Tag Archives: election

ODHIR starts short-term mission in Uzbekistan

NOV. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE’s election monitoring arm, ODHIR, started its short-term mission in Uzbekistan ahead of the Dec. 4 presidential election. ODHIR’s long-term mission has been in Uzbekistan since the start of November. This is its biggest ever mission to Uzbekistan, where ODHIR has never judged an election to be either free or fair. Islam Karimov died in September after ruling the country for 25 years.

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(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)

Georgian PM unveils new cabinet

NOV. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili unveiled his new cabinet following the Georgian Dream coalition’s parliamentary election victory last month with only one major change. Dimitri Kumsishvili, the former economy minister, has been promoted to the more important position of finance minister. Mr Kumsishvili is one of a number of cabinet ministers who used to work at Bidzina Ivanizhvili’s Kartu bank. Mr Ivanishvili is the power behind the Georgian coalition. Kakha Kaladze, who under election rules, formerly resigned his ministerial position to fight for re-election in parliament, was reappointed as energy minister.

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(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Georgian Dream secures massive election victory

TBILISI, OCT. 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Georgian Dream coalition won 48 of the 50 run-offs in majoritarian seats, securing a large enough majority to change Georgia’s constitution without needing support from other parties.

The run-off seats won by Georgian Dream were added to the 67 seats it won in the first round of voting on Oct. 8, giving it control of 115 seats in the 150-seat parliament, smashing their arch rivals the United National Movement party (UNM).

Georgia’s politics are notoriously fractious and while supporters of the Georgian Dream, led by billionaire and former PM Bidzina Ivanishvili, celebrated, election observers were wary of the powers they now wield over the constitution. Ignacio Sanchez Amor, head of the short- term OSCE observer mission, said a constitutional majority brought responsibility.

“The balance of power must be properly observed and rights of minorities must be at the centre of any discussion if there are constitutional changes,” media quoted him as saying.

Alongside the Georgian Dream, the Industrialists party and an independent candidate both won a seat. The UNM, the party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, finished with the 27 seats, a disappointing result for the party which had talked up the chances of making a comeback and winning back control of parliament. It lost a 2012 parliamentary election to the Georgian Dream.

Dustin Gilbreath, a policy analyst at the Caucasus Research Resource Centre, said the UNM can still recover as a political power but it would be difficult.

“They can continue as a major opposition party, but they need to rebrand. I think they have the potential to stay in Georgian politics in the long run, but they first need to make things works internally”, he said.

Away from the celebrating Georgian Dream supporters, people in Tbilisi, people were worried about the lack of checks on its powers.

Levani, who runs a small grocery store in the city centre, said: “It’s just a disaster. The political stagnation that we witnessed in the last four years is bound to worsen now that no political actor has the power to compel them to act.”

Another Tbilisi resident, Ketino, agreed even though she had voted for the Georgian Dream. “I voted for them to avoid the return of UNM. Nothing good can come out from having too much power,” she said.

Georgian Dream, considered traditional and close to the Orthodox Church, has already said that it wants to change the constitution to enshrine marriage as a union only between a man and a woman.

The Orthodox Church is staunchly against gay rights and many of the Georgian Dreams’ supporters have been pushing to change Georgia’s constitution to reflect this attitude.

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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Georgian Dream’s election victory

NOV. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> This has been a long election period in Georgia. Is it finally over?

>> I agree, it really has felt like a long process. This is partly because of the long campaign build up and partly because of Georgia’s complicated electoral system. There have been two main election rounds. The first on Oct. 8 was nationwide and included both a proportional representation element and a majoritarian element. At the end of this process, there were 50 seats which still had not elected a majoritarian MP. In these seats the top two candidates went head-to- head in a run-off on Oct. 31, giving the final tally.

>> Right. So to win a majoritarian seat you have to poll more than 50% of the votes. Is that right?

>> Yes, that’s right. A majoritarian seat, as the name suggests, is not a simple first-past-the-post system. The winner needs to poll more than half the votes, that’s why 50 seats needed a run-off.

>> So what is the final result? What is the breakdown?

>> Overall, the Georgian Dream won 115 seats out of the 150-seat parliament. This means they passed the 113-seat hurdle they needed to clear to allow them to change the constitution without relying on support from other parties. Georgian Dream won around 48% of the vote but the majoritarian system handed them a large majority. In 2012 the Georgian Dream won 85 seats, so this election represents a major success for them. By contrast the United National Movement party of Mikheil Saakashvili saw the number of seats it won collapse to 27 from 65. It was a disastrous election for them. Despite their fighting talk in the build up to the vote, voters essentially rejected the UNM and any possibility of a return to mainstream Georgian politics for Mikheil Saakashvili. He is currently the governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine. He’ll probably stay there for some time.

