is that Karimov must have been in on it.

He must have agreed to this succession process while he was alive. It appears that he finally gave up on the idea of installing his favourite daughter, Gulnara, as his successor in 2014. She was deeply unpopular with ordinary Uzbeks and the elite may have considered her a liability that they wanted to get out of the way before dealing with the succession issue.

Their chance came in 2013 and 2014 with corruption accusations linked to Western telecoms companies which had paid out bribes to the Karimovs seven years earlier to access the Uzbek market. The Uzbek elite were then able to imprison Gulnara’s supporters and place her under house arrest. She has not been seen or heard of since.

March 2014, marked the real transition of power in Uzbekistan. Karimov was unable to protect his daughter and most probably had to go along with plans devised by the Uzbek elite to hold on to power.

And their plan meant stripping the Karimov family of power.

In Uzbekistan this month we have seen the natural culmination of what is effectively an internal Uzbek regime change.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Russia to increase gas supplies from Uzbekistan

SEPT. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has intensified talks to increase gas supplies from Uzbekistan, as it looks to buy more Central Asian gas. Alexei Miller, chairman of Russia’s gas company Gazprom, met with Alisher Sultanov, his counterpart from Uzbekistan’s state-owned energy company Uzbekneftegaz, in Moscow. Last year, Gazprom imported 6.4b cubic metres of Uzbek gas. Gazprom has been steadily increasing its dealings with Uzbekistan, once seen as the most awkward of the Central Asian states. The death this month of Uzbek Pres. Islam Karimov may also improve bilateral relations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Georgia’s trade balance worsens

SEPT. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s foreign trade balance worsened, as imports increased and exports decreased in the first eight months of 2016 compared to the same period last year, the Statistics Committee said. Exports fell by 10% to $1.3b, while imports rose to $6.1b, a 23% jump.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Azerbaijan’s opposition protests

SEPT. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s opposition coalition, the National Council of Democratic Forces held a rally in Baku, protesting against the upcoming constitutional referendum. The coalition said the rally would be the first of a series of demonstrations against the government’s plans to change the Constitution. Wrapped in flags and chanting against corruption, thousands took part in the rally. The organisers said over 10,000 participated. Official figures said only 2,500 were at the rally. Importantly, the rally had been authorised by local officials.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Berdy scraps age limit for Turkmen presidents

SEPT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov signed amendments into the Constitution that will allow him to be president indefinitely, completing a busy round of political manoeuvring this summer across Central Asia.

Mr Berdymukhamedov’s tweaks to the Turkmen constitution follow the death of Islam Karimov, president of Uzbekistan, and the apparent promotion of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as his successor, and a reshuffle of top officials by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev designed to secure his succession.

The Turkmen Constitutional amendments, approved in one day by Parliament and the Council of Elders, removed the age limit on the president, previously set at 70, and extended presidential terms from five to seven years.

Turkmenistan holds a presidential election next year, which the 59-year- old Mr Berdymukhamedov referenced when he commented on the Constitutional amendments.

“The Presidential elections will demonstrate the social and political activity and maturity of our citizens and their understanding of the greatest importance of elections in defining the future of the country,”

Neutral Turkmenistan, the government’s official news agency, quoted Mr Berdymukhamedov as saying.

Turkmenistan is considered one of the most repressive countries in the world. It has never held an election judged by Western vote monitors to be free and fair and has no free media.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Azerbaijan’s GDP to drop, says IMF

SEPT. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF published a report on the state of Azerbaijan’s economy, forecasting a GDP contraction of 2.4% in 2016. The IMF said that lower oil prices, weak regional growth, currency devaluations, and lower hydrocarbon production have impacted Azerbaijan’s economic performance. In its report, the IMF said Azerbaijan’s GDP will resume growth in 2017.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Court charges with espionage former Kyrgyz PM’s son

SEPT. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Bishkek sentenced Altynbek Muraliyev, son of former Kyrgyz PM Amangeldi Muraliyev, to 22 years in prison for treason and espionage, toughening its previous sentence of 12 years in prison. Muraliyev was arrested in November 2014, while attempting to flee Kyrgyzstan. The National Security Service said he had given classified information to foreign governments.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Tajikistan’s trade turnover drops

SEPT. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover in Jan.-Aug. 2016 fell by 7.6% compared to the same period last year, on account of lower imports, Tajikistan’s Central Bank said. Tajikistan exported goods worth around $600m, a decrease of 1.9% compared to last year. Notably, Tajikistan imported less than $2b- worth of goods in the first eight months of the year, a 9% decline compared to 2015.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Currency booths start selling US dollars again in Azerbaijan

BAKU, SEPT. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Currency exchanges in Azerbaijan have started selling US dollars once again after the Central Bank sold $300m and increased interest rates to their highest level since 2008 to support the manat.

The near-emergency measures were taken last week after currency booths stopped selling US dollars because of a lack of confidence in the Azerbaijani manat which had lost 11% of its value since the start of June. Confidence in the manat was destroyed last year when two devaluations wiped 50% off the value of the currency.

Azerbaijan’s economy is reliant on oil for its revenues and the government has been slashing projects to account for the drop in revenues. Even so, economists forecast a GDP drop this year.

“There is a crisis in every single sector of the economy, starting from trade, ending in construction, agriculture, and services,” Zohrab Ismayilov, a Tbilisi-based Azerbaijani economist told The Conway Bulletin.

And this is being felt at street level where jobs have been lost, savings cut in half and prospects diminished. Earlier this year a series of protests across the country, unusual in Azerbaijan where the security forces normally maintain a tight grip, shook the government.

Rashad, 31, the owner of a small catering business in Baku, told the Conway Bulletin that like most Azerbaijanis he has had to resort to using the Black Market to exchange manat into US dollars.

“I had to have dollars and at the weekend I could not find an open bank which has a running exchange service. So, I found a friend who knows an illegal exchange place and did my exchange there,” he said.

And the economy is tightening.

“Because of the economic situation, companies are cutting their costs and the market is becoming too narrow,” he said.

Mr Ismayilov, the economist, said that the Azerbaijani government could only prop up the currency for so long.

“Everybody now expects the third devaluation,” he said.

“It is very likely to happen by the end of this year. And it will be a big blow to the economy.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Ministers resign in Georgia

SEPT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Two ministers linked to the ruling Georgian Dream party resigned ahead of the October election to comply with eligibility requirements. Otar Danelia, minister of agriculture, and Kakha Kaladze, minister of energy, resigned to run as high-profile candidates in the Georgian Dream ranks. Under Georgia’s election rules, ministers have to resign to run.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)