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Georgian Patriarch Ilia II: The tireless go-between

NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Patriarch Ilia II, head of Georgia’s Orthodox Church, has been in Moscow all week, officially to celebrate the 70th birthday of his Russian counterpart, Kirill.

This will, no doubt, form part of his trip, as will various lengthy, ornate and beautiful cathedral and church services. But another, important, side of the trip will be the semi-official diplomacy that he pursues.

This has been a vital channel for conversations between Russia and Georgia since strained relations broke down altogether in August 2008 and triggered a war that lasted for five days. It was on a trip to Moscow four months later that Patriarch Ilia started the ball rolling for the lengthy rapprochement that is continuing today.

And Patriarch Ilia’s natural ease with Russia and his Russophile outlook go back to his upbringing. He was born Irakli Ghudushauri-Shiolashvili to Georgian parents in the Russian town of Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia. He completed his theologian studies in Moscow before returning to Georgia and making his way up the ranks of the Georgian Orthodox Church.

Patriarch Ilia was promoted to Patriarch in 1977, reportedly against the wishes of the Communist party who suspected that he had nationalist tendencies, after the death of David V. It was during these last 12 years of Soviet rule that Patriarch Ilia really established himself in the eyes of his countryman as a true patriot. He built up the prestige and influence of the Georgian Orthodox Church and also, towards the end of the Soviet rule, supported independence marches.

Now aged 83, Patriarch Ilia is able to play the elder statesman of Georgian politics and society. Georgia’s politics is a fractious, personal affair but most Georgians regard Patriarch Ilia to stand head and shoulders above the rest. He has been dubbed the most trusted man in Georgia.

And he still weighs into conflicts, soothing rows and acting as a negotiator. During the final antagonistic days of Mikheil Saakshviliv’s presidency, Patriarch Ilia was called on more than one occasion to negotiate between the government and protesters.

A deeply conservative man, his anti-abortion, anti- gay rights views hold enormous sway over public opinion in Georgia. The new government has
already started to change the constitution to enshrine marriage as an act only between a man and a woman.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakh President discusses his succession

NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> In his interview with Bloomberg, Nazarbayev says that he won’t hand power to his children. What do you think he means by this?

>> If you read the interview closely, it is not as clear as that. He says in the interview that he “doesn’t envisage succession for his children” and that it is “not a question for us”. Instead he says that it is up to the Kazakh people to decide through the constitution. This, of course, means through an election. I think that Nazarbayev has deliberately left this ambiguous. He is certainly not ruling out encouraging one of his two daughters, or their children, to take over form him but he is saving that whoever does will have to win a presidential election to earn legitimacy.

>> So you don’t think it is as clear cut as the Bloomberg headline writers make out. They were definitive and gave the story the headline: ‘Kazakh President Nazarbayev Says Power Won’t Be Family Business’.

>> That’s right. I think that he is leaving his options open, fully open. Of course, he can’t sit there in a Bloomberg interview and say that he favours handing over power to Dariga which, as we have said, is a likely scenario. Instead he has to say that the constitution has to be respected and the people have to decide. This can easily be manipulated to give Nazarbayev the result he wants. He just needs his Nur Otan party to select his chosen candidate and then for an election to pass this off successfully. Don’t forget that Western observers have never judged an election in Kazakhstan to be free fair. This generally means that the Kazakh elite can host can election but still generate the results that they need.

>> Right. So, when the time is right, Nur Otan picks Nazarbayev’s favoured candidate. An election is called which this candidate wins. This means that the constitution has been respected and the people have made their choice. Is that right?

>> That process would certainly fit with the process that Nazarbayev described in his Bloomberg interview. We don’t know who he favours but his interview with Bloomberg, in our view, certainly did not reduce Dariga’s chances of becoming his successor.

>> What else was important to pick up on in the interview?

>> I actually think that it’s important that Nazarbayev said he’d be happy to stay on as president past 2020. This had been the date we’d been expecting him to stand aside, he will be 80-years-old in 2020, but he’s now signalled that he is no rush to sort out the succession issue in Kazakhstan and that he’d be prepared to wait until 2025 or, dare we say it, beyond that to sort out this troublesome issue. I thought that Nazarbayev looked spritely in the interview. For a man of 76, he is clearly in good nick.

>> And, what about his comments on Trump? Surely they were important too?

