Tag Archives: currency

Kyrgyz som slips to new low

SEPT. 16 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s som dropped to its lowest level against the US dollar since independence, forcing the Central Bank to step in to brake its fall.

At exchange kiosks in Bishkek, the som traded at 72/$1 before recovering to around 69/$1 after the Central Bank’s intervention. Still, the fall in the som, now down 13% in the past month, has pushed up inflation and worried people.

“Food is getting more expensive, it definitely reflects on the family budget,” a 52-year-old man who declined to be named said as he left a supermarket in central Bishkek.

When the Kyrgyz government pushed the country into the Russia- led Eurasian Economic Union last month it said food prices would fall.

Emil Umetaliev, a Bishkek-based analyst, said this promise has been shown to be empty. “How can they be cheaper if in Russia they are getting more expensive because of an internal crisis?” he said.

To stop the slide, the Central Bank bought $18m worth of som but a source at the Bank told the Bulletin officials were anxious.

“The Bank made intervention but it did not particularly affect such a fast growth of dollar,” she said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Kyrgyzstan should diversify assets

SEPT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz should diversify their assets, including cash, to protect themselves from the sharp swings in the value of currencies and commodities, Raushan Seitkazimova, head of the Central Bank’s monetary control unit, told media. The value of the Kyrgyz som has been fluctuating wildly, over the past few months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Kazakhstan’s CBank halts tenge slide

SEPT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s Central Bank intervened in the money markets to stop the tenge from dropping below 270/$1. Kairat Kelimbetov, the Central Bank chief, had told the FT earlier in the week that the Bank would not intervene again after it ditched a peg to the US dollar last month. The tenge is now trading around 266/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

China buys Tajik somoni

SEPT. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – China agreed to buy $470m worth of Tajik somoni, media reported, a currency swap designed to prop up Tajikistan’s weakening currency. The somoni has been losing value this year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)

Teachers in Kazakhstan to receive 50% pay rise

SEPT. 8 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s government said that it would increase salaries for teachers by 20-50% depending on their qualifications, another indication that the devaluation of the tenge is spurring inflation.

Announcing the pay rise at a school in Astana, deputy PM Berdybek Saparbayev said that it showed the government cared about its workers. “We have very good news for our teachers,” media quoted him as saying. “Salaries will be increased from 20 to 50% starting from 2016.”

The Kazakh Central Bank has devalued the tenge twice since February 2014.

It is now worth around 40% less than it was before the first devaluation and economists have been warning that inflation will shoot up.

Companies have already been raising salaries and it was only a matter of time before the government put up pay for its thousands of employees.

Other key workers, such as doctors and nurses, have also been promised large tenge pay rises.

The problem for the Kazakh government is that with oil prices low and production declining, it may struggle to pay or all the rises.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)

Currency: Kyrgyz som, Kazakh tenge

SEPT. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge and the Kyrgyz som dropped to record lows this week, as economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus continued to show structural weaknesses.

By the end of Friday, the tenge traded at around 264/$1, down from 240/$1 at the start of the week. That’s a drop of 10%. The Kyrgyz som fared slightly better but still dropped through the 67/$1 barrier. A week earlier it had traded at around 65.5/$1.

Over the border in Tajikistan, the somoni held its own. This may have had something to do with a massive cash injection from China. It agreed to buy 3b yuan ($470m) worth of somoni in a so called currency swap deal. This is a thinly disguised mechanism to prop up the ailing somoni which has lost 17% of its value this year.

In the South Caucasus the currencies were broadly stable, although the Georgian lari lost some ground, falling to around 2.40/$1 compared with a price of around 2.36/$1 a week earlier.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)

Azerbaijani C.Bank spent $1.2b in August defending manat

SEPT. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Central Bank spent nearly $1.2b defending the value of it manat currency in August despite devaluing it by a third earlier in the year.

With oil prices, the key driver of Azerbaijan’s economy, stubbornly hovering around 7-year lows, the data will add more pressure onto the currency and suggests that another devaluation may be possible. Across the Caspian Sea, oil-exporter Kazakhstan effectively devalued its currency for a second time last month after trying to defend it for over a year.

Reuters quoted a high-placed source at the Azerbaijani Central Bank as saying: “August 2015 was difficult from a financial point of view. The economies of large countries of the world declined and the price of oil also fell on world markets, which influenced the state of the manat.”