>> Is this it for the UNM, then?

>> That’s unclear but they need to have a major rebrand and to drop Saakashvili from their image. He comes with serious baggage, not least dire relations with Russia and allegations of torture in prisons during his time as president. The problem for the UNM is that he is such a dominating personality it might not be possible to just ditch him. To come back from that would represent quite a feat.

>> And, wasn’t there another party which did reasonably well?

>> Yes, the nationalistic and traditional Alliance of Patriots came up on the inside, unnoticed. It came third with just over 5% of the vote, giving it six seats in parliament. They are to the right of the Georgian Dream in their politics. The Industrialists party and an independent also won a seat each through the majoritarian system.

>> This gets complicated. So what does all this mean for Georgia?

>> Essentially this election confirms the Georgian Dream’s utter dominance. This is a crushing victory. On a policy level, the Georgian Dream has a constitutional majority to changes things as much as they want. They have already ripped up the form book in politics and they may want to do the same with society. They now have the power to do this and they have started already by promoting a change in the constitution that locks down marriage as an act only between man and woman. Georgian Dream has an agenda. They now have a four year window to impact how Georgian society operates. Expect some radical policies to come out of Georgia’s government in these four years.

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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

OSCE starts monitoring Uzbek election

TASHKENT, NOV. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE, Europe’s democracy watchdog, started its first long-term vote observation mission in Uzbekistan ahead of a presidential election on Dec. 4

ODHIR, the OSCE’s vote monitoring unit, has only previously sent short-term missions to Uzbekistan.

In a statement, ODHIR said the government had invited it to send a long-term monitoring team. This is important because it adds more weight to the impression that Uzbekistan is adopting an outward- looking agenda since the death of Islam Karimov in September. He was regarded as difficult to deal with and mistrustful of the West.

ODHIR will send a 15-person team headed by Swedish diplomat Peter Tejler to Tashkent and 20 more people will be dispatched to the regions.

Another 250 observers will be sent to Uzbekistan a few days before the vote on Dec. 4.

Last year, ODHIR sent a short term mission to monitor a presidential election. They reported that the election had lacked competition and contravened the rule of law.

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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Success of conservative party reflects Georgian society

TBILISI, OCT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The success of the Alliance of Patriots party in Georgia’s parliamentary election this month underlines the spread of conservative views amongst ordinary Georgians, analysts said.

The group, set up in 2012, became the first minor party under a new constitution to break through the 5% barrier to automatically win six seats through the proportional representation element of the election in the 150 seat parliament.

The Alliance of Patriots sees itself as staunchly pro-religion and nationalistic, views which, Tbilisi-based analyst Zaal Anjaparidze said, were reflective of a shift in public opinion.

“Opinion polls in Georgia for the last four years have been showing some rise in Euro sceptic thinking and the alienation of parts of Georgian society from liberal values,” he told The Bulletin, views held by other Georgian political commentators.

“They have succeeded in occupying this niche and capitalising on it during the election campaign.”

The Alliance of Patriots may also have an influential role to play in the next parliament as natural allies of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition which is also close to the Orthodox Church. Many of the Georgian Dream’s supporters have said that they want to change the Georgian constitution to state that marriage can only be between a man and woman.

Detractors of the constitutional amendments say it is discriminatory, anti-liberal and contrary to the values of the EU which Georgia aspires to join but its supporters know they have the backing of a large section of the public, as reflected by the success of the Georgian Dream and the Alli- ance of Patriots.

In Tbilisi, Soso, a scientist, reflected the views of many people.

“Before being an Orthodox Christian, I am Georgian,” he said. “Same sex marriage is against our tradition, our beliefs and against the true essence of being Georgian. Such an amendment is absolutely necessary.”

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

A presidential election in Turkmenistan

OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> So, an election in Turkmenistan then. Will it be close?

>> No, not at all. The incumbent president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, will clean up and win probably with more than 95% of the vote. He won 97% of the vote at the last presidential election in 2012.

>> Right. He must be a popular chap, then.

>> Again, unlikely, but it is very hard to tell. Since he was officially elected president in January 2007, Berdymukhamedov has carefully built up a personality cult to rival any other around the world. Last year he unveiled a statue of himself sitting on a horse with a flowing cloak. It was all very Roman. Berdymukhamedov pretty much makes all the key decisions in Turkmenistan. He runs the the economic, foreign and domestic policies. He’s not a big delegator. The problem is that it is very difficult to know how genuinely popular, or unpopular, he is at the moment as free media doesn’t exist in Turkmenistan. What we do know is that although Berdymukhamedov can take credit for opening up the economy and for developing its gas export routes, Turkmenistan is suffering, just like its neighbours, from a sharp regional economic downturn linked a drop in energy prices and a recession in Russia.