>> Yes and no. I wouldn’t have expected anything else. He has to welcome Trump as the next US President. All the leaders of the Former Soviet Union do. Hillary Clinton would have meant more of the same, which essentially was poor Russia-US relations souring the whole ex-Soviet space. With Trump it’s a clean slate. Nobody is sure what he is going to do.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakhstan-based financial institutions sign agreement

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan-based financial institution Almex Holding and Dutch company Staay Food Group signed an agreement to create a joint venture to develop agribusiness in Kazakhstan. They want to create a distribution network with local farmers. At a later stage, Staay Food said it plans to build greenhouses to boost exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. Almex group controls Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second- largest bank, and is owned by President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara and her husband, Timur Kulibayev.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Turkey’s Erdogan flies into Uzbek capital to meet Mirziyoyev

NOV. 17/18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Uzbekistan to meet acting president Shavkat Mirziyoyev and lay flowers at the grave of former Uzbek president Islam Karimov who died in September.

The death of Karimov has given Uzbekistan the chance to repair damaged international relations, including with Turkey.

Turkey had been the first country to recognise Uzbekistan’s independence in 1991 but relations shortly soured and have been terse for the past 20 years.

Mr Erdogan’s visit was one of his most high-profile visits to Uzbekistan, he brought with him most of his top ministers, and came at a crucial time.

As well as repairing relations with Uzbekistan, he is looking to build support for his crackdown on civil society since a coup attempt earlier this year.

Relations between Turkey and the European Union have collapsed and Mr Erdogan now says that he wants Turkey to join the Russia and China- led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Mr Erdogan and Mr Miriziyoyez didn’t announce any major policy changes after their meeting, although they did pledge closer cooperation and various small business deals.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

S&P improves credit outlook for Georgian Co.

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s improved the credit outlook for Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation from negative to stable, saying its performance had improved. Standard & Poor’s affirmed the company’s credit rating at B+/B and positively reviewed the financial health of the company, which is poised to decrease reliance on loans.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kyrgyz opposition threatens President

NOV. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Omurbek Tekebayev, one of the opposition figures in Kyrgyzstan being investigated for allegedly setting up offshore accounts in Kyrgyzstan, said that he had started collecting signatures to impeach president Almazbek Atambayev. Mr Tekebayev is a member so the Ata Meken party which walked out of a government coalition in October over Mr Atambayev’s plans to hold a referendum in December that would extend the powers of the PM.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Total signs deal to produce gas at Azerbaijan’s Abershon

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — French energy company Total signed an agreement to develop the first phase of the Absheron gas and condensate field in Azerbaijan, a major boost for the country’s oil and gas sector, although it also said that production levels would be far lower than originally projected.

Total discovered Absheron in 2011 and owns a 40% stake in the project. Other shareholders include state- owned SOCAR (40%) and ENGIE, a French utility company (20%).

The company had said the field, off the Absheron peninsula, around 60km from Baku, would produce 5b cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually in the first stages and between 7 and 8 bcm at a later stage. But Total’s latest press release told a different story.

“The development involves the drilling of one well at a water depth of 450 meters. Production from this high pressure field will be around 35 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, including a significant portion of condensate,” Total said.

This means that yearly production volume would be around 2.1 bcm, 60% smaller than originally planned.

Analysts said that the Azerbaijani government has pressured Total into producing at Abershon ahead of the original target start date, possibly forcing it to cut output targets.

“If they previously planned to produce first gas in 2022, now they talk about the beginning of 2020,” Ilham Shaban, head of the Caspian Barrel research outfit, told the Vestnik Kavkaza website.

Absheron’s gas will compensate for declining domestic production in Azerbaijan, according to Total.

“The produced gas will supply Azerbaijan’s domestic market,” the company said.

Azerbaijan’s gas production has flatlined in recent years to around 19bcm and it is poised to decline this year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakhstan-based Central Asia Metals expands

NOV. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — London-listed copper producer Central Asia Metals said it bought an 80% interest in a copper exploration property in northern Kazakhstan. The company said that it paid local company GRK-Aksu around $1m for the stake and has pledged to invest another $1m in the deposit in 2017.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakh mayor to bring London cabs

NOV. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Gabidulla Abdrakhimov, mayor of Shymkent in southern Kazakhstan, flew to London to meet British business representatives and to float the idea of bringing the iconic London cabs to his city. Gipsy cabs are commonplace in Kazakhstan, although taxi companies and ride-hailing apps have gained an increasing share of the market in recent years. In 2012, Magnesium Bronze’s London cabs became the only official taxi brand in Baku, Azerbaijan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Russia approves military deals with Uzbekistan

NOV. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian PM Dmitri Medvedev approved an agreement to develop military technology ties between Russia and Uzbekistan, an early indication that ties between the two countries are already improving less than two months after the death of former president Islam Karimov. Acting president Shavkat Mirziyoyev has made improving Uzbekistan’s international relations a priority. Russian president Vladimir Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to visit Uzbekistan after the death of Karimov in September.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)