The Central Bank data showed that its reserves had fallen to $7.31b by the end of August from $8.5b at the end of July.

The South Caucasus and Central Asia region is trying to cope with a sharp decline in its economy. Suppressed oil prices and a recession in Russia have dragged down growth. Azerbaijan with its dependency on oil has suffered more than most.

The latest data means that the Azerbaijani Central Bank has spent 42% of its total reserves this year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)

Devaluation worries in Kazakh economy

SEPT. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Umut Shayakhmetova, chairman of Halyk Bank, said the devaluation of the tenge last month would hit businesses hard and that the impact would be heavier than a devaluation in 2014. “It will affect the economy. Our clients will experience a drop in sales,” media quoted her as saying at a press conference.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)

Currencies: Kyrgyz som falls to lowest level in a decade

SEPT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kyrgyz som lost 5.4% of its value on Sept. 1 falling to 66 som to $1, the biggest fall by any currency in Central Asia and the South Caucasus over the past week and the lowest value for the som against the US dollar for at least a decade.

This was also the som’s biggest one-day loss since March 2014. The Kyrgyz government, like the rest of Central Asia, has been battling to defend its currency against a sharp fall in the value of the Russian rouble, still the main driver of regional economic growth.

It’s unclear what pressured the Kyrgyz som to fall so severely but a few days earlier the head of the Central Bank Tolkunbek Abdygulov had said that the currency had dropped by 10.3% in 2015 despite the the government spending nearly $180m to protect its value.

“The National Bank will have enough reserves to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate of the som. Now the situation on the market is stable. There are no reasons for anxiety and panic,” media quoted Mr Abdygulov as saying on Aug. 25.

His statement and the subsequent fall in the value of the som suggest that the Kyrgyz Central Bank may be struggling to maintain its value.

Across the border in Kazakhstan, the Kazakh tenge has been stable at a level of 242/$1 during the past week, down from the a high of 252/$1 in August. The Kazakh Central Bank’s decision to adopt a new benchmark interest rate policy on Sept. 2, did not appear to have a significant impact on the exchange rate.

Elsewhere in Central Asia, the Tajik somoni and the Uzbek sum remained substantially unchanged. Currencies in the South Caucasus kept their against the US dollar throughout the week, fluctuating by just 1%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)

Comment: Kazakhs steady themselves for the impact of Devaluation 2

SEPT. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Timing is everything and fortune favoured me last month.

By chance, I flew into Almaty 24 hours after Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Central Bank chief Kairat Kelimbetov had released the tenge from its US dollar peg.

This effectively triggered a 23% devaluation of the currency. I would be able to experience Ground Zero in the latest Emerging Markets currency crisis. If you’re a journalist, this is a good thing.

But if my timing had been fortunate, Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Kelimbetov hadn’t been so lucky. They had overseen an earlier devaluation of the tenge, let’s call this Devaluation 1, which hadn’t worked out. The current currency crisis, Devaluation 2, is a direct result of this mismanagement.

Without warning Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Kelimbetov had devalued the tenge by 20% in February 2014, hoping to make the Kazakh economy more competitive. The timing was poor, though, and within weeks Russia had become a pariah state in the eyes of the West because of its support for rebels in east Ukraine. Sanctions followed, denting Russia which is still the main economic driver in Central Asia. Within another six months oil prices collapsed and the Russian rouble went into free-fall.

The original Nazarbayev-Kelimbetov devaluation strategy, was undermined.

And this forced them into a corner. Defying economic logic and trying to rescue their own pride, they defended the new tenge-dollar peg despite neighbouring currencies sinking and oil prices flat-lining.

In the end, Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Kelimbetov bowed to the inevitable. The tenge is now around 39% cheaper than it was in January 2014.

On the streets of Almaty, ordinary Kazakhs generally greeted the devaluation with a shrug. There was also a palpable sense of relief. A second devaluation was always going to happen. The day after the devaluation, the run on the exchange kiosks was for tenge which signalled that most people thought it had bottomed out and wouldn’t devalue further.

And, crucially, it felt as if people had seen it all before.

We know what is going to happen next. The fallout from Devaluation 1 will guide us through the fallout from Devaluation 2. There will be price inflation, followed by salary rises. There will be job losses and the competitiveness generated by the devaluation will recede.

The major difference now is that the tenge currency is, theoretically at least, floating free.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)