>> What do you mean?

>> Again, information that is 100% reliable is hard to come by but we do know that government salaries have been paid late and that people are blocked from transferring cash into foreign currencies. There have also been a handful of small protests in the past couple of years in Ashgabat which are vitally important in judging the mood. These have focused on domestic issues, such as satellite dishes on buildings and the destruction of suburban housing to clear ground for a new Olympic village. They are not directly political but they are good indicators that not all is as steady as the Turkmen government, and Berdymukhamedov in particular, would like. Protests are extremely rare in Turkmenistan so any indicator that people are prepared to stand up to the authorities must be taken seriously.

>> Does this make the election is risky for Berdymukhamedov?

>> Turkmenistan is a tightly controlled police state so this is unlikely. He also had to hold a presidential election next year. Until he changed the constitution last month, presidential terms in Turkmenistan were set at five years. The previous election was in 2012. He’s now changed the length of a presidential term to seven years so once next February’s election is out of the way, he won’t have to deal with another until 2024. This election will be something for the Turkmen authorities to carefully manage but beyond that it shouldn’t trigger any major problems.

>> Got it. And how will the international community deal with it?

>> This is a tricky one. The Russians and the Chinese mainly want a reliable partner and stability. They have this in Berdymukhmaedov and won’t want the the boat to be rocked, so to speak. The West, and Europe in particular, have a different agenda. They want Turkmenistan’s gas but are also interested in human rights. It’s unlikely that they will send vote monitors and they will complain about the lack of free speech but, by and large, there is very little that they can really do.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgia’s election committee sets run-offs

OCT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Election Commission set Oct. 30 as the date for run- offs in at least 48 single mandate seats which failed to return a majority winner in a parliamentary election on Oct. 8. The vote is important because, although the Georgian Dream is all-but certain to win a majority in the 150-seat parliament, if it wins a total of 113 seats it will be able to make constitutional changes.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Turkmen President calls a presidential election

OCT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov called an election for Feb. 12, barely a month after he tweaked the country’s constitution to allow him to rule for life.

Mr Berdymukhamedov, who won a presidential election in 2012 with 97% of the vote, is expected to easily win next year’s vote, his third election since winning power in 2007.

But like the rest of the region, Turkmenistan’s economy has been creaking under a slump in global energy prices. This could make the election more complicated than previous votes.

Last month the 59-year-old Mr Berdymukhamedov removed an age cap of 70-years from the Turkmen constitution and also extended presidential terms to seven from five years, inline with many of his Central Asian peers.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgian Dream defeats UNM in parliamentary election

TBILISI, OCT. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The ruling Georgian Dream coalition government easily won a parliamentary election in Georgia with nearly 50% of the vote, almost double the votes won by the United National Movement party (UNM) of former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The result confirms Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire bankroller of the Georgian Dream, as the most influential man in the country.

“Instead of a government with confused members, Georgia genuinely has the government that is devoted to people,” he said after victory was declared.

It also, importantly, puts Georgia on an increasingly conservative and pro-Russia trajectory.

The Georgian Dream has allied itself to the Georgian Orthodox Church a staunchly conservative, and influential, institution that abhors homosexuality.

The conservative direction of the new Georgian parliament was bolstered by the entry of the staunchly nationalist and religious Alliance of Patriots for the first time. They cleared the 5% barrier in the proportional representation element of the vote to secure seats in the 150-seat parliament.

The Georgian Dream coalition, now officially headed by PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili , won its first election four years ago, beating the UNM. This year’s election had been dubbed a grudge re-match between the two parties with Mr Ivanishvili and Mr Saakashvili playing Machiavellian roles from the sidelines.

From Ukraine, where he is governor of the Odessa region, Mr Saakashvili said the election had been fixed. “This election was fabricated through many forms of manipulation to get a final result which would bring absolute victory to Georgian Dream,” he said.

But ODIHR, the OSCE’s main election watchdog, said the election had been largely free and fair.

“Strongly competitive and well- run, yesterday’s elections offered an opportunity for voters to make informed choices about their options in a pluralistic but polarized media environment,” Ignacio Sanchez Amor, the leader of the short-term OSCE observer mission, said.

The Central Election Commission said that turnout was around 51%.

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(News report from Issue No. 300, published on Oct. 14 2016)