Tag Archives: politics

Georgia’s parliamentary election likely to be fraught

TBILISI, SEPT. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Election Commission said that 41 political parties had registered to compete in the country’s Oct. 8 parliamentary elections, highlighting the potentially fraught and unpredictable nature of the vote.

It also said that the 41 political parties had formed seven blocs, including the current governmental Georgian Dream and the United National Movement (the party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili).

Pollsters have said the election is going to be too close to call. A poll by the US’ National Democratic Institute (NDI) in July said 58% of voters were still undecided.

“This level of undecided people just weeks before an election should be a wake up call for all the contesting parties,” said Laura Thornton NDI senior director.

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(News report from Issue No. 295, published on Sept. 9 2016)

Comment: Mirziyoyev promoted to acting Uzbek president

SEPT. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s parliament named PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev as interim president, another step towards confirming him as Islam Karimov’s successor.

Two days earlier, Mr Mirziyoyev had appeared to win the endorsement of Russian president Vladimir Putin, the region’s real kingmaker, when he visited Karimov’s grave in Samarkand.

Mr Mirziyoyev fills a power vacuum left by the death of Islam Karimov, independent Uzbekistan’s only president, last week.

According to Uzbekistan’s Constitution, the next-in-line for the top job, at least on a temporary basis, was the speaker of the Senate, Nigmatilla Yuldashev.

During a parliament session to name the acting president, though, Mr Yuldashev declined to take the job, saying that wasn’t experienced enough. Instead he endorsed Mr Mirziyoyev.

PM since 2003, the 59-year-old Mirziyoyev was born in Samarkand, also Karimov’s birthplace.

He was considered Karimov’s righthand-man and a like-for-like successor. Mr Mirziyoyev had already acted presidential during the mourning ceremonies after Karimov’s death, meeting with the world leaders who visited Samarkand for the funeral.

The last to visit was Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who said that stability and good relations were the chief objectives of his country’s relations with Uzbekistan (Sept. 6).

In Samarkand, Mr Putin appeared to endorse Mr Mirziyoyev, making all-but-certain that he would take over the top job.

“Of course, we hope that everything Islam Abduganiyevich (Karimov) had started will be continued,” he was quoted by Russian media as saying. “For our part, we will do everything to support this path of mutual development and the people and leadership of Uzbekistan. You can fully count on us as your most reliable friends.”

And Mr Mirziyoyev is likely to continue many of his predecessor’s policies which will worry human rights groups who have criticised the Uzbek leadership for presiding over one of the most repressive regimes in the world.

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(News report from Issue No. 295, published on Sept. 9 2016)

Tajik opposition leader placed on Interpol’s wanted list

SEPT. 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Mukhiddin Kabiri, leader-in-exile of the banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), was placed on the Interpol wanted list. The Tajik government accuses Mr Kabiri of terrorism and fraud. Over the past year, it has accused the IRPT of an attempted coup previously and arrested its leaders.

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(News report from Issue No. 295, published on Sept. 9 2016)

Succession speculation stirs in Kazakhstan after reshuffle

ASTANA, SEPT. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev shifted Karim Massimov, one of his closest allies, from PM to head the country’s security services, an unexpected reshuffle that may prepare the way for a more significant promotion linked to his succession plans.

Bakhytzhan Sagintayev, previously a deputy PM, was appointed interim PM but he is likely to make way when Mr Nazarbayev proposes a new PM to parliament, which MPs will then rubber-stamp.

Dariga Nazarbayeva, Mr Nazarbayev’s daughter, who was named deputy PM one year ago is touted as a potential new PM and possible next president. Analysts have discussed other high-profile Kazakh officials but she is considered a front runner. Mr Nazarbayev is 76-years-old and his apparent lack of a succession plan was highlighted by the unexpected death this month of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s president.

Mr Massimov had served for the second time as Kazakh PM since April 2014. His move to the head the security services will help Mr Nazarbayev maintain his authority over the apparatus, considered essential for maintaining control over the country. Vladimir Zhumakanov, who had been head of the Security Service since December 2015, was appointed advisor to the president.

Mr Sagintayev, the interim PM, is a career bureaucrat who had been head of the Zhambyl region before becoming, briefly, in 2012 and 2013 Kazakhstan’s economy minister and then a deputy PM.

He is clearly trusted and was appointed head of the Kazakh atomic agency in 2015 after the death of one of Mr Nazarbayev’s favourites, Nurlan Kapparov.

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(News report from Issue No. 295, published on Sept. 9 2016)

Tajik opposition leader freed

SEPT. 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A Tajik court freed a high-ranking member of the Islamic Renaissance Party as part of a mass amnesty. Zurafo Rakhmoni was the only high-ranking woman arrested last year after an alleged attempted coup. She was serving a two-year sentence. More than 12,000 prisoners were freed in the amnesty. Ms Rakhmoni was the only one to be freed among jailed IRPT leaders.

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(News report from Issue No. 295, published on Sept. 9 2016)

Uzbeks worry about the future

BISHKEK, AUG. 31 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Human rights activists and Western analysts have lauded the death of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s only post-Soviet leader and a man they detest for his cruel human rights abuses, but many ordinary Uzbeks are more worried about the potential instability that could follow.

A Conway Bulletin correspondent in Bishkek spoke to people in Uzbekistan who all said that Karimov’s death this week from a stroke was a worrying moment for the country.

