Tag Archives: election

Georgian government survives vote

MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s government easily survived a no-confidence vote in parliament triggered by the resignation of a minister earlier this month, meaning that PM Irakli Garbashvili remains in power.

Mr Garbashvili, part of the Georgian Dream coalition that turfed out former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s party from power, appointed four new ministers, including Tina Khidasheli as the country’s first female defence minister.

Importantly, even though Mr Garbashvili’s government won the no-confidence vote 87-38, it would still have damaged the government’s credibility.

The Georgian Dream has been beset by bickering and in- fighting and its popularity has plummeted as a regional economic recession batters Georgia. Its currency has slid 32% against the dollar.

Alongside Ms Khidasheli, Mr Garbashvili appointed Gigla Agulashvili as environment minister, Nodar Javakhishvili as infrastructure minister and Tariel Khechikashvili as minister for sport.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)

Support slips for Georgian Dream

MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an opinion poll for the National Democratic Institute in Georgia, only 24% of respondents said they would vote for the ruling Georgian Dream Coalition. The poll is another blow to the authority of the coalition.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)

Kazakh PM keeps position

APRIL 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev reappointed Karim Massimov as his PM after officially being sworn in as Kazakhstan’s leader. As a formality, the PM and all the ministers have to resign after a presidential election.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)

Kazakhstan elects Nazarbayev as president for fifth time

>>Real question facing Kazakhstan is what happens next

APRIL 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Nursultan Nazarbayev won a fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan with a 97.7% share of the vote.

Western election monitors complained that there had been little, or no, real opposition. The only two alternative candidates to Mr Nazarbayev both supported his re-election.

Not that this seemed to bother Mr Nazarbayev.

“I’m sorry that these numbers may seem inadmissible to super- democratic countries. But there is nothing I can do about them. Had I interfered, that would have been anti-democratic,” he said according to reports.

The key now — for interested observers of Kazakhstan’s business, political and social scenes — is to watch out for what happens next. Mr Nazarbayev and his close band of elites called an early election to impose his authority over the country at an increasingly difficult period. The economy is under pressure from a drop in oil prices and a sharp fall in Russia’s economic vitality. This has generated pressure on the Kazakh tenge to devalue,

<<Election was a prelude to more important decisions <<

With a successful election, now may be the opportune time for Kazakhstan to devalue its currency without triggering social upheaval.

And then, of course, there is the question of succession. At 74-years-old, Mr Nazarbayev’s years in office are probably numbered. He has yet to anoint a successor. Now, though, may be his chance.

The 2015 presidential election is most likely a prelude to more important decisions facing Kazakhstan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)

Massimov re-affirmed as Kazakh PM

APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a constitutional formality, the Kazakh government resigned immediately after Nursultan Nazerbayev was re-elected as president for the fifth time. He re-appointed his trusted lieutenant Karim Massimov as PM, ensuring stability in the government.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)

No devaluation, says Kazakh President

APRIL 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev dismissed rumours a devaluation of the tenge was now imminent after he had won another election. “There are no such plans,” he said at a news conference. The tenge has come under enormous pressure to devalue because of a fall in oil prices and a drop in the Russian rouble.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)

Georgia is heading for a close parliamentary election

APRIL 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest polling by the International Republican Institute (IRI), makes uneasy reading for the Georgian Dream coalition.

The poll, released in late March, shows support for Georgian Dream dropping to 35%. This is bad news for Georgian Dream, but so is the story told by the other numbers: 14% of likely voters say they support the United National Movement (UNM) of ex-president Saakashvili, 12% say they support nobody, and 11% refused to answer.

If these numbers look familiar to Georgian Dream politicians, it’s because they are disturbingly similar to a poll taken in summer 2012 by IRI’s sister organization, the National Democratic Institute (NDI). That poll, now infamous in Georgian political history, was the last taken before Georgian Dream swept to victory in November 2012, and everybody interpreted it all wrong.

In summer 2012, 37% said they’d vote for the incumbent UNM, while 12% responded Georgian Dream. When Georgian Dream went on to win almost 60% on the day pollsters were flummoxed, and many uncharitably said NDI were in cahoots with the UNM. In fact, that poll revealed much more about Georgian’s voting habits than anyone expected. 22% of respondents said they did not know who to vote for, and 21% refused to answer. Fear, embarrassment and a mistrust of polling organizations had led 43% of Georgians to keep their opinions to themselves. On the election day, this 43% gave their votes to Georgian Dream and surprised everyone by precipitating Georgia’s first peaceful transfer of power.

The same thing is happening in reverse in the latest IRI poll. The UNM scored over 20% in elections in 2013 and 2014, and today’s sluggish economy and devalued lari mean more people now miss the Saakashvili era.

If the 23% of respondents who refused to answer or said they support no one are really hidden UNM voters, it would take UNM support up to 37%, about the same as Georgian Dream.

There is a long way to go before the next parliamentary elections in 2016, but if the polls are to be believed, and if you know how to read them, it is shaping up tobea closer race than many would like to believe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Kazakhstan builds up an election

APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan prepared for a presidential election on April 26 that will extend the 26-year rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s only post-Soviet leader. He called an election to impose his authority during an economic downturn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Uzbek som drops after Karimov election win

APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek sum dropped by 17% on the black market immediately after incumbent president Islam Karimov won a presidential election at the end of last month, data showed.

In Uzbekistan, the black market is vital to monitor as it most accurately tracks the value of the sum against the US dollar. Bank rates are fixed.

Uzmetronom, an independent news source, said the sum is trading at 4,200-4,500 sums per $1 on the black market, double the official rate. The website didn’t give any reasons why the sum had fallen so sharply after the election. Generally, though, the drop in remittance from Russia, the fall in energy prices and a fall in the value of the rouble have pressured the sum’s value.

Prices for basic goods are also rising, which is putting pressure on minimum wage workers.

Elections in both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this spring were supposed to bring about stability and reinforce trust. Instead, though, they may be bringing more instability.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)

Karimov wins Uzbek presidential election

MARCH 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Without any irony, apparently, the authorities in Uzbekistan declared Islam Krimov the winner of a presidential election on Sunday with 90% of the vote.

This is the fourth consecutive presidential election that the 77-year-old Mr Karimov has won since the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s also the fourth consecutive election Western observers said was unfair. The other candidates, Western observers said, all supported Mr Karimov.

The reality is that the presidential election was a choreographed affair design to impose top-down stability over the country as it grapples with worsening economic conditions across the region.

It was also designed, at least in the short-term, to put an end to any chat of succession or replacing Mr Karimov. Last year his eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova, who was once widely feared, lost her grip on power and is now under house arrest. Her closest associates are in prison, found guilty of various economic crimes.

The biggest question for Uzbekistan and Central Asia is how the Uzbek elite replace Mr Karimov. For years there has been speculation about his health and although he played a high-profile role in the election he disappeared from view just before campaigning began.

The next few years are vital for sorting out a smooth transition of power.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)