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Kazakhstan posts current account deficit

FEB. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan posted a $5.3b current account deficit in 2015, the Central Bank said. The balance of payments in Kazakhstan has been in the red for six consecutive quarters now. The Central Bank said a sharp drop in the price of oil has cut the value of Kazakhstan’s main export. The new Central Bank figures show a 42.6% drop in the US dollar value of Kazakhstan’s exports in 2015, compared to the previous year.

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(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

 

Azerbaijani bank declares bancruptcy

FEB. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Texnikabank became the fourth commercial bank in Azerbaijan to declare bankruptcy since the Central Bank started to withdraw licences from those banks it considers to be too small or weak. The Central Bank has previously said that people with savings of up to 30,000 manat ($19,000) will be fully compensated if their savings bank goes bankrupt. In January, Azerbaijan withdrew the licence for at least eight banks to operate because they fell below the required minimum capitalisation limit. Those banks have been choosing whether to merge or to go bankrupt since then.

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(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

 

TCO posts production record in Kazakhstan

FEB. 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tengizchevroil, the Chevron-operated oil project near Atyrau in western Kazakhstan, produced a record 27.16m tonnes of oil in 2015, up from 26.7m tonnes in 2014, media reported quoting the company. The data underlines Tengizchevroil’s status as Kazakhstan’s biggest oil exporter. It was supposed to have been overtaken by the giant Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea by now but faulty gas pipes have had to be repaired on this project, delaying production until either the end of this year or 2017.

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(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

 

Georgian State Electrosystem announces deal

FEB. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The state-owned electricity distributor Georgian State Electrosystem (GSE) said it will earn 1m lari (US$400,000) per month for transiting electricity after deals were signed by Russia and Armenia, and Azerbaijan and Turkey, at the beginning of February. A GSE spokesperson told local media this was a “historic event” for Georgia’s energy sector. Georgia has been transforming itself into an important transit country for electricity, oil and gas.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

 

Azerbaijan’s President dismisses tax code

FEB. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused to sign into law a bill that would have imposed a 20% tax on all foreign currency investments, media reported, an apparent U-turn on a much-heralded government strategy unveiled last month to head off a worsening currency crisis. Azerbaijan’s currency lost around half its value in 2015 and the Central Bank has been under pressure to stop businesses cashing out of manat into other currencies. By refusing to sign the bill, though, Mr Aliyev is effectively saying that law- makers and the Central Bank have to re-think their policies.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

 

IMF says Azerbaijan is well placed to deal with economic downturn

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF said it would increase technical support to Azerbaijan after a week-long mission that focused on whether or not to give an emergency loan to help Baku ride out worsening economic conditions.

Concluding its trip to Baku, the IMF mission also said the government was well-placed to deal with the economic downturn.

It made no mention of a potential $4b emergency loan that media had previously reported was being negotiated.

“Looking ahead, economic growth and balance of payments pressures are likely to remain major challenges for the authorities in the near term,” the IMF said in a statement.

Azerbaijan’s economy is reliant on oil exports. Its currency has fallen by a third in the past month, inflation is speeding up and discontent is rising.

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(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

 

Kazakh President tells people not to panic

JAN 29 2016, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — At a televised conference for his Nur Otan political party, a stony faced Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev played down a 50% drop in the value of the tenge currency and told viewers to look at the economic positives.

Mr Nazarbayev likes to act the elder father figure during times of economic and political strife in Kazakhstan and with oil prices at a 12- year-low, government spending being cut and inflation rising, Mr Nazarbayev clearly thought it was time to calm the increasingly jittering nerves of his countrymen.

“We have been living with $30 per barrel oil for half a year now and nothing has happened. We will overcome (this) and maybe we should get used to this, I think it has come here to stay,” he told the 2,000 assembled delegates.

Kazakh officials know that they are treading a thin line and are eager to head off any sign of discontent.

In Azerbaijan, unease at the economic malaise triggered several clashes between protesters and police in regional towns last month but in Kazakhstan, the authorities have been able to dampen public frustration.

Judging the public mood — when to be firm and when to be conciliatory — is a key skill during this time of economic hardship and one that Mr Nazarbayev has previously shown that he is adept at.

Last month, Mr Nazarbayev called a parliamentary election for March, 18 months early. Analysts said that this had been arranged so that Mr Nazarbayev and his officials could hold an election now, before the economic situation worsened further.

At the Nur Otan conference, though, Mr Nazarbayev avoided mention of the election and instead told Kazakhs that the government was working hard to look after them.

“We support our working population through implementation of the Employment Roadmap-2020 Program. There is no place for unemployment in Kazakhstan. We have all resources in place to avoid it,” he said.

Official unemployment figures in Kazakhstan are considered unreliable. Correspondents in Kazakhstan, though, and reports from various regional towns suggest that people are losing their jobs.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

 

Inflation increases in Georgia

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation in Georgia rose to 5.6% at the end of January, the state’s statistics agency said, an increase from 4.9% in December. Inflation increased steadily in Georgia last year hitting 6.3% in November, fuelled by a drop in the value of the Lari currency, until it dropped off slightly. By comparison, in January 2015, annualised inflation had been 1.4%.

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(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

 

Russia boosts assistance to Tajikistan

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia’s deputy defence minister Anatoly Antonov said that Russia would supply Tajikistan with all the equipment and intelligence that it needed to fend off various threats from the Taliban who are looking increasingly powerful. Mr Antonov made the promise on a trip to Tajikistan a few days after news that Taliban forces in Afghanistan had attacked a power-line running from Uzbekistan to Kabul. Central Asian states are increasingly worried about a resurgent Taliban.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

 

Stock market: Bank of Georgia, Tethys, Centerra

FEB. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Bank of Georgia shares were up 6.9% this week, closing at £18.14 on Thursday. The bank has followed a downward trend since the beginning of the year, but news of the merger between its corporate banking and investment management departments lifted its shares.

BGEO Group, the holding that owns Bank of Georgia, said it is confident that the move will boost returns and reduce risk.

Tethys Petroleum shares jumped by 19.7% to 2.25p off the back of stable oil prices, leading an upbeat crowd of oil and gas companies involved in the region. Only Nostrum continued the slump.

Among miners, Centerra Gold posted a significant jump of 7.2% to 6.73 Canadian dollars after the Mongolian parliament unblocked negotiations over ownership and licences linked to one of their gold mines in the north of the country.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)