Murodjan, a 26-year-old businessman who lives in the southern Uzbek city of Gulistan, said Karimov had done a lot for Uzbekistan.

“Any young politician who comes after him will struggle to maintain stability,” he told the Bulletin.

During his 25-year reign, Mr Karimov often talked up the dangers posed by Islamic radicals. His opponents said that he played the security card too strongly and that it was simply an excuse to crackdown on dissidents. They said that massive human rights abuses showed what a tyrant he was.

And yet the West appreciated the stability Mr Karimov was able to impose, using Uzbekistan as a key transit route for sending military kit into and out of neighbouring Afghanistan during NATO’s war against the Taliban.

Abror, 24, who lives in Tahskent, told the Bulletin before confirmation of Karimov’s death that he hoped the news was wrong.

“The authorities informed us that his health state is stable, I really hope this is the case,” he said.

He will be disappointed.

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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)

Uzbek President Karimov dies

SEPT. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan declared that President Islam Karimov, its first and only leader since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, had died.

Throughout Friday speculation had been mounting that Karimov, who was 78, had died after a stroke six days earlier but it took until around 10pm local time for Uzbekistan’s government to confirmed it.

“On September 2 2016 after a long illness, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, an outstanding statesman and politician, died,” the Interfax news agency quoted from an official statement.

A news reader on an Uzbek government station later said that the funeral would be held on Saturday Sept. 3 and that there would be three days of official mourning.

Karimov was reviled by human rights activists for his abuses and cruelty but Western governments, and many Uzbeks, appreciated the stability that he imposed, although often through repressive police operations, on Central Asia’s most populous country.

After independence in 1991, Karimov steadily increased the state’s control over the country, forfeiting its natural place as Central Asia’s economic and cultural hub to neighbouring Almaty in Kazakhstan by closing off its people and its economy.

Karimov brooked no dissent. Dissidents and opposition were imprisoned and beaten. In 2005 Uzbek soldiers shot dead an estimated 300 people protesting against the government in the eastern town of Andijan.

The question now for Uzbekistan is who takes over. Karimov didn’t, publicly at least, lay out a succession plan and his eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova, who had been considered his natural successor has been under house arrest since 2014.

Media reported that PM Shavkat Mirziyoev had been appointed to head Karimov’s funeral committee. Some analysts said that this indicated that he was headed for the top job.

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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)

Comment: Uzbekistan’s quiet handover of power

SEPT. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — After years of jostling, the real battle for power in a post-Karimov Uzbekistan has started.

President Islam Karimov, who has ruled since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, has died after suffering a stroke. Officially this means that the Speaker of the Senate, Nigmatulla Yuldashev, will take over for three months. Long-term, though, the picture is more complicated.

Uzbekistan has been in the throes of a proxy war over succession for two years, ever since Karimov’s eldest daughter Gulnara Karimova was placed under house arrest and her closest associates imprisoned for financial crimes. She had been seen as Karimov’s natural, if unpopular, heir-apparent.

Her fall from grace left PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Rustam Azimov, the finance minister, as the front runners for the top job.

The orchestrator-in-chief, it was assumed, was Rustam Inoyatov, the Uzbek secret police chief, who popped up in a rare photo during a visit to China in 2014. Reports from Uzbekistan, a notoriously repressive and reclusive regime, have suggested that he has been keeping a lid as best as possible on warring factions within the elite.

Certainly, Karimov appears to have played a reduced role in organising his succession since 2014. It is doubtful he ever wanted to place Gulnara, the daughter he doted over, under house arrest.

Gulnara’s sister, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, has been the most vocal senior Uzbek over Karimov’s illness but she has little support and lives in Europe and has previously shown no interest in power.

So, it’s likely the Uzbek regime will agree on an insider to take over from Karimov, either one of the front-runners or – and perhaps this is more likely – an obscure bureaucrat who comes with neither a power base nor an agenda. A compromise figure acceptable to Uzbekistan’s power-groups.

This method has been tried and tested with relative success in Central Asia previously with the handover of power to Kurbangbuly Berdymukhamedov, an obscure former dentist, in Turkmenistan when Saparmurat Niyazov died suddenly in 2006. Berdymukhamedov has opened up Turkmenistan’s economy and made it a major source of gas to China. He has also built up a fairly serious personality cult.

Uzbekistan is a more complicated country than Turkmenistan but the power brokers inside the Uzbek government trying to work out their post-Karimov game plan do have a Turkmen blueprint to work from.

They may well choose to follow it.

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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)

Kyrgyz president snubs predecessor

AUG. 31 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Former Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbayeva walked out of a speech being delivered by the current President Almazbek Atambayev, her protege and successor, after he criticised her for approving a constitution which he has said is flawed. The rare public putdown of Ms Otunbayeva, who ruled as an interim president after a revolution in 2010 until 2011, was delivered at a ceremony to mark the 25th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union. Kyrgyzstan is to hold a referendum later this year on tweaks to the constitution which Mr Atambayev is said are essential.

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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)

Kyrgyz court jails opposition leader

AUG. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A Kyrgyz court sentenced opposition figure and IS sympathiser Nurlan Mutoyev to seven years in jail after he was found guilty of terrorism and inciting ethnic hatred. In May, Mutoyev was arrested after a rally in Bishkek. He stands for the establishment of the strict Islamic Shari’a law in Kyrgyzstan. His arrest was triggered by his open support for the IS group during the rally.

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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)